November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[TT-SEA]

Totally dry here this morning... no rain overnight.    Looks like the next couple days are basically dry up here.   SE WA has been under that moisture band since yesterday and its still going strong.    Its been raining in Pullman for about 36 hours straight now.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. 

You should move into that neighborhood... no more commute!

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. 

New job or did your office move?

[Doinko]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one.

Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn.

 

I'm hoping this Novemember cold verifies too. I also remember you saying earlier that you were feeling November here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. 

Hopefully the new gig treats you well my man!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You should move into that neighborhood... no more commute!

For real, my commute just went from 40 minutes to an hour. 

 

7 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

New job or did your office move?

New job. A promotion of sorts. Will still be at the old office once a week. 

Edited November 1, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[LowerGarfield]

Still raining a bunch but we're somewhere past .6

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In other news I’m taking a wait and see approach in regards to next week. Could potentially see some flakes tomorrow morning. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I’m waiting for m’lady to come out of surgery. Y’all got QB for the morning GFS?

[Terreboner]

Expecting a NowCast pretty soon.  Looks like this band is overperforming here considering NWS had us as a rain/snow mix at best.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Terreboner said:

Expecting a NowCast pretty soon.  Looks like this band is overperforming here considering NWS had us as a rain/snow mix at best.

If events regularly overperform then this winter will become even more memorable.

[Skagit Weather]

37F here this morning. Looks like the next couple mornings could approach freezing so I might have to do a final collection of the remaining summer crops in the garden.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

For an event that's still a week out, I have amazingly high confidence we are about to see some significantly colder weather, complete with lowland snow chances. What is unfolding in the models is just so much like most other recent arctic blasts for me to think otherwise.

The GFS often picks up on arctic blast signals first, to be followed by other models coming on board later. Just like we are seeing now. The GFS also typically ridiculously overdoes the lowland cold and snow. It almost always calls for record or near-record temperatures in this sort of situation. If we are lucky, we just might see Olympia or Arlington drop into the single digits… and we probably won't be that lucky. No way is SEA or PDX going to see temperatures like that. Even BLI is almost certain to not see single digits on this one. Most of us won’t see temperatures colder than about 25˚F. And that is still impressively cold for early November.

[BLI snowman]

12z ICON is still showing a decidedly more climo look.

[Guest administrator]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

For an event that's still a week out, I have amazingly high confidence we are about to see some significantly colder weather, complete with lowland snow chances. What is unfolding in the models is just so much like most other recent arctic blasts for me to think otherwise.

The GFS often picks up on arctic blast signals first, to be followed by other models coming on board later. Just like we are seeing now. The GFS also typically ridiculously overdoes the lowland cold and snow. It almost always calls for record or near-record temperatures in this sort of situation. If we are lucky, we just might see Olympia or Arlington drop into the single digits… and we probably won't be that lucky. No way is SEA or PDX going to see temperatures like that. Even BLI is almost certain to not see single digits on this one. Most of us won’t see temperatures colder than about 25˚F. And that is still impressively cold for early November.

Kind of sad to see that you drank the kool aid. Even Tim has left his perch of sanity.

Highs in the upper 30s are more likely than any of the nonsense modeled.

[Guest administrator]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

12z ICON is still showing a decidedly more climo look.

Nice

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

12z ICON is still showing a decidedly more climo look.

True, but it is the icon, I’d rather have the gfs and euro onboard. Also the 12z icon is better than the 00z icon

[Nov1985]

2 minutes ago, administrator said:

Kind of sad to see that you drank the kool aid. Even Tim has left his perch of sanity.

Highs in the upper 30s are more likely than any of the nonsense modeled.

The first snow maps of the year are always the easiest to get excited about. Then around 4 or 5 days out we remember what we learned the previous year. We spend the rest of the winter a bit wiser as we watch the cold air delay and delay until February.  We'll do it again next November because that's what we do. 

[Terreboner]

Hopefully November doesn't blow the load and there is nothing the rest of the Winter.  It can, and has happened before.

[Doinko]

 

[Omegaraptor]

16 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Hopefully November doesn't blow the load and there is nothing the rest of the Winter.  It can, and has happened before.

It was cold for two straight months after the initial cold wave in mid-April. I’m not worried.

Based on how the weather has worked this year I highly doubt this will be some “one hit wonder and then back to business as usual” event.

The first storm of the season was NW flow and we’ve seen more NW than SW flow to this point, too.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

Uh oh...is it time to put this thing on life support?? 850s are weak so far

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Uh oh...is it time to put this thing on life support?? 850s are weak so far

Trend over the last few runs has been to shift everything westward early next week which increases SW flow.  

[DareDuck]

About 2.5” of snow on the south side of Bend. Rain started around 3am and transitioned to snow around 5-6am. More precip in the first 9 hours of November than all of October. 

[FroYoBro]

The 12z GFS looks much more realistic with how much cold air pushes south compared to last nights run. 

[MWG]

Temps down to 39F  I'm very surprised the temps have gone down. Still raining! Bad that today I'm not in my office so no windows for me today! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, MWG said:

Temps down to 39F  I'm very surprised the temps have gone down. Still raining! Bad that today I'm not in my office so no windows for me today! 

Pretty sure you’re gonna have a sneaky good winter there.

[Omegaraptor]

Kinda like Dec 2021 in which the really cold stuff doesn’t make it past Wenatchee but we still get extended maritime polar air and the mountains get absolutely buried in the type of powder Colorado resorts boast about.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Kinda like Dec 2021 in which the really cold stuff doesn’t make it past Wenatchee

I would be just fine with a Dec 2021 repeat.

[MWG]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Pretty sure you’re gonna have a sneaky good winter there.

I hope so! It was a brutal Summer! then again it was for most of us.

[Sonny Summers]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

This is pretty nuts for an ensemble mean.

06z GEFS 850mb temp anoms.

Welcome back, Phil.

[High Desert Mathew]

Been snowing since about 6:30 this morning. Maybe an inch in the grassy areas but the roads are clear. 32.3 degrees. What a change in just two weeks. 

[gusky]

00z ECMWF ensemble was definitely still skeptical.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

Well. How convenient that the models are showing this for literally the week I move. On one hand, yay cold and snow! On the other, I have to drive 1000 miles that week.

I suggest you move back here in the spring and then back to AZ again next November.  I gotta keep the mojo going

[bainbridgekid]

Monday morning has a lot more convergence/moisture on the 12z which it thinks will be snow around Puget Sound but I’m skeptical temps would be cold enough for anything to stick.

 

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Monday morning has a lot more convergence/moisture on the 12z which it thinks will be snow around Puget Sound but I’m skeptical temps would be cold enough for anything to stick.

 

foothill and north end special? Probably to be expected with anything in November 

[ShawniganLake]

Gem gets kinda stormy early next week.  With the way that trough digs out over the ocean it seems quite possible we will see some cyclogenesis off the coast.  

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Gem gets kinda stormy early next week.  With the way that trough digs out over the ocean it seems quite possible we will see some cyclogenesis off the coast.  

GEM a little better with the 850s than last 2 runs

 

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

foothill and north end special? Probably to be expected with anything in November 

I feel like that's more of end of winter thing. 

I liked where the 00z Euro was going and I'm hoping it trends colder

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Looks like some typical model waffling on this morning’s runs. Got down to 42 this morning to start November off.