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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Kinda like Dec 2021 in which the really cold stuff doesn’t make it past Wenatchee

I would be just fine with a Dec 2021 repeat.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Pretty sure you’re gonna have a sneaky good winter there.

I hope so! It was a brutal Summer! then again it was for most of us.

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1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

Well. How convenient that the models are showing this for literally the week I move. On one hand, yay cold and snow! On the other, I have to drive 1000 miles that week.

I suggest you move back here in the spring and then back to AZ again next November.  I gotta keep the mojo going

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Monday morning has a lot more convergence/moisture on the 12z which it thinks will be snow around Puget Sound but I’m skeptical temps would be cold enough for anything to stick.

 

84358FAA-134C-461E-A6BA-3A1C2AAFC248.png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Monday morning has a lot more convergence/moisture on the 12z which it thinks will be snow around Puget Sound but I’m skeptical temps would be cold enough for anything to stick.

 

84358FAA-134C-461E-A6BA-3A1C2AAFC248.png

foothill and north end special? Probably to be expected with anything in November 

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4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Gem gets kinda stormy early next week.  With the way that trough digs out over the ocean it seems quite possible we will see some cyclogenesis off the coast.  

GEM a little better with the 850s than last 2 runs

 

trend-gdps-2022110112-f144.850t_anom.na.gif

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

foothill and north end special? Probably to be expected with anything in November 

I feel like that's more of end of winter thing. 

I liked where the 00z Euro was going and I'm hoping it trends colder

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Looks like some typical model waffling on this morning’s runs. Got down to 42 this morning to start November off. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Looks like some typical model waffling on this morning’s runs. Got down to 42 this morning to start November off. 

image.gif

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Model suite still looks good for at least somebody, esp at elevation. Andrew, y’all got a truck to go up to the mtns?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I had around 20 inches at my place. Was amazing. I’m at 600 feet and feeling slightly optimistic about next week. 

Consistent line of showers dropped 10” total over 3 straight nights in onshore southerly flow snow hahaha.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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18 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I feel like that's more of end of winter thing. 

I liked where the 00z Euro was going and I'm hoping it trends colder

The way the models look now, that pattern is going to be one that will struggle to push the continental air south with much efficiency.  North and higher elevations are your best bet.  Maybe things will shift for the better still. 

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4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The way the models look now, that pattern is going to be one that will struggle to push the continental air south with much efficiency.  North and higher elevations are your best bet.  Maybe things will shift for the better still. 

Yea definitely best to keep expectations in check…atleast for another few days as we get closer with the model runs. If set up was just a few weeks later it would be an absolute slam dunk though just harder to pull off so early in the season. Need more things to go right for it to work out. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

GEFS has Portlands coldest 850mb temps of the next 10 days occurring the next couple mornings. 
 

3EFF34D8-50C3-4874-9BE8-ED7F52E509A5.thumb.png.6892e9721dcd21c52369814bd08c78a4.png

Thanks TIM

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yea definitely best to keep expectations in check…atleast for another few days as we get closer with the model runs. If set up was just a few weeks later it would be an absolute slam dunk though just harder to pull off so early in the season. Need more things to go right for it to work out. 

Yep. Some people north of say Olympia will probably see some snow out of this.  Maybe even a little continental air makes it out of the Fraser gap next week.  Strong north wind with arctic air sweeping down through Puget Sound? Probably not. 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

GFS is outputting fringy a** temps but showing snowfall. Call me a skeptic. 

Won't stop the masses from panicking about snow because their phone shows a snowflake. 43/34 be dammed, it's gonna snow!

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 90.7 (some data missing)

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 13

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 6

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.9''

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13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Yep. Some people north of say Olympia will probably see some snow out of this.  Maybe even a little continental air makes it out of the Fraser gap next week.  Strong north wind with arctic air sweeping down through Puget Sound? Probably not. 

Probably a bit 2017-like. 

Maybe even 1973 if you wanna go old skool, but probably won't be that significant.

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Just got off a conference call with Judah C, Cliff M, and Joe Z, all are in agreement that there is nothing much here and we are in the throws of a GFS fever dream. It'll be nice to get some much needed rain and as it wont really get below freezing for more than six hours, I don't have to cover my tomatoes. Its a win-win-win!

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4 minutes ago, administrator said:

Just got off a conference call with Judah C, Cliff M, and Joe Z, all are in agreement that there is nothing much here and we are in the throws of a GFS fever dream. It'll be nice to get some much needed rain and as it wont really get below freezing for more than six hours, I don't have to cover my tomatoes. Its a win-win-win!

These posts got old like a year ago. 

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11 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I was thinking the same thing. This has an early November 2017 feel to it.

I remember a pretty decent Spokane snow in December 17 I think.  had just moved here and hadn't driven in snow in about 10 years prior at that point.

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7 minutes ago, administrator said:

Just got off a conference call with Judah C, Cliff M, and Joe Z, all are in agreement that there is nothing much here and we are in the throws of a GFS fever dream. It'll be nice to get some much needed rain and as it wont really get below freezing for more than six hours, I don't have to cover my tomatoes. Its a win-win-win!

And the Seahawks will not win another game this season and the Broncos will run the table and will be headed to the Super Bowl. It’s a dark day all around. 1991/92 here we come!!! Let’s Ride!! Denver Broncos Football GIF by Broncos

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Probably a bit 2017-like. 

Maybe even 1973 if you wanna go old skool, but probably won't be that significant.

I’d gladly take something like November 2017 again. It wasn’t much snow…but if something similar to that happens again it would be one of the more epic seasonal transitions. From 80-90 degrees and smoke to upper 30s and some snow just a couple weeks later. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

These posts got old like a year ago. 

He’s probably right, though. No lowland snow south of Mossman! Us northerners will be posting snow pix and you will be stuck in the sad lands with nothing more than cold rain yet again.

Cheer up. It could be worse. You could live in Eugene and not see sticking snow for the next four or five years.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Probably a bit 2017-like. 

Maybe even 1973 if you wanna go old skool, but probably won't be that significant.

73 was pretty legit here. 32F high with almost a foot of snow and lows in the mid 20s.  Even YYJ picked up a few inches at sea level.  

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And the Seahawks will not win another game this season and the Broncos will run the table and will be headed to the Super Bowl. It’s a dark day all around. 1991/92 here we come!!! Let’s Ride!! Denver Broncos Football GIF by Broncos

Split flow will dominate from now until May. 😁

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45 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Yep. Some people north of say Olympia will probably see some snow out of this.  Maybe even a little continental air makes it out of the Fraser gap next week.  Strong north wind with arctic air sweeping down through Puget Sound? Probably not. 

Slow bleeds of cold air out of the Fraser always work out best for me anyway, if you'll allow me a brief moment of greediness.

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Just now, North_County said:

Slow bleeds of cold air out of the Fraser always work out best for me anyway, if you'll allow me a brief moment of greediness.

As I observed a few days ago, the most important weather is always the weather that happens in your own backyard.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, North_County said:

Slow bleeds of cold air out of the Fraser always work out best for me anyway, if you'll allow me a brief moment of greediness.

Yea. Stalled arctic fronts with weak outflow are often the biggest snow makers here

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