November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Sonny Summers]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

This is pretty nuts for an ensemble mean.

06z GEFS 850mb temp anoms.

Welcome back, Phil.

[High Desert Mat?]

Been snowing since about 6:30 this morning. Maybe an inch in the grassy areas but the roads are clear. 32.3 degrees. What a change in just two weeks. 

[gusky]

00z ECMWF ensemble was definitely still skeptical.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

Well. How convenient that the models are showing this for literally the week I move. On one hand, yay cold and snow! On the other, I have to drive 1000 miles that week.

I suggest you move back here in the spring and then back to AZ again next November.  I gotta keep the mojo going

[bainbridgekid]

Monday morning has a lot more convergence/moisture on the 12z which it thinks will be snow around Puget Sound but I’m skeptical temps would be cold enough for anything to stick.

 

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Monday morning has a lot more convergence/moisture on the 12z which it thinks will be snow around Puget Sound but I’m skeptical temps would be cold enough for anything to stick.

 

foothill and north end special? Probably to be expected with anything in November 

[ShawniganLake]

Gem gets kinda stormy early next week.  With the way that trough digs out over the ocean it seems quite possible we will see some cyclogenesis off the coast.  

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Gem gets kinda stormy early next week.  With the way that trough digs out over the ocean it seems quite possible we will see some cyclogenesis off the coast.  

GEM a little better with the 850s than last 2 runs

 

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

foothill and north end special? Probably to be expected with anything in November 

I feel like that's more of end of winter thing. 

I liked where the 00z Euro was going and I'm hoping it trends colder

[TacomaWx]

Looks like some typical model waffling on this morning’s runs. Got down to 42 this morning to start November off. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Looks like some typical model waffling on this morning’s runs. Got down to 42 this morning to start November off. 

[TT-SEA]

Sunny here this morning... 

[RentonHill]

GEFS 850s at hr 150 continue to improve

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Model suite still looks good for at least somebody, esp at elevation. Andrew, y’all got a truck to go up to the mtns?

[SnowWillarrive]

35 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I would be just fine with a Dec 2021 repeat.

I had around 20 inches at my place. Was amazing. I’m at 600 feet and feeling slightly optimistic about next week. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gfs is coming to its senses. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I had around 20 inches at my place. Was amazing. I’m at 600 feet and feeling slightly optimistic about next week. 

Consistent line of showers dropped 10” total over 3 straight nights in onshore southerly flow snow hahaha.

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I feel like that's more of end of winter thing. 

I liked where the 00z Euro was going and I'm hoping it trends colder

The way the models look now, that pattern is going to be one that will struggle to push the continental air south with much efficiency.  North and higher elevations are your best bet.  Maybe things will shift for the better still. 

[Darrington Troll]

Almost believable for the Darrington area…not excited about those highs.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, administrator said:

Nice

Think MILD and RAIN! C'MON!

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The way the models look now, that pattern is going to be one that will struggle to push the continental air south with much efficiency.  North and higher elevations are your best bet.  Maybe things will shift for the better still. 

Yea definitely best to keep expectations in check…atleast for another few days as we get closer with the model runs. If set up was just a few weeks later it would be an absolute slam dunk though just harder to pull off so early in the season. Need more things to go right for it to work out. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

48 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I would be just fine with a Dec 2021 repeat.

Last December was great! I ended up with a foot of snow on the ground and lows in the single digits.

Not gonna happen in early November.

[Phishy Wx]

I'll take it for early November.  some sub freezing highs in there next week

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

GEFS has Portlands coldest 850mb temps of the next 10 days occurring the next couple mornings. 
 

[Sonny Summers]

13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Gfs is coming to its senses. 

I look forward to the 18z showing subpolar conditions throughout the region.

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

GEFS has Portlands coldest 850mb temps of the next 10 days occurring the next couple mornings. 
 

Thanks TIM

[Cloud]

GFS is outputting fringy a** temps but showing snowfall. Call me a skeptic. 

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yea definitely best to keep expectations in check…atleast for another few days as we get closer with the model runs. If set up was just a few weeks later it would be an absolute slam dunk though just harder to pull off so early in the season. Need more things to go right for it to work out. 

Yep. Some people north of say Olympia will probably see some snow out of this.  Maybe even a little continental air makes it out of the Fraser gap next week.  Strong north wind with arctic air sweeping down through Puget Sound? Probably not. 

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Thanks TIM

This is Tim’s burner account.  Realistic but unpopular weather commentary.  

[jakerepp]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

GFS is outputting fringy a** temps but showing snowfall. Call me a skeptic. 

Won't stop the masses from panicking about snow because their phone shows a snowflake. 43/34 be dammed, it's gonna snow!

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

GFS is outputting fringy a** temps but showing snowfall. Call me a skeptic. 

Skeptic.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

My 10-day forecast looks more sloppy than deep freeze. Hey, it’s only early November, I’ll take it!

[Kolk1604]

And we're off! 

Where's Rob?

[Sonny Summers]

The latest weekly 
SST departures are:
Niño 4 -1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -1.0ºC
Niño 3 -1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.8ºC

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Yep. Some people north of say Olympia will probably see some snow out of this.  Maybe even a little continental air makes it out of the Fraser gap next week.  Strong north wind with arctic air sweeping down through Puget Sound? Probably not. 

Probably a bit 2017-like. 

Maybe even 1973 if you wanna go old skool, but probably won't be that significant.

[Sonny Summers]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Probably a bit 2017-like. 

Maybe even 1973 if you wanna go old skool, but probably won't be that significant.

I was thinking the same thing. This has an early November 2017 feel to it.

[Guest administrator]

Just got off a conference call with Judah C, Cliff M, and Joe Z, all are in agreement that there is nothing much here and we are in the throws of a GFS fever dream. It'll be nice to get some much needed rain and as it wont really get below freezing for more than six hours, I don't have to cover my tomatoes. Its a win-win-win!

[FroYoBro]

4 minutes ago, administrator said:

Just got off a conference call with Judah C, Cliff M, and Joe Z, all are in agreement that there is nothing much here and we are in the throws of a GFS fever dream. It'll be nice to get some much needed rain and as it wont really get below freezing for more than six hours, I don't have to cover my tomatoes. Its a win-win-win!

These posts got old like a year ago. 

[Phishy Wx]

11 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I was thinking the same thing. This has an early November 2017 feel to it.

I remember a pretty decent Spokane snow in December 17 I think.  had just moved here and hadn't driven in snow in about 10 years prior at that point.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, administrator said:

Just got off a conference call with Judah C, Cliff M, and Joe Z, all are in agreement that there is nothing much here and we are in the throws of a GFS fever dream. It'll be nice to get some much needed rain and as it wont really get below freezing for more than six hours, I don't have to cover my tomatoes. Its a win-win-win!

And the Seahawks will not win another game this season and the Broncos will run the table and will be headed to the Super Bowl. It’s a dark day all around. 1991/92 here we come!!! Let’s Ride!! 

Edited November 1, 2022 by MossMan

[TacomaWx]

16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Probably a bit 2017-like. 

Maybe even 1973 if you wanna go old skool, but probably won't be that significant.

I’d gladly take something like November 2017 again. It wasn’t much snow…but if something similar to that happens again it would be one of the more epic seasonal transitions. From 80-90 degrees and smoke to upper 30s and some snow just a couple weeks later. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

These posts got old like a year ago. 

He’s probably right, though. No lowland snow south of Mossman! Us northerners will be posting snow pix and you will be stuck in the sad lands with nothing more than cold rain yet again.

Cheer up. It could be worse. You could live in Eugene and not see sticking snow for the next four or five years.

[ShawniganLake]

19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Probably a bit 2017-like. 

Maybe even 1973 if you wanna go old skool, but probably won't be that significant.

73 was pretty legit here. 32F high with almost a foot of snow and lows in the mid 20s.  Even YYJ picked up a few inches at sea level.  

[Sonny Summers]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And the Seahawks will not win another game this season and the Broncos will run the table and will be headed to the Super Bowl. It’s a dark day all around. 1991/92 here we come!!! Let’s Ride!! 

Split flow will dominate from now until May.

[Snownerd3000]

cansips updated today.  Looks good.

[North_County]

45 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Yep. Some people north of say Olympia will probably see some snow out of this.  Maybe even a little continental air makes it out of the Fraser gap next week.  Strong north wind with arctic air sweeping down through Puget Sound? Probably not. 

Slow bleeds of cold air out of the Fraser always work out best for me anyway, if you'll allow me a brief moment of greediness.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, North_County said:

Slow bleeds of cold air out of the Fraser always work out best for me anyway, if you'll allow me a brief moment of greediness.

As I observed a few days ago, the most important weather is always the weather that happens in your own backyard.

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, North_County said:

Slow bleeds of cold air out of the Fraser always work out best for me anyway, if you'll allow me a brief moment of greediness.

Yea. Stalled arctic fronts with weak outflow are often the biggest snow makers here

[Deweydog]

Hard to believe it’s already November!

[Sonny Summers]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hard to believe it’s already November!

Winter cancel