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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

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Totally dry here this morning... no rain overnight.    Looks like the next couple days are basically dry up here.   SE WA has been under that moisture band since yesterday and its still going strong.    Its been raining in Pullman for about 36 hours straight now.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. 

1DE46E8A-E61C-4D52-9D49-F5376F5E4C44.jpeg

You should move into that neighborhood... no more commute!

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19 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one.

Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn.

 

I'm hoping this Novemember cold verifies too. I also remember you saying earlier that you were feeling November here.

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. 

1DE46E8A-E61C-4D52-9D49-F5376F5E4C44.jpeg

Hopefully the new gig treats you well my man!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You should move into that neighborhood... no more commute!

For real, my commute just went from 40 minutes to an hour. 

 

7 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

New job or did your office move?

New job. A promotion of sorts. Will still be at the old office once a week. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Still raining a bunch but we're somewhere past .6

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2024-2025 Snowfall totals:

HIghest snow total (per event): 

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 

First Freeze: TBD

Last Sub freezing Day: 

Coldest low:

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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In other news I’m taking a wait and see approach in regards to next week. Could potentially see some flakes tomorrow morning. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I’m waiting for m’lady to come out of surgery. Y’all got QB for the morning GFS?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just now, Terreboner said:

Expecting a NowCast pretty soon.  Looks like this band is overperforming here considering NWS had us as a rain/snow mix at best.

If events regularly overperform then this winter will become even more memorable.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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37F here this morning. Looks like the next couple mornings could approach freezing so I might have to do a final collection of the remaining summer crops in the garden.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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For an event that's still a week out, I have amazingly high confidence we are about to see some significantly colder weather, complete with lowland snow chances. What is unfolding in the models is just so much like most other recent arctic blasts for me to think otherwise.

The GFS often picks up on arctic blast signals first, to be followed by other models coming on board later. Just like we are seeing now. The GFS also typically ridiculously overdoes the lowland cold and snow. It almost always calls for record or near-record temperatures in this sort of situation. If we are lucky, we just might see Olympia or Arlington drop into the single digits… and we probably won't be that lucky. No way is SEA or PDX going to see temperatures like that. Even BLI is almost certain to not see single digits on this one. Most of us won’t see temperatures colder than about 25˚F. And that is still impressively cold for early November.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

For an event that's still a week out, I have amazingly high confidence we are about to see some significantly colder weather, complete with lowland snow chances. What is unfolding in the models is just so much like most other recent arctic blasts for me to think otherwise.

The GFS often picks up on arctic blast signals first, to be followed by other models coming on board later. Just like we are seeing now. The GFS also typically ridiculously overdoes the lowland cold and snow. It almost always calls for record or near-record temperatures in this sort of situation. If we are lucky, we just might see Olympia or Arlington drop into the single digits… and we probably won't be that lucky. No way is SEA or PDX going to see temperatures like that. Even BLI is almost certain to not see single digits on this one. Most of us won’t see temperatures colder than about 25˚F. And that is still impressively cold for early November.

Kind of sad to see that you drank the kool aid. Even Tim has left his perch of sanity.

Highs in the upper 30s are more likely than any of the nonsense modeled.

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2 minutes ago, administrator said:

Kind of sad to see that you drank the kool aid. Even Tim has left his perch of sanity.

Highs in the upper 30s are more likely than any of the nonsense modeled.

The first snow maps of the year are always the easiest to get excited about. Then around 4 or 5 days out we remember what we learned the previous year. We spend the rest of the winter a bit wiser as we watch the cold air delay and delay until February.  We'll do it again next November because that's what we do. 🤪

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16 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Hopefully November doesn't blow the load and there is nothing the rest of the Winter.  It can, and has happened before.

It was cold for two straight months after the initial cold wave in mid-April. I’m not worried.

Based on how the weather has worked this year I highly doubt this will be some “one hit wonder and then back to business as usual” event.

The first storm of the season was NW flow and we’ve seen more NW than SW flow to this point, too.

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5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Uh oh...is it time to put this thing on life support?? 850s are weak so far

Trend over the last few runs has been to shift everything westward early next week which increases SW flow.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, MWG said:

Temps down to 39F  I'm very surprised the temps have gone down. Still raining! Bad that today I'm not in my office so no windows for me today! 

Pretty sure you’re gonna have a sneaky good winter there.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Kinda like Dec 2021 in which the really cold stuff doesn’t make it past Wenatchee

I would be just fine with a Dec 2021 repeat.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

Well. How convenient that the models are showing this for literally the week I move. On one hand, yay cold and snow! On the other, I have to drive 1000 miles that week.

I suggest you move back here in the spring and then back to AZ again next November.  I gotta keep the mojo going

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Monday morning has a lot more convergence/moisture on the 12z which it thinks will be snow around Puget Sound but I’m skeptical temps would be cold enough for anything to stick.

 

84358FAA-134C-461E-A6BA-3A1C2AAFC248.png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Monday morning has a lot more convergence/moisture on the 12z which it thinks will be snow around Puget Sound but I’m skeptical temps would be cold enough for anything to stick.

 

84358FAA-134C-461E-A6BA-3A1C2AAFC248.png

foothill and north end special? Probably to be expected with anything in November 

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