November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Iceresistance]

I'm sure that this Hashtag will age like milk!

However! The Climate Prediction Center's Monthly Outlook suggests above-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures for November for the PNW!

[kokaneekidz]

Let's work on this name a touch. Shall we. Snowmaggedon Snowvember....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Since the summer I’ve had a feeling.

[Doinko]

Well the model runs to start out November look good! 384hr snow map for fun

Euro

[kokaneekidz]

https://battaglia.ddns.net/twc/#

Classic Weather Channel, music included. 

[MossMan]

Happy November 1st everybody! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

[TacomaWx]

Pretty ridiculous the euro actually shows more snow than the gfs does for my house. I’ve definitely lost a bit of skepticism regarding the chances of something legit happening but lots of time left for things to change. 

[Deweydog]

Mortgage payment due today.

[Sonny Summers]

I love our new home. Let the model riding commence.

[Sonny Summers]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

The Immigrant Song, I don't smoke, I'm drinking water.

[kokaneekidz]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

Moscow Mules with 80s weather Channel music

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

I'm actually not listening to anything tonight....I'm so stoked.  Usually Pink Floyd.

[TacomaWx]

One day actually has a high of 34 degrees…3 sub 40 highs. We will see what the EPS has for us. 

[snow_wizard]

The EPS is way better vs the 12z.  Way stronger and further east with the crucial part of the block.

[Requiem]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

Listening to Gaga, Madonna, Fleetwood Mac. Eclectic combo, I know 

[snow_wizard]

Wow!

[Gradient Keeper]

Welcome to November

Will 6z continue the theme? Maybe. EPS has a much healthier block too. Steady as she goes. One model run at a time. Keep this going! C'MON!!!!

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 16 minutes

[kokaneekidz]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Wow!

E P I C

[Sonny Summers]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!

Monday should be fun

[TacomaWx]

Prepare for insane emotional “winter cancel” or “1985 redux” swings every 6-12 hours. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Wow!

[Sonny Summers]

I have new front brakes and tires. I'm ready to rock.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!

Looks like it’s about 3 miles too far west. 

[kokaneekidz]

Just now, Sonny Summers said:

I have new front brakes and tires. I'm ready to rock.

Chains required,  whips optional

[Sonny Summers]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

OG Tiger before he was assaulted by his Swedish wife

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS looks like modified arctic air spilling into the Columbia Basin Day 7 to 7.5... Confirm?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Listening to Gaga, Madonna, Fleetwood Mac. Eclectic combo, I know 

Great combo. I'm all about the retro synthwave music which takes a lot of inspiration from this. Would love to be in a proper snow-ready vehicle, driving down the road with neon lights in the snow all around.

[Gradient Keeper]

12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

Might have some water. Don't smoke. Been working off/on with several works in progress bass beats/instrumentals with one epic piano production, strings, and bass. Trying really hard to find some focus and purpose in life again.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

OG Tiger before he was assaulted by his Swedish wife

The guy really should've gone full Derek Jeter and stayed single for a long time.

[HuskyMaestro]

3 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I have new front brakes and tires. I'm ready to rock.

Me too, I installed new spark plugs, brakes, new wipers for rain/ice/snow, antifreeze. I'm so ready. Only thing missing is new tires but I usually just call in from work or school. Granted it's a Mustang so I'm gonna have quite a ride in snowy conditions regardless haha! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS is way better vs the 12z.  Way stronger and further east with the crucial part of the block.

That's a great sign. It wouldn't surprise me to see the next few EURO runs trend colder with the air making its way into the Columbia River Basin like what the GFS is showing.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Might have some water. Don't smoke. Been working off/on with several works in progress bass beats/instrumentals with one epic piano production, strings, and bass. Trying really hard to find some focus and purpose in life again.

Been working with chord progressions that have that suspended resolutions.

I wish Michael Snyder could reach an agreement to use the NFL on Fox theme for his intro with major regional events like this one being depicted.

[MossMan]

Don’t forget to dress appropriately next week! 

[Guest administrator]

18 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

Chemical Brothers, Fatboy Slim, Vitalic, and Justice.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z EPS looks like modified arctic air spilling into the Columbia Basin Day 7 to 7.5... Confirm?

It does.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

If I had a virtual bar, I would open it up right now for everybody here. Can't send my vodka through the interwebs tho.

[snow_wizard]

Another Nina with an exceptional November event was 1921.  That winter was absolutely fantastic overall.  The others are 1955 and 2010.  Both had top tier events later in the winter.

[Deweydog]

23 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

Been listening to the Growing Pains theme song on a loop for the better part of the last three hours. Premiered in the fall of 1985.

[HuskyMaestro]

22 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

I have two coding projects due for class later today while having the Xmas playlist go in the background, it's on Let It Snow right now.

But it's real hard to focus right now lol

[snow_wizard]

EPS shows a double surge of cold.  The second round is much improved over the 12z run.  Very exciting.

[TacomaWx]

@Rubus Leucodermis talked about this the other day and many others as well…sometimes the gfs isn’t accurate in terms of surface details and snow maps (definitely still way overdoing it likely) but it can catch onto pattern changes way before the other models do. Seems like there’s a distinct possibility it was right again but also just egregiously bad at surface details like temps/snow maps ect. Same thing happened in December 2021. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

@Rubus Leucodermis talked about this the other day and many others as well…sometimes the gfs isn’t accurate in terms of surface details and snow maps (definitely still way overdoing it likely) but it can catch onto pattern changes way before the other models do. Seems like there’s a distinct possibility it was right again but also just egregiously bad at surface details like temps/snow maps ect. Same thing happened in December 2021. 

I think the GFS doesn't recognize the Canadian Rockies or something. lol

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another Nina with an exceptional November event was 1921.  That winter was absolutely fantastic overall.  The others are 1955 and 2010.  Both had top tier events later in the winter.

2010 was fun. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

I think the GFS doesn't recognize the Canadian Rockies or something. lol

Oh yeah it has some serious issues…but there’s times like these where it catches onto the pattern in the extended range better for whatever reason. Not always but there’s been some noteable cases of this before. 

[Snownerd3000]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Don’t forget to dress appropriately next week! 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

2010 was fun. 

2010 blast was a rarity. I had back to back morning lows of 11 degrees. It was a true northern blast with no backdoor cold support at all. No Gorge wind. Notta.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I think the GFS doesn't recognize the Canadian Rockies or something. lol

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

2010 blast was a rarity. I had back to back morning lows of 11 degrees. It was a true northern blast with no backdoor cold support at all. No Gorge wind. Notta.

I remember following that. There was more snow then forecasted. It was dumping snow and windy, it was crazy 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2010/11/humility.html?m=0

[Skagit Weather]

In case anyone was wondering, here are the top 10 coldest highs for BLI, SEA, and PDX in the first half of November. Even if we squeak out a high below 40F we would be in relatively rarified air.

(Edit: For some reason BLI is missing high temp data for 1955/11/12 and 1955/11/13)