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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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Just now, Sonny Summers said:

Winter cancel😭😭😭😭

It’s over. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Still some lowland snow around on this run…but 850mb and 925mb temps are a little warmer. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Still some lowland snow around on this run…but 850mb and 925mb temps are a little warmer. 

Surface Temps are In the 30s for a few days with looks like in the 20s Thursday night. 

Blocked drifted above Canada, We'll see where she goes tonight 

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Would certainly be a very dynamic start to November if this verifies. Several days in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees (very cold for this time of year) with an inch or so of snow (euro shows 5” but there would certainly be melting) and 4 inches of rain. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I've seen worse

 

image.thumb.png.3c489c125e4638dc6f4c163ea4a7c2da.png

That will work. Ten days ago it was still in the 70s. Now we're discussing snow opportunities. If we can get the ski resorts open before Thanksgiving, then I'll call this month a success. Got to keep everything in proper perspective, right?

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SEA ended the month of Oct. on a decent note. Last 10 days were good... went from well above +5F departure to +3.8 for the month. Also with 2.51" of rain, well below normal, but still very decent for the timeframe. 

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36 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Pretty amazingly snowy for early November. Just more believably so than some recent Goofus runs. Not so sure about that 10.1 over Eugene.

It is phantom 34-35F snow over EUG from that low that has been trending further and further south

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_nw.png

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12 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

Lol I smoked and was all ready for the night shift just for my high a** to forget to go to this forum from the October one. 😂🤦🏼‍♂️

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The “snow” for Tacoma looks pretty sus also. No way it actually produces the 6 inches the Euro was showing. 

0BDB35B0-1EDF-4244-9F9C-63687C604541.jpeg

The only snow I saw that looked plausible was a little later in the run. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The only snow I saw that looked plausible was a little later in the run. 

It’s pumping out 1-2in for Kuchera. Totally plausible which means a mix of rain & snow post likely tbh. 

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Was the phantom snow an issue for the EC a few years ago? Feels like it's gotten worse across all the models.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Was the phantom snow an issue for the EC a few years ago? Feels like it's gotten worse across all the models.

Yea it had an issue last year I think 

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea it had an issue last year I think 

Weird, I guess I just didn't notice it before then.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

It's not phantom snow

Some of us are just parry poopers!

It shows the DP at 35F-36F that's gonna be some cold rain. Might get some snow above 1000' maybe.

If this had been even 1-2 weeks later it would've been epic...dang.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It’s pumping out 1-2in for Kuchera. Totally plausible which means a mix of rain & snow post likely tbh. 

Could also be a case of a heavy shower dragging the snow level down to the surface briefly. Given the airmass it seems like it could happen. Around hour 186-192 later in the run…surface temps and 850mb, 925mb temps look better which could equate to a better shot. Either way we gotta wait until this weekend to get really excited about anything. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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6 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Pretty amazingly snowy for early November. Just more believably so than some recent Goofus runs. Not so sure about that 10.1 over Eugene.

Terrain bleed...Temps never get below 36 in EUG while the precip falls. Similar issue at PDX though surface temps there look a little more marginal. The ECMWF only has a 11km resolution. GFS is even worse at 12km. 

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Could also be a case of a heavy shower dragging the snow level down to the surface briefly. Given the airmass it seems like it could happen. Around hour 186-192 later in the run…surface temps and 850mb, 925mb temps look better which could equate to a better shot. Either way we gotta wait until this weekend to get really excited about anything. 

Also took a look at the DPs…when the band of precip moves through the south sound at that time the DP is in the upper 20s with temps 34-35 degrees. That would be snow. The precip at hour 162 falls with a DP so that would likely be cold rain. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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It's too bad to see more overwater trajectory in recent runs with the trough. Keeps things a lot milder for everyone. Would be nice if it trended just 2-300 miles further east.

Still plenty of time for it to trend back that way so we shall see!

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Also took a look at the DPs…when the band of precip moves through the south sound at that time the DP is in the upper 20s with temps 34-35 degrees. That would be snow. The precip at hour 162 falls with a DP so that would likely be cold rain. 

As i mentioned with tim yesterday...i felt like euro had like half a dozen of these instances last winter for EPSL that ended up being zeroes....just constantly showing light snow accumulations that ended up being 35-38 degree rain (at 400 feet atleast)

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4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

As i mentioned with tim yesterday...i felt like euro had like half a dozen of these instances last winter for EPSL that ended up being zeroes....just constantly showing light snow accumulations that ended up being 35-38 degree rain (at 400 feet atleast)

The models had big issues with terrain bleed in my area last winter. This time, I see colors on the snow maps even well away from the mountains. That gives me hope I will see something.

If any white stuff falls IMBY it is going to be sloppy, slushy, and short-lived. Not buying any model run that claims otherwise.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

As i mentioned with tim yesterday...i felt like euro had like half a dozen of these instances last winter for EPSL that ended up being zeroes....just constantly showing light snow accumulations that ended up being 35-38 degree rain (at 400 feet atleast)

Yeah any snowfall before hour 180 all falls with above freezing DPs…which wouldn’t be snow below 500-1000’. The only timeframe that had temps that made sense for snow falling was early Tuesday morning. 

56F11581-7B73-43FB-8942-3C9EBEF107C5.jpeg

F68C6A6F-9B0C-41DB-B825-05A601AE8004.jpeg

B7AF0741-D637-4E11-AF10-FEBB14E41ADE.jpeg

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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36 minutes ago, Kayla said:

It's too bad to see more overwater trajectory in recent runs with the trough. Keeps things a lot milder for everyone. Would be nice if it trended just 2-300 miles further east.

Still plenty of time for it to trend back that way so we shall see!

That has been happening to me!

EDIT: Oh wait, I read it wrong! 😳

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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  • Longtimer

I’ll just be happy to see our first freeze. When and if that happens…

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’ll just be happy to see our first freeze. When and if that happens…

Ditto here. First things first and then my expectations will be raised.

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2022-2023 snowfall totals: 1.75 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 1 inch: Nov 1-2

Coldest low: 13F (11/29/2022)

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18 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

You're far away from any large bodies of water.

I know, but the storm system that could cause heavy rainfall for my area has been trending 30-50 miles east in the past several runs.

EDIT: Oh wait, I read it wrong! 😳

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’ll just be happy to see our first freeze. When and if that happens…

Until then my Banana trees continue to grow !!! I bought a single small plant years ago to accent a little pond.  Now their taking over my yard! 
Next year I need to thin the herd.  

353D8B6E-1829-4C58-8A57-E5A4F6297B76.jpeg

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  • Longtimer
17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I was living in PDX in 2008. That year, the first freeze and first snow happened on the same morning.

That's what happened here in December 2016... Almost unimaginable we could go that long without a freeze, but things turned out just fine. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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