November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

Why is America always last? Thank God we are going to start winning again. 

Make the GFS great again!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 8-14 Composite Analog

Quite a few cold/snowy years

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

[stuffradio]

12z GFS Day 8-14 Composite Analog

Quite a few cold/snowy years

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

December 14 2008! That's the day it started snowing up here.

[Gradient Keeper]

King Euro in 13 minutes

[catnip]

December 14 2008! That's the day it started snowing up here.

And snow it did!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF

Begins in.... 10 minutes

Hoping to see similar progression as previous runs with the Aleutian ridge and amplification. As well to see timing moved ahead.

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

[Heavy Snow]

 

12z ECMWF

 

Begins in.... 10 minutes

 

Hoping to see similar progression as previous runs with the Aleutian ridge and amplification. As well to see timing moved ahead.

 

 

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

 

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

 

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

 

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

LET'S GO KING EURO!

[Gradient Keeper]

I assume the 12z GFS ENS shows no improvement. Not yet anyhow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty significant ensemble improvement. Not great, but going in the right direction. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS ENS 850mb, the mean didn't improve, but more chilly members -5c to -8c PDX in the Dec 6-8th time frame. Seattle far more -7c to -10c.

[Gradient Keeper]

Pretty significant ensemble improvement. Not great, but going in the right direction. 

Yep

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF 500mb Day 3

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112612/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112612/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_4.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Through day 4 500mb progression mirroring previous runs. High pressure moving off Asia in exact same location. Good sign.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 - No changes noted from previous runs

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112612/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112612/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_6.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Next 2 frames are crucial in regards to Aleutian ridge

[Trainwreck]

Day 6 looks like it nudges the offshore high inland. Unlike previous runs. Could it be trending towards gfs?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112612/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_8.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 looks like it nudges the offshore high inland. Unlike previous runs. Could it be trending towards gfs?

I see the exact same thing. Not sure I like that either. We'll see..

[ShawniganLake]

Canadian ensemble looks good in the 11-15 day range 

 

[HighlandExperience]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112612/192/500h_anom.na.png

[chopper 918]

Canadian is good at picking up changes in the pattern. Good to stick with it.

Nice SE ridge too.

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112612/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112612/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_9.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We love that GFS don't we!

[Brennan]

DJ DROPPING I really enjoy your analysis. It’s awesome that you post all of the graphics from each model so those that aren’t as plugged in can follow along and be apart of the fun!

 

P.S. 

 

It seems that Phil has disappeared now that things have gotten a bit more exciting over here in the PNW... Come back Phil, come back! 

 

Christmas music playing. Lights up in the house. Fireplace going. Getting our tree Monday. The timing is all playing out perfectly 

[Gradient Keeper]

This run might be digging the arctic air too far off BC Coast... Need the block further east... hmmm

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We're losing the EURO!

[Gradient Keeper]

DJ DROPPING I really enjoy your analysis. It’s awesome that you post all of the graphics from each model so those that aren’t as plugged in can follow along and be apart of the fun!

 

P.S. 

 

It seems that Phil has disappeared now that things have gotten a bit more exciting over here in the PNW... Come back Phil, come back! 

 

Christmas music playing. Lights up in the house. Fireplace going. Getting our tree Monday. The timing is all playing out perfectly 

Thanks. I enjoy doing so, and it is fun, or well can be when we actually score an event.

[Timmy Supercell]

NWS Medford sort of messed up on their winter weather advisory down here. They adjusted it to start at 5pm today. Not a single bit of precip around and it's just windy.

[Gradient Keeper]

Block is at 160 W, sweet spot...

[chopper 918]

This run might be digging the arctic air too far off BC Coast... Need the block further east... hmmm

Things almost always move East the closer we get to the event.  It will be ok.

[ShawniganLake]

Block is at 160 W, sweet spot...

The interior of BC is absolutely frigid by day 10.  Still lots of potential. 

[Brennan]

Things almost always move East the closer we get to the event.  It will be ok.

It has actually changed a bit in the last 7-8 years. These events don't tend to trend east as much as they did back in the early to mid 2000's when it was almost always the case. The GFS is too far east, the EURO right now is too far west, and the GEM is perfect. The fact that we are 8+ days out and all of the forecast models are reaching fairly similar conclusions for that far out is encouraging. Obviously we want better agreement moving forward, but this is pretty normal for any event this far out. 

[snow_wizard]

This run might be digging the arctic air too far off BC Coast... Need the block further east... hmmm

 

I've seen this before.  One too far east (GFS) and one too far west (ECMWF).  Actually a good sign.  The GEM is just right.  Kind of reminds me of Goldilocks and Three Bears.

[snow_wizard]

The interior of BC is absolutely frigid by day 10.  Still lots of potential. 

 

Tons...The Arctic front (outflow) is basically to Vancouver at day 10.

[Gradient Keeper]

I see the culprit. Compared to previous runs the ridge builds further west over the Rockies instead of over the plains/midwest, and the core of the block is a bit further south. However, it is bitterly cold to the north with a huge reservoir of arctic air aimed right into BC.

[ShawniganLake]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112612/ecmwf_T850_nwus_11.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks good to me. Bitter air mass is further west in BC even west of the Canadian Rockies.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112612/ecmwf_T850_nwus_11.png

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112612/ecmwf_T850_nwus_11.png

We just posted the same thing as the exact same time. lol

[Timmy]

Looks good to me. Bitter air mass is further west in BC even west of the Canadian Rockies.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112612/ecmwf_T850_nwus_11.png

Constantly at day 10 it seems...