November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[crf450ish]

[Deweydog]

The models are in false start mode until they're not.

[MossMan]

The models are in false start mode until they're not.

10 day penalty, repeat 1st down.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temp down to 39 now with heavy rain. To bad the airmass isn't just a touch cooler. 

 

37 now!

[TT-SEA]

Very strange surface pattern today.   SEA radar still looks almost exactly as it did when I first checked it this morning.   Rain band has bent all the way down through western OR but not up here.

 

Sitting at .03 for the day and at least 90% of the day was dry with some sun breaks this afternoon.   

[MossMan]

Very strange surface pattern today. SEA radar still looks almost exactly as it did when I first checked it this morning. Rain band has bent all the way down through western OR but not up here.

 

Sitting at .03 for the day and at least 90% of the day was dry with some sun breaks this afternoon.

And it's another insanely wet day up here!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very strange surface pattern today.   SEA radar still looks almost exactly as it did when I first checked it this morning.   Rain band has bent all the way down through western OR but not up here.

 

Sitting at .03 for the day and at least 90% of the day was dry with some sun breaks this afternoon.   

 

I have 0.40" all in the past two hours. 

[Phil]

That goes without saying so be nice to us!

I'll do my best to telepathically push that Arctic air mass over you guys.

[Deweydog]

10 day penalty, repeat 1st down.

Half the distance to the goal.

[MossMan]

Half the distance to the goal.

Please reset the game clock to early fall.

[BLI snowman]

Cold front!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS

Begins in.... 12 minutes

 

No real changes as to what we're looking for on this run. We want strong amplification of Aleutian ridge beginning Day 6-7 with kona/anchor low for H/L Rex block day 7-9. We definitely want to see timing moved ahead too. We do not want to see the block reorganizing and timing delayed. We don't want to see the ridge shoved too close to the Coast, nor see the arctic trough dig southwest off the central BC Coast. I'm hoping we begin to see the 500mb pattern setting up around Day 5-6 and arctic air sliding south into southern BC before day 9. I would be thrilled if we saw things sped up that much. I sure hope I can keep awake for the 00z runs tonight and as well to be here with you all for them. Think SNOW!!!! Keep the dream alive!

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=471

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6

Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

[Weather101]

[Jesse]

Cold front!

A rare event these days!

[Timmy]

Cold front!

I'm surprised it didn't get pushed back another 10 days!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tonight's model runs will be telling....

[Deweydog]

F*cking GFS is running.

 

No one ever listens to me.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

November 2016 rain total so far 6.13

[bainbridgekid]

39 degree rain as we parked for the Silvertips game in Everett.

 

First rain I've seen in the 30's in at least 6 months.

[Deweydog]

39 degree rain as we parked for the Silvertips game in Everett.

 

First rain I've seen in the 30's in at least 6 months.

Silvertips?

 

Booooooooo!

[TT-SEA]

39 degree rain as we parked for the Silvertips game in Everett.

 

First rain I've seen in the 30's in at least 6 months.

 

 

I am wondering now if it might snow here tonight once this band finally makes it out here.   

[Gradient Keeper]

0z GFS

HR 60.... hmmm, offshore ridge and GOA ridge trying to merge? If so, that would be a new development.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_11.png

[TT-SEA]

That system dropping in from the NW tomorrow afternoon is hauling a*s.   I can't remember seeing a system move so fast.  

 

Here is 10 a.m.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_3.png

 

And then 4 p.m.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_4.png

 

 

And 10 p.m.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_5.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Yep, they merged. Hmmmm

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_13.png

[MossMan]

Yep, they merged. Hmmmm

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_13.png

Is that bad?

[Gradient Keeper]

Is that bad?

Nah. I was hoping it would lead to less amplitude of the now building offshore ridge.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 84 just moving off Asia now is what will become our Aleutian ridge

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_15.png

[Deweydog]

That system dropping in from the NW tomorrow afternoon is hauling a*s. I can't remember seeing a system move so fast.

 

Here is 10 a.m.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_3.png

 

And then 4 p.m.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_4.png

 

 

And 10 p.m.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_5.png

Does this mean the Arctic outbreak will be here faster???

[TT-SEA]

Does this mean the Arctic outbreak will be here faster???

 

 

It means the pattern change has arrived.

[Gradient Keeper]

It means the pattern change has arrived.

Hopefully it demolishes that stubborn, pesky ridge

[Gradient Keeper]

Compared to previous 3 runs the offshore ridge at HR 102 is definitely a tad less amplified and slightly suppressed.

[Gradient Keeper]

At HR 114 ridge nearing western Aleutians a bit more amplified than previous runs.

[snow_wizard]

Sexton Summit was 45 with rain earlier, 33 and snow now

The cold front has definitely moved through. I think we have finally achieved the next cooling step we've been waiting for.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 162

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112700/162/500h_anom.na.png

[Phil]

The anticyclonic wavebreak is going to be even stronger this run.

 

Here we go..

[Gradient Keeper]

Cold air moving into Alaska 12 hours sooner this run

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dumping snow up on Mt. Hood right now!

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 174

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112700/174/500h_anom.na.png

[Trainwreck]

The anticyclonic wavebreak is going to be even stronger this run.

 

Here we go..

What does that mean Phil?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hope our friend up in Juneau can survive all the cold air coming his way.