November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

Constantly at day 10 it seems...

Tonight it'll be at day 9

[stuffradio]

The 12Z NCEP control on December 10 to 11 is insane. Almost 500 thickness and temps below -15C for Vancouver BC. Precipitation too.

[snow_wizard]

Constantly at day 10 it seems...

 

Typical timing adjustments with things like this.  If it happens I'm guessing day 9 or so.

[Gradient Keeper]

The 12Z NCEP control on December 10 to 11 is insane. Almost 500 thickness and temps below -15C for Vancouver BC. Precipitation too.

That works for me.

[stuffradio]

That works for me.

And those are surface temps, not 850 temps.

[snow_wizard]

A number of really cold ensemble members on the 12z GFS. The control model is quite insane alright. Nearly drops to -20 for Seattle.

[Farmboy]

What was that someone said several pages back about how when timing gets pushed back, it could be indicitive of colder air incoming than what was previously shown..?

[Gradient Keeper]

18z  in 2 hours 10 minutes!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

And those are surface temps, not 850 temps.

5 degrees sounds glorious

[Gradient Keeper]

[ Model Countdown ]

Next up....

*18z GFS in 2 hours 7 minutes

00z GFS in 8 hours 7 minutes

00z GEM in 9 hours 7 minutes

00z ECMWF in 10 hours 24 minutes

[stuffradio]

5 degrees sounds glorious

Can you guess the last time I had temps like that? It starts with 200 and ends with 8.

[snow_wizard]

Number one analog today at day 11 is 1964. Another huge cold snap.

[Gradient Keeper]

Can you guess the last time I had temps like that? It starts with 200 and ends with 8.

Yes, I'm ready to order. I'll take a combo package of 2008 and 1950. To go. Yes, I want napkins, and throw in some gloves and a snow shovel. Thanks.

[stuffradio]

Yes, I'm ready to order. I'll take a combo package of 2008 and 1950. To go. Yes, I want napkins, and throw in some gloves and a snow shovel. Thanks.

That will be $35/month. If you pay an extra $99 for insurance I will throw in an extra snow storm.

[van city]

Yes, I'm ready to order. I'll take a combo package of 2008 and 1950. To go. Yes, I want napkins, and throw in some gloves and a snow shovel. Thanks.

LOL... you are funny, it's a pleasure reading your posts.

[Gradient Keeper]

That will be $35/month. If you pay an extra $99 for insurance I will throw in an extra snow storm.

That would be cool. If we could control the weather, and at times we could pay to have extreme weather events like snow storms/bitter cold.... We'd have snow in July if I had it my way.

[van city]

Where's Tim?

[Gradient Keeper]

LOL... you are funny, it's a pleasure reading your posts.

Thanks. Lol I do what I can, when I can.

[Gradient Keeper]

Where's Tim?

Outside playing with Moss. Even making a Moss figurine/action hero that looks like Jim.

[van city]

Thanks. Lol I do what I can, when I can.

Much appreciated.

[Trainwreck]

Day 10. Nothing is getting closer. I've been hearing the same exact thing for almost a week now. Typical winter models.

[Gradient Keeper]

We can track the dome of high pressure(that becomes our Aleutian Ridge) in real-time I believe it's over eastern Mongolia. Will have to look at a map.....

[Bryant]

What was that someone said several pages back about how when timing gets pushed back, it could be indicitive of colder air incoming than what was previously shown..?

That was me. When we first started to get a tease of a pattern change, there was no cold air to work with on this side of the globe. It essentially would have been a waste of a beautiful upper level pattern. I just mentioned that a delay at the time wouldn't be a bad thing because it could allow time for the bitter air to shift around a bit

[snow_wizard]

Day 10. Nothing is getting closer. I've been hearing the same exact thing for almost a week now. Typical winter models.

The really good stuff has only been in sight for a few days. Before we were talking about just going a little below normal which will happen over the next few days.

[snow_wizard]

Outside playing with Moss. Even making a Moss figurine/action hero that looks like Jim.

I should feel honored!

[stuffradio]

FWIW, the CPC update from yesterday for the experimental 3-4 week period gives the PNW a chance at a white Christmas with a close to 50% chance of below normal temps!

[snow_wizard]

FWIW, the CPC update from yesterday for the experimental 3-4 week period gives the PNW a chance at a white Christmas with a close to 50% chance of below normal temps!

I never knew they had that product. Interesting!

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 12z EURO is progressing nicely. At Day 10 the Arctic Front is right at the Canada-US border. Notice the true Arctic air basically engulfing all of British Columbia. The Arctic air is hugging the coastline as well. None of it is trending east. The over water trajectory of the L will be good to increase moisture chances. Everything is coming together, we are well on our way to the Promised Land.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112612/240/850t.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112612/240/850tw.conus.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112612/240/sfcmslp.na.png

[Deweydog]

Kinda nice out.

[Trainwreck]

I just asked Mark to chime in and give his thoughts. We all know we want to hear his over anyone's on here lol.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10. Nothing is getting closer. I've been hearing the same exact thing for almost a week now. Typical winter models.

Yeah. A few things I liked and disliked about today's 12z ECMWF run.

 

- Liked

Extremely amplified block

Much colder into southwestern BC rather than confined to along/east of Canadian Rockies

Strong cross polar flow

 

- Disliked

Shortwave digs south off Alaska sooner

Timing slowed down

Arctic air/trough digs off BC too soon. That delays the cold airs push southward and often cuts it off right at the Canadian border.

Offshore ridge before day 8 a tad less suppressed

 

It's possible though with the block holding where it is that the arctic air would continue to spill southward. We never want to see models slow down or move things back as that has always led to a complete model collapse. This could just be one "hiccup" so to speak. The GEM however did not delay things instead timing moved ahead. Ensembles as well. We sure do not want to see 00z runs tonight trend that way though.

[snow_wizard]

Through day 9 the ECMWF ensemble is faster and further east with the trough than the operational. The control is about the same speed as the operational, but further east.

[Gradient Keeper]

Through day 9 the ECMWF ensemble is faster and further east with the trough than the operational. The control is about the same speed as the operational, but further east.

Sounds promising. Is it digging southward ???

[stuffradio]

It's crazy, I probably have between 1.5 to 2 inches of rain now today.

[ShawniganLake]

I know we have all been waiting for an update from the Japanese.  Looks good at day 9, similar to the Canadian.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

Sounds promising. Is it digging southward ???

It's up to day 11 now and it looks good on both.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EPS 500mb anomaly digs the arctic trough right down the BC coast not way offshore. Good sign. I can't tell how far south or other finer details. Yukon/BC look bitterly cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's up to day 11 now and it looks good on both.

Arctic front through SEA/PDX ????

[Kayla]

Arctic front through SEA/PDX ????

 

12z EPS ensemble and control run show that the arctic front stalls and doesn't push into the lower 48. All the real cold stuff stays up in the territories.

[HighlandExperience]

12z EPS ensemble and control run show that the arctic front stalls and doesn't push into the lower 48.

 

Stalls right over Western WA.