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November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Gradient Keeper

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So IDK how many times I have mentioned it, but those composite analog maps are completely pointless and do not mean anything. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I feel like we could see the upcoming "cold period" completely fall apart on future runs. That broad central US ridge doesn't want to budge. Messed up the weather this whole week too. Stalled fronts and endless SW flow.

 

I feel like we could see the upcoming "cold period" completely fall apart on future runs. That broad central US ridge doesn't want to budge. Messed up the weather this whole week too. Stalled fronts and endless SW flow.

 

I agree. Lets wait until January

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Minor details and still about 10 days out. Lots of model agreement that something good could happen. A good chance it will. We go through this every time, and more often than not we end up getting some very enjoyable snow and cold. Weenies need to take their Prozac or Pot cookies and chill out! Going to be fun watching this evolve!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I agree. Lets wait until January

Is that Cascade snow even still on tap? It feels like everything has managed to trend warm lately. Today has been an unexpected scorcher. MOS GFS was entertaining highs in the 40s for today as recently as yesterday afternoon.

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Is that Cascade snow even still on tap? It feels like everything has managed to trend warm lately. Today has been an unexpected scorcher. MOS GFS was entertaining highs in the 40s for today as recently as yesterday afternoon.

We are getting plenty up here...you live too far south.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The WRF continues to insist on significant cooling for the coming week.  Now indicating a widespread hard frost Thursday night.  Mostly highs in the 40s lows in the 30s all week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We should switch places! :)

No. If anything I want to go north and east! Winthrop/twist/Carlton area...someday! Northern Snohomish Co will do for now however! Don't know what I would do without my pscz during winter events!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I feel like we could see the upcoming "cold period" completely fall apart on future runs. That broad central US ridge doesn't want to budge. Messed up the weather this whole week too. Stalled fronts and endless SW flow.

Patterns change. Seems clear there is at least going to be a more meridional component coming soon, which seems appropriate given how wet things have been.

 

I think you're in a bit of a funk. The fact the models have trended warmer of late is symptomatic of the current pattern tendencies, don't read into it. It's the same folly as seeing things consistently trend colder in the short range and thinking it has some profound meaning.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Patterns change. Seems clear there is at least going to be a more meridional component coming soon, which seems appropriate given how wet things have been.

 

I think you're in a bit of a funk. The fact the models have trended warmer of late is symptomatic of the current pattern tendencies, don't read into it. It's the same folly as seeing things consistently trend colder in the short range and thinking it has some profound meaning.

Good points. I am indeed very tired of thinking we're finally done torching only to have us blow away another record warm month. A lasting pattern change would be very welcome. That is posoble even in our gradually warming climate. :)

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No. If anything I want to go north and east! Winthrop/twist/Carlton area...someday! Northern Snohomish Co will do for now however! Don't know what I would do without my pscz during winter events!

Sultry summer evenings are harder to come by over there...

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I dunno, call me crazy, but I tend to think models may trend colder moving into the first week of December we'll have a tanking EPO, PNA, tropical forcing eastern IO, bitter cold finally moving to our side of the hemisphere. I'll go out on that limb. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. It's not like a possible cold spell falling apart would be a shock to any of us.

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Good points. I am indeed very tired of thinking we're finally done torching only to have us blow away another record warm month. A lasting pattern change would be very welcome. That is posoble even in our gradually warming climate. :)

The inevitable run of highs in the teens in January will reflect a pattern change.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I dunno, call me crazy, but I tend to think models may trend colder moving into the first week of December we'll have a tanking EPO, PNA, tropical forcing eastern IO, bitter cold finally moving to our side of the hemisphere. I'll go out on that limb. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. It's not like a possible cold spell falling apart would be a shock to any of us.

You're crazy. ;)

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GFS ALERT?!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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