November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Trainwreck]

Uh. By the looks of it, the gfs may be back. Out to hour 234 and we look to be in business again. Kona low, amplified ridge, cold air to the north. 12 z may have been a flop.

[Jesse]

Uh. By the looks of it, the gfs may be back. Out to hour 234 and we look to be in business again. Kona low, amplified ridge, cold air to the north. 12 z may have been a flop.

#drunkuncle

[bainbridgekid]

Looking good.

 

Stronger Kona Low, healthier block, stronger Aleutian Low, colder in BC.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good LORD

[IbrChris]

Figured the longer-range was "interesting" enough to dust off my homemade teleconnection index.

 

Definite signs of an AK ridge/PNW trough in the longer range. Still a lot of disagreement on how amplified the pattern gets with ensembles generally weaker than operationals for the 12z runs. GFS ensemble the least suggestive of arctic air moving southward through BC and into the interior west while there's better agreement between the Euro ensemble and CMC ensemble. Generally we start to consider an arctic blast once there's good agreement for -2 or lower, with a significant blast possible at around -3. Still a good amount of time for things to change.

 

Index is a comparison between modeled 500 mb height at Anchorage and Salem compared to climatology with the results normalized. If the 500 mb heights are the same as climatology the index is 0.0.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

#ReddingtoEugeneSnowStorm

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_47.png

[The Swamp]

I love the looks of the Kona low.

[Deweydog]

Prudent thing to do at this point would be to not run the GFS for the next 12 days.

 

Can't trend warmer if they don't turn it on.

[ShawniganLake]

GFS ALERT?!

It's pointless. Our climate is so far gone it has zero chance of verifying.

[Deweydog]

Also, the 18z just stabbed January in the heart and violated its lifeless corpse.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Incoming!!!!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_51.png

[snow_wizard]

Pretty cold run.

 

Interesting the 12z control model also looked like that.

[Brennan]

It's pointless. Our climate is so far gone it has zero chance of verifying.

This type of sarcasm works for about two members on this board. Otherwise it's just annoying and too many people are using it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well this run starts snow at my location around hour 228. So next Monday night...

[Gradient Keeper]

Member that time 18z showed multiple blasts and snow, and it wasn't an outlier? I member..... Don't member rather. Nice to see the progression sped up well before day 10 nonetheless.

[Jesse]

It's pointless. Our climate is so far gone it has zero chance of verifying.

I hope you don't think that is what I'm saying.

[Timmy Supercell]

It's pointless. Our climate is so far gone it has zero chance of verifying.

 

Things must have changed a lot in the last 3 years lol. So 10-25-50 year type events suddenly won't happen anymore? 

[Jesse]

Prudent thing to do at this point would be to not run the GFS for the next 12 days.

 

Can't trend warmer if they don't turn it on.

I'm all for it!

[Deweydog]

Well this run starts snow at my location around hour 228. So next Monday night...

We'll be there. Should we bring anything?

[bainbridgekid]

We'll be there. Should we bring anything?

Chains. You won't be able to get there otherwise.

[snow_wizard]

Member that time 18z showed multiple blasts and snow, and it wasn't an outlier? I member..... Don't member rather. Nice to see the progression sped up well before day 10 nonetheless.

 

If it happens it will probably be on a sped up time frame.  This run was bloody cold.  Thickness dropped to about 507 for Seattle.  The analogs should be crazy on this one.

[stuffradio]

Holy macaroni. 499 thickness in Abbotsford on the drunk uncle! I've never seen it get that cold for around here..

[snow_wizard]

Models were showing a frost potential tonight just a few days ago.

 

Looks pretty obvious things are going to be chillier this coming week.

[Deweydog]

Holy macaroni. 499 thickness in Abbotsford on the drunk uncle! I've never seen it get that cold for around here..

Makes sense considering Abbotsford is no longer known for its Heat.

[stuffradio]

This type of sarcasm works for about two members on this board. Otherwise it's just annoying and too many people are using it.

No, it's annoying when any member does it.

[Jesse]

Looks pretty obvious things are going to be chillier this coming week.

This week was looking that way too. Dangling carrots get annoying.

[Deweydog]

If it happens it will probably be on a sped up time frame. This run was bloody cold. Thickness dropped to about 507 for Seattle. The analogs should be crazy on this one.

Why would it speed up?

[Gradient Keeper]

18z Composite Analogs

This is by far the best we've seen yet. Also, for the first time the 6-10 Day improved dramatically. Yes, the correlation score needs work. However, the 8-14 Day is incredibly incredible.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs610.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gif

[catnip]

18z ensembles look decent!

[Bryant]

No, it's annoying when any member does it.

Been a lot of negative Nancy's around here lately.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Major ensemble improvement. 

[Trainwreck]

Composite analogs are meaningless. They change daily along with their meanings. I believe they're worse than the cfs.

[bainbridgekid]

Major ensemble improvement. 

Indeed.

 

The entire long range is cool to cold.

 

[Brennan]

Makes sense considering Abbotsford is no longer known for its Heat.

This kind of sarcasm to me is hilarious... always has been. My wife catches me cracking up and asks what i'm laughing at and she doesn't get it..

[Prairiedog]

How brutal.... Happens a lot.... It's only one run though, and dozen or so to go before day 10

A wall probably has been built there to keep the arctic air from coming into our country. 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Ensembles
Portland, Seattle

Vancouver, British Columbia

Prince George, British Columbia

 

Shocking. Yes, the operational was an outlier, however18z 850mb Ensembles probably the best yet for the GFS that is.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Prince_George_Kanada_ens.png

[Trainwreck]

This kind of sarcasm to me is hilarious... always has been. My wife catches me cracking up and asks what i'm laughing at and she doesn't get it..

Makes me laugh too

[Trainwreck]

Will someone put the link for the ensembles here please. I'm still using nomads, Jim littles, and they look far different. Thanks

[Bryant]

Will someone put the link for the ensembles here please. I'm still using nomads, Jim littles, and they look far different. Thanks

Portland: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Seattle: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Vancouver, Ca: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

Or hop over to the model section at http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ and check out the GEFS,GEPS, or EPS

[Gradient Keeper]

Will someone put the link for the ensembles here please. I'm still using nomads, Jim littles, and they look far different. Thanks

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Vancouver, BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png