November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Yeah, 2007 sucked balls. So did 1998.

I lucked out in 1998 with nearly a foot of unpredicted snow going into the week of cold. I remember being super excited to try out my first brand new 4wd truck in the snow...was memorable that way!!

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, 2007 sucked balls.  So did 1998.

 

The thing is...those aren't analogs to the coming pattern according to the CPC site.

[chopper 918]

The thing is...those aren't analogs to the coming pattern according to the CPC site.

Thank God!

[Timmy]

I lucked out in 1998 with nearly a foot of unpredicted snow going into the week of cold. I remember being super excited to try out my first brand new 4wd truck in the snow...was memorable that way!!

I remember 1998 getting seemingly the most snow of my childhood

Until 2004

[stuffradio]

Yeah, 2007 sucked balls. So did 1998.

I got 2+ feet of snow in December 2007. So horrible.

[snow_wizard]

I got 2+ feet of snow in December 2007. So horrible.

 

Places in Whatcom County northward had a great winter 2007-08.  The pattern wasn't quite amplified enough for areas south of Bellingham to do well though.

[HighlandExperience]

Places in Whatcom County northward had a great winter 2007-08.  The pattern wasn't quite amplified enough for areas south of Bellingham to do well though.

 

SnowWiz correct me if I am wrong. But I remember quite a bit of cold rain that winter for the lowlands south of Whatcom. Just felt like we were on the cusp of something great. 

[Farmboy]

Here is an interesting graphic I just thought I'd share showing the freezing level.  You can see the dramatic drop off in the western Pacific....https://www.ventusky.com/?p=45.6;45.7;3&l=freezing&t=20161126/03&m=gfs

[ShawniganLake]

I am on the edge of my seat in anticipation for the 0z's

 

Looking like it is going to get very wet here tonight.

[van city]

I am on the edge of my seat in anticipation for the 0z's

Looking like it is going to get very wet here tonight.

Don't fall.

[Gradient Keeper]

A bit late to the party....... Hoping for a good 0z run and see timing moved ahead.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here is an interesting graphic I just thought I'd share showing the freezing level.  You can see the dramatic drop off in the western Pacific....https://www.ventusky.com/?p=45.6;45.7;3&l=freezing&t=20161126/03&m=gfs

 

That is cool.

[van city]

A bit late to the party....... Hoping for a good 0z run and see timing moved ahead.

Rob is back. Play by play please.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 - 500mb

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112600/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_21.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112600/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_21.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Here is an interesting graphic I just thought I'd share showing the freezing level.  You can see the dramatic drop off in the western Pacific....https://www.ventusky.com/?p=45.6;45.7;3&l=freezing&t=20161126/03&m=gfs

Awesome site. Thanks! I bookmarked it

[Timmy]

The 00z sucks so far. So it will probably be really good at the end!

[luvssnow_spokane]

[Deweydog]

Biggest concern I have moving forward is how exactly we are going to differentiate warning shots from main events and aftershocks.

[Front Ranger]

Everything is further west on 0z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Everything is further west on 0z.

 

Early on looks more similar to the GEM and EURO. Weren't people complaining the 18z was a bit to far east?

[Trainwreck]

Everything is further west on 0z.

At least it's not all farther east!!!!!!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Watch it pump up a huge ridge just inland with raging SW flow into the PNW.  

[Front Ranger]

Blocking ridge is also much weaker. This run is not looking very good.

 

In the Euro we trust!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Watch it pump up a huge ridge just inland with raging SW flow into the PNW.

Well, that would be the typical outcome. And honestly not a surprise at all. These things moderate or completely fail about 90% of the time. At least we have a lot of winter ahead.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 - 500mb. I don't like the look of this Aleutian ridge. Weaker, less amplitude, and further south than previous runs. We'll have to see how days 8-10 end up.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112600/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_29.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112600/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_29.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yikes not good

[Gradient Keeper]

Yuck

[chopper 918]

It's the GFS...when will we learn that the model to be trusted is the EURO?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter cancel?

[Phil]

Polar vortex is dominating on the 00z GFS. That thing is vertically stacked and fully coupled through the stratopause by 216hrs.

[Deweydog]

I'm having her take back the long johns.

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks nothing like the GEM/ECMWF, Ensembles, or Composite analogs.... Outlier. We shall bow to King EURO in 1 hour 8 minutes

[BLI snowman]

Winter cancel!!

[Trainwreck]

Outlier? Could be. Earlier ones also were as well, but for the good. So maybe this one is too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just want a freaking frost. 

[Phil]

Crap.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Crap.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

 

Winters over!

[Deweydog]

We're f*cked. Only a month and change to go before spring starts.

[Phil]

Winters over!

Nah, the early December stuff was always a tease IMO.

[Deweydog]

Crap.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

Who's this Hannah E. Attard???

 

Let's take her out back and beat the daylights out of her!!!