November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Today's CFS is UGLY for December. The Rex block pretty much sets up over the west coast. 

 

It was only one of the 4 runs for the day though.  Most have been great for us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we wait til February our patience may be rewarded.

 

http://www.wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_303HR.gif

[HighlandExperience]

[Heavy Snow]

That was their first November snow in 54 years, not their first snow.

 

Okay, thanks for clarifying. 

[snow_wizard]

If we wait til February our patience may be rewarded.

 

 

492 thickness for Seattle!

 

At any rate the 6z was very good for December.  It showed two cold waves..the second and best one just before Christmas.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Going to get nailed

[crf450ish]

Does anyone have any cross references showing what happened here in the PNW the last time Tokyo had snow in November? It may not matter analog wise, but might be fun to compare.

[Jesse]

Are you saying boo, or boo-urns?

Vintage Simpsons reference. I like!

[westcoastexpat]

I'll take a snow producer over a cold producer any day

Agreed. Preferably lots of snow and just a little chilly.

[Timmy]

18z timing around hr 200-250 is sped up a little. But also shifted east a bit, and not as amplified.

[bainbridgekid]

Through hour 222, the 18z bumps up timing of the initial chilly air coming in, but is also less amplified and further East which would likely not result in easy reinforcing shots.

[Jesse]

Agreed. Preferably lots of snow and just a little chilly.

So it all can melt really quickly?

[Deweydog]

GFS trending warmer in the short range.

 

A dip into the 30s looking less likely tomorrow night.

 

I'm sure the arctic outbreak at day 10 will work out just fine though.

Oh Jim...

[westcoastexpat]

So it all can melt really quickly?

Sorry, to clarify, "a little chilly" meaning highs around 30!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I dig the 18z

[Timmy]

I dig the 18z

Doesn't look awesome to me, what's to like with everything shifting east and not as cool? I haven't seen it super extensive since I have crappy reception

[Jesse]

Sorry, to clarify, "a little chilly" meaning highs around 30!

Highs around 30 with snowcover could mean some dangerously cold lows in the wrong type of situation.

[luminen]

[Bryant]

GFS trending warmer in the short range.

 

A dip into the 30s looking less likely tomorrow night.

 

I'm sure the arctic outbreak at day 10 will work out just fine though.

Someone sure is jolly today!

[bainbridgekid]

I dig the 18z

If only it could dig as much as you dig it. 

[Jesse]

Someone sure is jolly today!

Lol.

[Timmy]

If only it could dig as much as you dig it.

The 500 mb pattern looks pretty good but the cold air isn't there. Those are just details. I would rather see the former this far out still.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's actually as cold if not colder than the 12z down here and way more moisture. Tons of foothills snow.

[snow_wizard]

At face value the 18z shows a long period of cold.  Looks pretty possible it will be a two part event with one lesser cold wave in the 8 to 11 day period and then a much more serious event after that.  All of the solutions I'm seeing look like snow.

[snow_wizard]

Someone sure is jolly today!

 

Pretty hard to not be happy with the recent model runs.  The players look potentially epic.

[snow_wizard]

Through hour 222, the 18z bumps up timing of the initial chilly air coming in, but is also less amplified and further East which would likely not result in easy reinforcing shots.

 

Not how it plays out.

[The Swamp]

When Phil shows up and gives us hope, then I will know we are onto something.

[MossMan]

Pretty hard to not be happy with the recent model runs. The players look potentially epic.

I find it interesting that everyone on here looks at the same models, but the interpretation is so wildly different. A little more model tweaking and us western Washingtonians might be looking at the best chance for widespread significant snow since January of 2012.

[Bryant]

We're all snow hungry, but lets be honest, the northern half of Washington has been starving for a while

[HighlandExperience]

We're all snow hungry, but lets be honest, the northern half of Washington has been starving for a while

We are due for a northern favored event.

[Phil]

When Phil shows up and gives us hope, then I will know we are onto something.

I've always had hope. I'm just leaning towards something more backloaded overall, given the poor equator/pole synchronization that's manifested over the last 8+ weeks.

 

I do expect a mammoth EPO/AO plunge around the holidays and/or just afterward, with a corresponding Arctic shot over the nation. How that unfolds is still in question.

[Trainwreck]

I've always had hope. I'm just leaning towards something more backloaded overall, given the poor equator/pole synchronization that's manifested over the last 8+ weeks.

 

I do expect a mammoth EPO/AO plunge around the holidays and/or just afterward, with a corresponding Arctic shot over the nation. How that unfolds is still in question.

I guess what they're saying Phil is, not about next year, how do you like the present model solutions so far?

[stuffradio]

We're all snow hungry, but lets be honest, the northern half of Washington has been starving for a while

So much so a dusting of snow would get me rolling in it and making dust angels!

[Bryant]

We are due for a northern favored event.

The dry blasts aren't much fun imo, with the only potential snow occuring during an overrunning event

[Phil]

I guess what they're saying Phil is, not about next year, how do you like the present model solutions so far?

Modeling aside, I'm confident in a cooler than average December across the PNW, with an opportunity for a significant lowland snowstorm between December 20th and January 5th, followed by a period of ridging thereafter.

 

I don't see a significant Arctic blast until at least late January, as far as widespread cold is concerned, with February offering the best opportunity for some very cold air.

[snow_wizard]

When Phil shows up and gives us hope, then I will know we are onto something.

 

Your comments are getting pretty tiresome.  You should let us in on your analysis.  Thanks for insulting the rest of us also.

[snow_wizard]

The dry blasts aren't much fun imo, with the only potential snow occuring during an overrunning event

 

Indeed.  That's the one thing that would drive me nuts about the Hood Canal area.  Pretty much all of the snow they get turns to rain three hours later.

[Deweydog]

Modeling aside, I'm confident in a cooler than average December across the PNW, with an opportunity for a significant lowland snowstorm between December 20th and January 5th, followed by a period of ridging thereafter.

 

I don't see a significant Arctic blast until at least late January, as far as widespread cold is concerned.

So we have to wait through ANOTHER major snowstorm before we get to an Arctic outbreak???

 

Fudgecicles!!!

[snow_wizard]

I've always had hope. I'm just leaning towards something more backloaded overall, given the poor equator/pole synchronization that's manifested over the last 8+ weeks.

 

I do expect a mammoth EPO/AO plunge around the holidays and/or just afterward, with a corresponding Arctic shot over the nation. How that unfolds is still in question.

 

That would be nice if the stuff over the next two weeks just ends up being appetizer.

[westcoastexpat]

That would be nice if the stuff over the next two weeks just ends up being appetizer.

 

It would be nice, but we should be cautious. In recent history, very warm falls across the continent have December being the best month of winter.

 

But, I don't chain myself to analogs. Anything could happen, from torch to tundra!