November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

You sure woke up on the wrong side of the bed! It's fun tracking possibilities...Cheer up! Apple Cup in 3hrs!!!!!

What are you on about? My point was that this season is different from the last season because we have seen a ton of mountain snow much earlier. I was being positive!

[ShawniganLake]

We're f****d

Seems like your early December call is coming into focus.  Are the tropics still progressing like you expected. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Relax god controls the weather. We are just waiting to see if he gives us what were looking for

[Deweydog]

I think it's pretty clear that once things turn ******* awesome they should remain ******* awesome for 6-18 weeks or so.

[DareDuck]

Yeah it's pretty frustrating, I have watched borderline snow turn into 2500'-5000' snow levels in the last 2 weeks in that mid range

Yea I'm in a "I'll believe it when I see it" mode. Models showed a chance of snow here several times this week but then as we get closer, nothing moves through. Now they show Sunday, but that'll probably just end up north before digging into CA, bypassing us. As mentioned before, the systems are digging offshore so we're left in the warmer, drier area out ahead of it.

[ShawniganLake]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[Deweydog]

Relax god controls the weather. We are just waiting to see if he gives us what were looking for

God hates blocking.

[FroYoBro]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

That certainly isn't very impressive.

[Bryant]

Is my phone living in the future?! Stop playing with my emotions like this!

 

http://i.imgur.com/eZL737G.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

Definitely improvement on the Ensembles

[Jesse]

You seemed like you were having a little grumpy fit this morning. I was mostly just poking fun.

For wishing the models would move timing up?

[Gradient Keeper]

Crap, not this again. Admins, can you please give me 20-30 more

 

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[stuffradio]

 

Crap, not this again. Admins, can you please give me 20-30 more

 

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You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day

 

Who do you think I am, God!?

[Gradient Keeper]

Who do you think I am, God!?

Sometimes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely improvement on the Ensembles

 

I don't see it. The mean looks warmer than the 06z ensembles.

[TT-SEA]

Bastardi just used the words "cold" and "west" in the same sentence.  Jim will be pleased. 

 

 

But Bastardi is the worst forecaster on the planet according to Jim so how will be pleased??   

[Gradient Keeper]

I don't see it. The mean looks warmer than the 06z ensembles.

850mb mean is cooler than previous 2 runs, also more -5c to -7c members. 500mb positive anomaly looks great.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF - Day 3 500mb

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112512/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_4.png

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM Ensembles were very good.

[Timmy Supercell]

It is going to be nice having a cold snap right after all this mountain snow. This season feels very different than the last two. 

 

So even more mountain snow than last season? Not sure if that will be very easy to accomplish! 

 

It's not late December.

 

It may not be but I have literally seen posts that group last winter with '14-'15 which I think is shocking.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 - 500mb

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112512/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_6.png

[HighlandExperience]

[The Swamp]

Day 5 - 500mb

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112512/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_6.png

That map doesn't show snow but maybe NW flow and 1500 ft snow levels. Need more robust blocking spiking the ridge.

 

Rumor has it The Great Bastardi mentioned the west and cold. Can anyone confirm?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 - 500mb

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112512/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

[Brennan]

Ok after the 12z, and those pictures of Snoqualmie Pass i’m 100% ready to go full weenie mode!!!

 

Seems rather likely we’re going to enter a period of “COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION!"

 

Good call Bryant. You’ve been calling for this for over a month now.

 

Also, my dad’s phone mentioned winter weather in whatcom county last night too.. Not sure what that’s about. I think it’s probably referring to Mt Baker area. 

[Bryant]

Seems like your early December call is coming into focus. Are the tropics still progressing like you expected.

Tropics have progressed as good as I could have hoped for considering it was an extrapolated time frame. Tropical forcing (MJO) is currently over the west IO, and pushes into the east IO/Maritime region during the first few days of December. I always focus on the east IO/Maritime location because that is the region which results in the best potential for us due to interactions between the convection (MJO) and the jet stream. I'd say the 5th-15th is our window for this particular forced pattern.

 

What happens afterwards, I'm not sure. If the MJO maintains strength and pushes into the west pacific, then we look to teeter totter as a more El Nino / hybrid pattern takes over and the cold favors the east. If propagatory forcing winds down, then the background state will once again take over. This MJO wave could possibly aid in strengthening/elongating the Nina cell, which is crucial.

[Bryant]

Ok after the 12z, and those pictures of Snoqualmie Pass i’m 100% ready to go full weenie mode!!!

 

Seems rather likely we’re going to enter a period of “COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION!"

 

Good call Bryant. You’ve been calling for this for over a month now.

 

Also, my dad’s phone mentioned winter weather in whatcom county last night too.. Not sure what that’s about. I think it’s probably referring to Mt Baker area.

Thank you buddy

[Front Ranger]

Timing does move up on 12z Euro. Ridge not quite as amplified, but a little closer to coast. Result: modified Arctic intrusion starts at day 10 (at the border) and definitely looks to get colder from there.

[Gradient Keeper]

Teleconnection Indices forecast

-PNA, -EPO tanking as we head into December. Looks great.

 

http://i.imgur.com/iNVfer3.png

[Heavy Snow]

Day 10 of the 12z EURO looks awesome.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112512/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Timmy]

Day 10 of the 12z EURO looks awesome.

 

everything is awesome!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112512/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112512/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_11.png

[Timmy]

Only 10 days away!  

 

 

actually it is good to see it move up.  upper levels in the mid range look decent too, its just a matter of how much cold air is available then to see how low snow levels will get.

[Gradient Keeper]

Timing does move up on 12z Euro. Ridge not quite as amplified, but a little closer to coast. Result: modified Arctic intrusion starts at day 10 (at the border) and definitely looks to get colder from there.

It absolutely did. 500mb pattern sets up just after day 6 upstream. At the least a modified blast is coming.

 

Day 10 of the 12z EURO looks awesome.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112512/240/500h_anom.na.png

Yep, looks real good.

[snow_wizard]

Only 10 days away!  

 

 

actually it is good to see it move up.  upper levels in the mid range look decent too, its just a matter of how much cold air is available then to see how low snow levels will get.

Almost every one of these I've seen that actually works out has the timing move up as the time frame narrows. The ECMWF looks great today for sure.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hoping we see improvements with the 12z EC EPS....

 

Onto 00z! in 8 hours 18 minutes !!!!

[snow_wizard]

Teleconnection Indices forecast

 

 

-PNA, -EPO tanking as we head into December. Looks great.

 

 

 

When the PNA and EPO are both tanked it's hard to miss getting cold here.

[chopper 918]

Yes, we need to see the goods within 6-7 days before we can consider it realistic.

[Gradient Keeper]

Almost every one of these I've seen that actually works out has the timing move up as the time frame narrows. The ECMWF looks great today for sure.

Exceptional agreement with the GFS, GEM/CMC, ECMWF on the 500mb pattern progression days 6-10. I tried to LIKE your comment, but it says I have reached my quota for the day. C'mon seriously if that can be adjusted we need it to be.

[snow_wizard]

I'm pleased to see this might happen in early December. Sets up a reasonable potential for a repeat about 30 days later which would put January in play. If it ends up being top tier January is less likely to work out, but at least top tier anytime in December is certainly better than if had happened in November.