November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[The Swamp]

I would love nothing more than for timing to get moved up. A nice arctic blast for the Carolina Panthers game would be epic!

[stuffradio]

I'm pleased to see this might happen in early December. Sets up a reasonable potential for a repeat about 30 days later which would put January in play. If it ends up being top tier January is less likely to work out, but at least top tier anytime in December is certainly better than if had happened in November.

A couple years ago, I was talking to one of my co-workers about a top-tier event possibly happening. It looked epic for around New Years. Temps would have dropped to -15 to -20, but it fell apart

 

I don't get as excited about temps that cold (except maybe for stats reasons alone), but I get super excited about lots of snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Out getting scrap wood today to fill up the wood bin. Cannot have to much wood heading into the coldest winter since 1861-62. 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like a pretty nice Black Friday in Seattle: http://50yrcamera.spaceneedle.net/

 

 

[Timmy]

Maybe the CFS isn't all bad...

 

http://i.imgur.com/SVRp29l.png

[Bryant]

Maybe the CFS isn't all bad...

 

A broken clock is right twice a day

[Front Ranger]

Most of next week still looks fairly chilly. Cooler than this week has been for sure.

[stuffradio]

Booooo.

Are you saying boo, or boo-urns?

[Heavy Snow]

Talk about strong agreement. The updated runs of the 12z GFS, GEM and EURO all agree that the Arctic Front is just north of Vancouver Island at Day 10. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112512/240/850th_nb.na.pnghttp://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112512/240/850th_nb.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112512/240/850t.na.png

[liquidsnow]

I bought a new TV.

 

The last time I bought a TV? December 2008.

The time before that? December 1996.

 

You're welcome.

[Timmy Supercell]

I bought a new TV.

 

The last time I bought a TV? December 2008.

The time before that? December 1996.

 

You're welcome.

 

December 2013 was when I got the laptop I'm typing on. Right before the arctic blast.

 

Thanks you're welcome.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I bought a new TV.

 

The last time I bought a TV? December 2008.

The time before that? December 1996.

 

You're welcome.

It was right time for an upgrade.

[liquidsnow]

December 2013 was when I got the laptop I'm typing on. Right before the arctic blast.

 

Thanks you're welcome.

 

Hmmm, I smell a crowdfunding idea! Please donate me $$$ for my annual December TV! The bigger the TV, the bigger the arctic blasts will be!

 

Anyone know where Phil is? I want him to weight in on the recent trends.

[catnip]

I bought a new TV.

 

The last time I bought a TV? December 2008.

The time before that? December 1996.

 

You're welcome.

Post of the month right here!

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the record I don't think we are going to have a true arctic blast in early December. But likely something decently cool and some lowland snow in the PNW

[bainbridgekid]

For the record I don't think we are going to have a true arctic blast in early December. But likely something decently cool and some lowland snow in the PNW

I don't ever put much stock in anything past day 10, but the consistency is pretty impressive and does give some credence to this idea.

 

It's important to remember it doesn't take a blast to get significant lowland snow in December and January. Plenty of examples of that.

[Front Ranger]

Canadian ensemble mean days 11-15.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

I don't ever put much stock in anything past day 10, but the consistency is pretty impressive and does give some credence to this idea.

 

It's important to remember it doesn't take a blast to get significant lowland snow in December and January. Plenty of examples of that.

 

Yeah, at this point this upcoming pattern looks like it has a better shot at being a snow producer than some recent blasts.

[Bryant]

Yeah, at this point this upcoming pattern looks like it has a better shot at being a snow producer than some recent blasts.

 

I'll take a snow producer over a cold producer any day  

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF ensemble continues to improve.  The control model shows us going into the freezer with snow.  This is the ensemble mean.'

 

 

[snow_wizard]

I'll take a snow producer over a cold producer any day  

 

Both is the best!

[Heavy Snow]

The ECMWF ensemble continues to improve. The control model shows us going into the freezer with snow. This is the ensemble mean.'

Wow! This is reminding me of December 2008 with the great model agreement.

[MossMan]

Hoping we see improvements with the 12z EC EPS....

 

Onto 00z! in 8 hours 18 minutes !!!!

What about our favorite drunk uncle 18z Mike?

[snow_wizard]

What about our favorite drunk uncle 18z Mike?

 

-25 850s for SEA?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It will be interesting to see how much rain I picked up yesterday when I get home in a bit. Models show another 2.5" or so over the rest of the weekend at my location. 

[MossMan]

-25 850s for SEA?

That would work!! Get him another drink, stat!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The other piece of good news is this looks to happen before I leave for Oklahoma on the 14th. That'll be our mild reset week

[Timmy]

The other piece of good news is this looks to happen before I leave for Oklahoma on the 14th. That'll be our mild reset week

I'll be hunting in south Texas Jan 11-16th that will be the epic blast here. Book it

[The Swamp]

I'll be hunting in south Texas Jan 11-16th that will be the epic blast here. Book it

 

What will you be hunting in Texas?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z running now OMG.

[bainbridgekid]

Strap in. It's time for the 18z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tomorrow evening and Monday look good for Oregon Cascade snow above 4,000'.

[snow_wizard]

Strap in. It's time for the 18z.

 

I added some straps to my office chair just for this occasion.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today's CFS is UGLY for December. The Rex block pretty much sets up over the west coast. 

[Heavy Snow]

Tokyo just had its first November snow in 54 years. What does the updated run of the 12z JMA say? It says the same thing all the other models are saying! Unbelievable agreement between the models, their all on the train now!

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_240_0850.gif

[snow_wizard]

It just snowed in Tokyo for the first time in 54 years. What does the updated run of the 12z JMA say? It says the same thing all the other models are saying! Unbelievable agreement between the models, their all on the train now!

 

 

Truly unreal to have everything showing it.

[Timmy]

What will you be hunting in Texas?

Deer

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS NOT ON BOARD. 

[bainbridgekid]

It just snowed in Tokyo for the first time in 54 years. What does the updated run of the 12z JMA say? It says the same thing all the other models are saying! Unbelievable agreement between the models, their all on the train now!

 

 

 

That was their first November snow in 54 years, not their first snow.