November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy]

Losing stuff in the mid-range is never a good sign IMO.

 

One reason I have never been on board with this one. Until things start improving in the 5-7 day range I couldn't really care less. The models have been watering down the mid range for well over a month now.

Yeah it's pretty frustrating, I have watched borderline snow turn into 2500'-5000' snow levels in the last 2 weeks in that mid range

[Jesse]

Oh god Jesse. Did you get beat up black friday shopping?

This is coming from the weenie king of course.

 

I refuse to participate in that ridiculous holiday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6z ensembles were pretty decent. I don't think we'll get a blast, but maybe a warning shot! 

[Jesse]

Yeah it's pretty frustrating, I have watched borderline snow turn into 2500'-5000' snow levels in the last 2 weeks in that mid range

Yeah, I have noticed that when the models are doing that the cold stuff in the long range usually doesn't mean much. It will just meet the same fate.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow this overall 500mb pattern has so much incredible potential for multiple blasts and snow events.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We love that 12z don't we!!!

[Jesse]

We love that 12z don't we!!!

Turd sandwich?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, I have noticed that when the models are doing that the cold stuff in the long range usually doesn't mean much. It will just meet the same fate.

 

Well with the most recent systems there have been a few issues. The troughs are digging enough, they are kind of hanging up with the trough axis staying offshore and to the north. Also not a lot of cold air on this side of the globe. That will be changing and hopefully can shake things up a bit. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Turd sandwich?

 

It is actually really good. 

[Jesse]

Well with the most recent systems there have been a few issues. The troughs are digging enough, they are kind of hanging up with the trough axis staying offshore and to the north. Also not a lot of cold air on this side of the globe. That will be changing and hopefully can shake things up a bit.

That would be nice.

[Timmy]

Euro this morning will be telling, we need to see some good at day 9, not just 10

[Gradient Keeper]

Happy with seeing the pattern setting up upstream around day 7. Very consistent agreement for that. Hopefully future runs will show the Kona/Anchor low. IF so, look out we will see one hell of a December to remember. MBG

[Heavy Snow]

Wow, the updated run of the 12z GEM is actually quite good. It will take enough of an over water trajectory to spin up moisture but still be cold enough once the Arctic Front drops on down. You can clearly see the Arctic Front on the maps.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112512/240/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112512/240/850th_nb.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM 500mb progression is excellent and bitter air spills south into BC/AB quickly.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112512/240/850th_nb.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Backdoor cold shot on 12z GEM day 7-8 looks chilly

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112512/186/sfct.us_nw.png

[TT-SEA]

The sun is trying to come out!  

[Jesse]

 

 

 

Backdoor cold shot on 12z GEM day 7-8 looks chilly

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112512/186/sfct.us_nw.png

That's what I'm talking about. Give me improvement in the mid range. Move things up!

[HighlandExperience]

That's what I'm talking about. Give me improvement in the mid range. Move things up!

 

It is going to be nice having a cold snap right after all this mountain snow. This season feels very different than the last two. 

[TT-SEA]

That's what I'm talking about. Give me improvement in the mid range. Move things up!

 

No doubt.   I need to see things moving up before I even start paying attention to the details.   

[crf450ish]

That's what I'm talking about. Give me improvement in the mid range. Move things up!

You actually just took the words right from my fingertips. It appears the timing is moving up closer to the verifiable range. This is good. If the models can stay trending in this direction we should all see some action. Hopefully the block gods look down upon us with a smile.

[MossMan]

The sun is trying to come out!

Mostly sunny here!

[Jesse]

It is going to be nice having a cold snap right after all this mountain snow. This season feels very different than the last two.

If we get one, it definitely would!

 

And I will grant that it does.

[TT-SEA]

Mostly sunny here!

 

Filtered sun here... but its dried out and looks nice out there.     

[Timmy]

Filtered sun here... but its dried out and looks nice out there.

Since 9pm Wednesday I have been between 40-43 degrees!

[TT-SEA]

It is going to be nice having a cold snap right after all this mountain snow. This season feels very different than the last two. 

 

 

Last December was spectacular for mountain snow.

 

This was on 12/19/15 at Snoqualmie Pass...

 

 

 

[Jesse]

No doubt. I need to see things moving up before I even start paying attention to the details.

Yeah the attention to details beyond day 7 or so is something I've never really understood. I think there are some who get a lot of enjoyment from simply tracking the models. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

[stuffradio]

12Z GFS not as "epic" as the 00z in the clown range, but it's plenty epic still.

[FroYoBro]

People are already going in full weenie mode and we are finally getting something interesting to track. It definitely looks like we have a decent shot at something interesting I'm the snow/cold department in the next two weeks. Calm down everyone (Jesse).

[HighlandExperience]

Last December was spectacular for mountain snow.

 

This was on 12/19/15 at Snoqualmie Pass...

 

 

 

 

Overall last year was fairly decent, but we have had much better ski seasons overall. 

[Jesse]

Last December was spectacular for mountain snow.

 

This was on 12/19/15 at Snoqualmie Pass...

 

 

It's not late December.

[TT-SEA]

Overall last year was fairly decent, but we have had much better ski seasons overall. 

 

 

I hope we can come close to the amount of snow in those pictures in 24 days.

[Jesse]

People are already going in full weenie mode and we are finally getting something interesting to track. It definitely looks like we have a decent shot at something interesting I'm the snow/cold department in the next two weeks. Calm down everyone (Jesse).

I haven't done anything.

[TT-SEA]

People are already going in full weenie mode and we are finally getting something interesting to track. It definitely looks like we have a decent shot at something interesting I'm the snow/cold department in the next two weeks. Calm down everyone (Jesse).

 

 

Jesse has been the most calm.   

[Guest happ]

Last December was spectacular for mountain snow.

 

This was on 12/19/15 at Snoqualmie Pass...

 

 

 

 

Oh my God

[ShawniganLake]

Bastardi just used the words "cold" and "west" in the same sentence.  Jim will be pleased. 

[FroYoBro]

I haven't done anything.

You seemed like you were having a little grumpy fit this morning. I was mostly just poking fun.

[Bryant]

Bastardi just used the words "cold" and "west" in the same sentence. Jim will be pleased.

We're f****d

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF

Begins in.... 3 minutes

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

[MossMan]

It's not late December.

You sure woke up on the wrong side of the bed! It's fun tracking possibilities...Cheer up! Apple Cup in 3hrs!!!!!

[HighlandExperience]

Bastardi just used the words "cold" and "west" in the same sentence.  Jim will be pleased. 

 

Bastardi is a big Trump fan. That should make Jim happy.