November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

FWIW, I feel very strongly that as long as February doesn't flip into a +AO/+EPO, there will be a very significant Arctic event that month sometime. Don't want to get too far ahead of myself here, but I think there are a number of indicators that favor such a progression.

[The Swamp]

Your comments are getting pretty tiresome.  You should let us in on your analysis.  Thanks for insulting the rest of us also.

 

I don't think I've insulted anyone.

 

We're on the right track......

Things are falling into place......

We are due......

I saw an extra furry squirrel......

I feel it.....

 

All a bunch of hyperbole and exuberance and not based in reality.  HR 384 on the 18Z is just that.  Crap.

 

Now maybe I have.

 

I'm looking at the same models as you and I doubt what you see in ten days will verify.

 

The ridge isn't sharp enough.  It's too flat.  The low going in near Hawaii is here on run one and gone on another.

 

My guess is the first big blast of winter will likely dive south around Montana and east.  I don't consider this a warning shot.  It will flat out miss us.  How is that a warning?

[Phil]

So we have to wait through ANOTHER major snowstorm before we get to an Arctic outbreak???

 

Fudgecicles!!!

Haha, it looks quite cold to me, just not historically noteworthy.

 

By historically noteworthy, I mean something like a western version of February 2015. Could be a dry blast if that's significant, I really don't know. Just pointing out the potential.

[snow_wizard]

I don't think I've insulted anyone.

 

We're on the right track......

Things are falling into place......

We are due......

I saw an extra furry squirrel......

I feel it.....

 

All a bunch of hyperbole and exuberance and not based in reality.  HR 384 on the 18Z is just that.  Crap.

 

Now maybe I have.

 

I'm looking at the same models as you and I doubt what you see in ten days will verify.

 

The ridge isn't sharp enough.  It's too flat.  The low going in near Hawaii is here on run one and gone on another.

 

My guess is the first big blast of winter will likely dive south around Montana and east.  I don't consider this a warning shot.  It will flat out miss us.  How is that a warning?

 

Hour 384?  Have you even looked at the models recently?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Best case for early December I think is an early December 1992 type event.

[The Swamp]

Hour 384?  Have you even looked at the models recently?

 

I guess we'll see what happens and leave it at that.

 

I hope for your sake you are right.  A nice pre-Christmas cold snap would be satisfying.

[Front Ranger]

Modeling aside, I'm confident in a cooler than average December across the PNW, with an opportunity for a significant lowland snowstorm between December 20th and January 5th, followed by a period of ridging thereafter.

 

I don't see a significant Arctic blast until at least late January, as far as widespread cold is concerned, with February offering the best opportunity for some very cold air.

 

I think there's a very good chance of significant Arctic blasts throughout this winter, Dec-Feb. Just a matter of who gets hit, much like 2013-14 and 2010-11.

[Deweydog]

Haha, it looks quite cold to me, just not historically noteworthy.

 

By historically noteworthy, I mean something like a western version of February 2015. Could be a dry blast if that's significant, I really don't know. Just pointing out the potential.

Well it's been a couple years since we've set some all time record lows, so we are overdue...

[Bryant]

I don't think I've insulted anyone.

 

We're on the right track......

Things are falling into place......

We are due......

I saw an extra furry squirrel......

I feel it.....

 

All a bunch of hyperbole and exuberance and not based in reality. HR 384 on the 18Z is just that. Crap.

 

Now maybe I have.

 

I'm looking at the same models as you and I doubt what you see in ten days will verify.

 

The ridge isn't sharp enough. It's too flat. The low going in near Hawaii is here on run one and gone on another.

 

My guess is the first big blast of winter will likely dive south around Montana and east. I don't consider this a warning shot. It will flat out miss us. How is that a warning?

I feel as though you haven't even looked at the models, and just combined all the negative comments you could find over the past few days into one comment.

[The Swamp]

I feel as though you haven't even looked at the models, and just combined all the negative comments you could find over the past few days into one comment.

 

How could I miss the models?  I've been reading every page of this months posts and looking at them on my own as well.

 

Trust me.  I've looked at the models.

[Bryant]

http://i.imgur.com/wLuyliY.jpg

[snow_wizard]

The 18z ensemble is the best yet. The mean drops to -6 and a number of members -8 or below.

[Deweydog]

My wife bought me new long johns today during the shopping extravaganza.  Has to mean something...

[westcoastexpat]

[westcoastexpat]

98/99 and 07/08 analogs popping up all over the place.

[snow_wizard]

 

I love that graphic!

[Karl Bonner]

Looks like we have much to be thankful for, wishcast-wise, this holiday weekend!  Still cold across Siberia at the same time that another arctic airmass pushes into first Yukon and then BC/Alberta: 

 

[MossMan]

http://i.imgur.com/7drHiqr.gif

That is going to be every single one of us when the first flakes start falling! Well except for Fred and Phil.

[snow_wizard]

98/99 and 07/08 analogs popping up all over the place.

 

I didn't see those on the CPC analogs today.  Looks like Dec 1971 is the analog of the day.  I could go for that any day of the week.

[Bryant]

That is going to be every single one of us when the first flakes start falling! Well except for Fred and Phil.

They've both seen flakes already

[Front Ranger]

The 18z ensemble is the best yet. The mean drops to -6 and a number of members -8 or below.

 

Definitely not as good as the Euro or Canadian ensembles, though.

[Front Ranger]

I didn't see those on the CPC analogs today.  Looks like Dec 1971 is the analog of the day.  I could go for that any day of the week.

 

Yeah, I'm not sure where he's seeing 2007/1998 everywhere.

[MossMan]

Definitely not as good as the Euro or Canadian ensembles, though.

Good thing the GFS is the nose picker of the group.

Finally a dry day here! Also lots of water still over the roadways around my area. Was able to get some leaves taken care of before the Apple Cup.

[MossMan]

Yeah, I'm not sure where he's seeing 2007/1998 everywhere.

1998 was ok! But from what I remember 2007 sucked as the snow level was constantly about 200 or so feet above me for what seemed like weeks. So frustrating!!

[Timmy Supercell]

1998 was ok! But from what I remember 2007 sucked as the snow level was constantly about 200 or so feet above me for what seemed like weeks. So frustrating!!

 

In western OR no lowland snow occurred in 2007. And I would even call the Gale storm rather tropical temp wise. But I hear the mountains got pounded in that one.

[HighlandExperience]

[stuffradio]

I'm at 11.41 inches of rain this month so far.

[Timmy Supercell]

2007 felt like it was on the cusp of greatness. Very annoyed over the constant 34 degree rain.

 

I imagine global warming ruined that winter

 

I recall 60+ degree rain a couple days in Dec 2007. I thought that was wonderful actually. Humid too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting how the rain fell here the past two days. The heaviest precipitation was definitely focused north and west of here, especially west. 0.89" yesterday and 1.28" today. Looks like a seasonably mild 48/41 today. Third straight sub 50 high... It may be awhile until I see another.

[Front Ranger]

I recall 60+ degree rain a couple days in Dec 2007. I thought that was wonderful actually. Humid too.

 

Heretic.

[Phil]

I think there's a very good chance of significant Arctic blasts throughout this winter, Dec-Feb. Just a matter of who gets hit, much like 2013-14 and 2010-11.

Based on the observed, ongoing, and climatologically favored progressions of the tropical forcings, stratosphere, and interactive waveguides, I think the first window (for the western states) is from mid/late December to early January, followed by another window in February.

[Front Ranger]

Based on the observed, ongoing, and climatologically favored progressions of the tropical forcings, stratosphere, and interactive waveguides, I think the first window (for the western states) is from mid/late December to early January, followed by another window in February.

 

So the window is open most the winter, then. 

[Phil]

98/99 and 07/08 analogs popping up all over the place.

Uh, no..

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Based on the observed, ongoing, and climatologically favored progressions of the tropical forcings, stratosphere, and interactive waveguides, I think the first window (for the western states) is from mid/late December to early January, followed by another window in February.

So you are thinking no to an early December warning shot.

[Gradient Keeper]

[ Model Countdown ]

Next up....

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[Phil]

They've both seen flakes already

Getting drunk on an inch of snow is such a PNW thing.

[chopper 918]

In western OR no lowland snow occurred in 2007. And I would even call the Gale storm rather tropical temp wise. But I hear the mountains got pounded in that one.

Yeah, 2007 sucked balls.  So did 1998.

[HighlandExperience]

[Phil]

So you are thinking no to an early December warning shot.

I think anything before December 10th is mostly a modeling tease, yeah. A few degrees cooler than average maybe? I'm watching for a significant EPO/AO tank starting around the Holidays, however.

[Karl Bonner]

Based on the observed, ongoing, and climatologically favored progressions of the tropical forcings, stratosphere, and interactive waveguides, I think the first window (for the western states) is from mid/late December to early January, followed by another window in February.

 

1951 and 1989 and 2008 and 2012 were all La Nina, and look what happened in March those years....