November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

I am getting ready to laugh out loud when I see the 00z ensembles.

They good.

[crf450ish]

 

Rough Guide to Snow level in PNW

By Chris Callais on Monday, February 10, 2014 at 12:18pm

 

Rough guide to determining 50% snow criteria for western Oregon/Washington. 50% snow criteria meaning given at least one of these criteria are met snow would be expected in 50% of cases assuming moderate precip.

 

Elevation....500 mb thickness (dam)....850 mb temp ©....850 mb thickness (dam)

Sea level....526.......-8......129

500'...........528.......-7

1000'.........530.......-6

2000'.........534.......-4

3000'.........538.......-2

4000'.........542.......0

5000'.........546.......+2

6000'.........550.......+4

7000'.........554.......+6

8000'.........558.......+8

9000'.........562.......+10

10000'.......566.......+12

11000'.......570.......+14

12000'.......574.......+16

 

Basically for every 1000' in elevation change a change of 4 dam in thickness or 2c in 850 mb temp

Very good thank you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah as expected the 00z is HUGE outlier. There are some good members though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well, while the 00z GFS was definitely a cold outlier (no surprise), there are still quite a few members that get close to -10c.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Still some possibility for a little improvement for the middle of next week too. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Warmest November on record?

 

Looks to be nearly a lock for warmest in Klamath. It's a June 2015 kind of month. The first half practically took over the rest.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

It would be real nice to see improvements before day 9-10. I would like to see the offshore ridge show less amplitude after day 5 and the ridge near the Aleutians stronger/more amplified days 7-9.

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

[Timmy Supercell]

December is our only winter month now. We have to make it count! 

 

Not sure how February suddenly lost all potential.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 8-14 Composite Analog is improved vs 18z, 12z

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 compared to 00z last night see some suppression of the ridge offshore

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_5.png

[stuffradio]

It's raining really hard tonight. Maybe I will reach the 12" plateau of rain by tomorrow for November.

[ShawniganLake]

0z GEPS also has nice improvements over the 0z last night. Deeper trough in the west. Some semblance of a SE ridge.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmm

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_6.png

[snow_wizard]

Pretty nice GFS run to say the least. Nice to see some ensemble support and a really good GEM run also.

[snow_wizard]

00z GFS Day 8-14 Composite Analog is improved vs 18z, 12z

 

 

 

The first cold shot of 1968-69 is the number one analog. Hopefully if this pans out we will still get the two biggies later on like that winter.

[snow_wizard]

It's always winter in the clown range.  Always.

Getting a little bit old...

[liquidsnow]

That low in the Aleutians needs to piss off.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_7.png

[snow_wizard]

I'm liking the fact we are seeing so many old analogs recently. This might be going down a different path than anything in recent years.

[Gradient Keeper]

0z GEPS also has nice improvements over the 0z last night. Deeper trough in the west. Some semblance of a SE ridge.

Alaska and Yukon turn absolutely bitterly cold too.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_8.png

[Heavy Snow]

 

 

 

00z GFS Day 8-14 Composite Analog is improved vs 18z, 12z

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

Love the Winter of 1968-69 analog showing up on the top spot!

[liquidsnow]

^ Look at the cold air that's about to enter Alaska!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112500/ecmwf_T850_namer_8.png

[snow_wizard]

The GEM ensemble has a lot of good members and the mean is quite decent.

[snow_wizard]

I bet the ECMWF will look good at day 10 also.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

[Front Ranger]

Euro is looking good at day 8.

[liquidsnow]

I bet the ECMWF will look good at day 10 also.

 

Even better that true arctic air enters this side of the globe! We'll have cold to tap into shall the stars align.

[snow_wizard]

Day 8

 

Oh boy.

 

That looks potentially epic.

[liquidsnow]

Here it comes!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.png

Who likes their Vodka ice cold?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112500/ecmwf_T850_namer_10.png

[Heavy Snow]

Oh boy.

 

That looks potentially epic.

Get ready PNW!

[snow_wizard]

Here it comes!

 

Insane surface high complex over the NE Pacific / GOA / Aleutians.

[liquidsnow]

Boom, there it is! And with a cold onshore flow as well! :D

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

[Front Ranger]

Day 10. Shitload of cold air not far away...

 

 

[BLI snowman]

Awesome model agreement for so far out right now. All the majors on board.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9-10 brutal cold in Yukon, Northwest Territories sliding south into British Columbia/Alberta

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112500/ecmwf_T850_ak_11.png

[HighlandExperience]

I bet the ECMWF will look good at day 10 also.

 

Waiting for Phil to come in and tell us it won't look good. 

[Heavy Snow]

We're on our way. What an unbelievable way to cap off Thanksgiving Day! Now time for sleep to go Black Friday shopping.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z in 2 hours 26 minutes!!!!

[snow_wizard]

Day 10. Shitload of cold air not far away...

 

ps2png-atls03-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-fuIf7O.png

Looks like a sure snow producer if it verifies like that.

 

There is even a Kona low being depicted which is usually good for bonus points.

[Gradient Keeper]

Awesome model agreement for so far out right now. All the majors on board.

Yeah, I'm honestly very impressed how good the agreement is being so far out. The pattern sets up just after day 7 upstream.