Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Money]

Here was 12z GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031512/240/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

6z:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031506/240/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[james1976]

After a rather dull winter a lot of us still have a chance at passing our seasonal snowfall averages. Im at about 30" so far. Avg is 35"

[gosaints]

Verbatim looks like a more typical spring storm compared to the last one in terms of the airmass that it is running into.  Potential generous rain maker/concrete mixer

[Money]

Verbatim looks like a more typical spring storm compared to the last one in terms of the airmass that it is running into. Potential generous rain maker/concrete mixer

Need the storm to come in faster or the high to slow down

 

6z was different in how it handled that high

[jaster220]

Runs outta gas heading east..warsh, rinse, repeat. Guess the days of storms strengthening for mby are ovva! for the time being anyways

[gosaints]

Need the storm to come in faster or the high to slow down

 

6z was different in how it handled that high

Right way out in model land so who knows

[Minny_Weather]

Seems like we could get a rather significant storm system moving in late next week. Everyone in Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois should be glad it'll be late March and not January, let me put it that way. 

 

Even though GFS is never reliable after hour 240, if everything up to hour 384 were to verify, that would be instant drought relief and then some. Some ensemble members are spoiling us for snow too (won't verify). 

[Tom]

The LRC's central CONUS "Ridge" has been a dominant theme this past Winter season.  Here are a couple maps illustrating the abysmal snowfall totals underneath the mean Ridge.

 

 

[Niko]

Its looking cold and snowy for at least 2 more weeks. UGH! Jet Stream will be too stubborn. We should of had a jet like this in J and F.

[james1976]

Snowfall so far this season

[jaster220]

Snowfall so far this season

 

That's not too accurate over mby. Missing ~ 10" 

[Tom]

It's almost comical how strong storms just fall apart in the central states.  Latest 12z GFS is trending that way...take a look at 500mb how potent storms slam the west, erode as they head east and basically fall part....the mean ridge in play...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031612/gfs_z500_vort_us_26.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031612/gfs_z500_vort_us_35.png

 

Second storm hits the west and defletcts north as it hits the Ridge...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031612/gfs_z500_vort_us_38.png

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031612/gfs_z500_vort_us_45.png

[gosaints]

Soil moisture should be good

[Tom]

Soil moisture should be good

Any moisture for them will be appreciated...

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/current/current_usdm.png

 

 

Hopefully NE/KS/OK posters cash in...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031612/gfs_apcpn_us_40.png

[Tom]

CPC's April outlook looking good for sustained Spring weather???

 

 

[jaster220]

@ CPC map

 

I'd pay good $$ to make that verify. Gotta have a decent April after last year's 1982-esque pseudo-winter month!

[NEJeremy]

liking the wording from the SPC for next week. Could be active, especially if the Euro is correct. 0Z Euro had a deep low pressure right over the top of Omaha at hour 192.

 

By Thu/D8, the trough and surface cyclone are forecast to deepen
further, and at this point, appear to hold the greatest risk for
severe weather. Moisture and instability will be a bit better than
on the previous day, and the ECMWF shows a classic deep cyclone
favoring all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes. However,
predictability is low at D8, especially considering the current
level of run-to-run model consistency. Thus, will defer to later
outlooks for potential areas, which may eventually include the
central and southern Plains, as well as the Missouri and mid
Mississippi valleys.

[gimmesnow]

Are we taking rain or snow or some nasty mix?

[jaster220]

@ Drought map

 

I could see that D0 line rapidly moving northeast into Chicago once full-on spring sets in. I wouldn't be surprise if that mean ridge just "blows up" massive through the warm season engulfing a large area of the CONUS causing the same areas to score "ring of fire" storms and moisture with the rest getting dryer and dryer. Just my gut call at this range, no science here.

[jaster220]

liking the wording from the SPC for next week. Could be active, especially if the Euro is correct. 0Z Euro had a deep low pressure right over the top of Omaha at hour 192.

 

By Thu/D8, the trough and surface cyclone are forecast to deepen

further, and at this point, appear to hold the greatest risk for

severe weather. Moisture and instability will be a bit better than

on the previous day, and the ECMWF shows a classic deep cyclone

favoring all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes. However,

predictability is low at D8, especially considering the current

level of run-to-run model consistency. Thus, will defer to later

outlooks for potential areas, which may eventually include the

central and southern Plains, as well as the Missouri and mid

Mississippi valleys.

 

LOL at breaking down a D8 model (any model) for specific "threats". They don't do that for snow systems, they know better...good luck with that though

[gosaints]

Extended looking better and better for severe prospects and nice temps...

[james1976]

Lookin fward to tstorms and warm temps

[james1976]

GFS with 3 large systems in the extended. If it isnt gonna be snow I hope we can score some tstorm action.

[NEJeremy]

LOL at breaking down a D8 model (any model) for specific "threats". They don't do that for snow systems, they know better...good luck with that though

thus the reason why they didn't issue any outlook areas. all they said is that the current run of EURO shows a good setup and model inconsistencies are preventing an outlook at this time. it's not to hard to say a specific model shows a certain type of threat based on instability, shear etc. 

I'm not locking this in, just something I am watching like we all watch systems here. GFS has been showing a big system around that time as well.

 

yes there outlooks for heavy snow issued at long range here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

 

shows hazardous weather outlooks for 3-7 days and 8-14 days

[Jaycee]

I don't think I've ever seen a day 8, where they specifically mention tornadic potential. That's crazy. It looks monstrous on models, but obviously the shifts are going to happen.

[gimmesnow]

What does everyone think of odds of this being snow or rain? I think 30 percent snow, 70 percent rain.

[gosaints]

What does everyone think of odds of this being snow or rain? I think 30 percent snow, 70 percent rain.

Where?

[Money]

gosaints, what's the temp departures looking like right now?

[gosaints]

gosaints, what's the temp departures looking like right now?

Ill.check when I get home.. I am sure we are below normal. La crosse only +1 I saw on news this morning roch behind them I am sure. Probably -2.5 or so.

[jaster220]

thus the reason why they didn't issue any outlook areas. all they said is that the current run of EURO shows a good setup and model inconsistencies are preventing an outlook at this time. it's not to hard to say a specific model shows a certain type of threat based on instability, shear etc. 

I'm not locking this in, just something I am watching like we all watch systems here. GFS has been showing a big system around that time as well.

 

yes there outlooks for heavy snow issued at long range here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

 

shows hazardous weather outlooks for 3-7 days and 8-14 days

I was aware of those outlooks. I'd like to see them detail (d8) bliz hazards and have it verify. Lucky if you actually end up with a legit storm here from that range. Thats the very reason starting thread s beyond d5 is likely to disappoint.

[Minny_Weather]

I don't think I've ever seen a day 8, where they specifically mention tornadic potential. That's crazy. It looks monstrous on models, but obviously the shifts are going to happen.

Only thing that 18Z GFS says needs to happen is have the cap be broken and slightly higher CAPE values for a nice severe outbreak. Shear is there, EHI is there. Nice dry line too with ~55* dew points. Too bad I won't be here for that, but still definitely something to watch out for.

 

Edit: Definitely just talking about Lincoln. Even juicier chances with fewer inhibiting factors exist to our West.

[Grizzcoat]

RST  is -3.9F through the 16th --- LSE is -1.1F

[NEJeremy]

Only thing that 18Z GFS says needs to happen is have the cap be broken and slightly higher CAPE values for a nice severe outbreak. Shear is there, EHI is there. Nice dry line too with ~55* dew points. Too bad I won't be here for that, but still definitely something to watch out for.

 

Edit: Definitely just talking about Lincoln. Even juicier chances with fewer inhibiting factors exist to our West.

0Z looking even better across the plains. We'll see what the Euro shows

[Tom]

With official Spring around the corner, it may be time to put this thread to rest...

 

Having said that, I started a Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread....

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1535-2017-springsummer-severe-wx-thread/

[Minny_Weather]

With official Spring around the corner, it may be time to put this thread to rest...

 

Having said that, I started a Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread....

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1535-2017-springsummer-severe-wx-thread/

Good idea. Think Nebraska and points South are pretty much done for snow this season.

[Money]

Euro looking colder for that Sat system. Much stronger HP to the north:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017031812/168/sfcmslp.conus.png

[gimmesnow]

Cold enough for snow in se Wisconsin? Normally I'm ready for spring now but we got ripped off this winter. I feel I'm being greedy though, that last snow system we got was amazing for boarding

[Niko]

Cold air not done yet. Next week gets cold again.

[Niko]

12z Euro snowfall is planning something........

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/2dv7k2v.png

[Niko]

That map better not verify.