December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[mountainman]

nice to see you guys score down there even tho it's a little.  Better when it's colder than forecast too.  Shows how cold it gets and forecasts fail.  Love it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Actually in EUG right now, absolutely pouring.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at cams it is starting to snow at Zigzag at 1400' on the way to Mt. Hood.

[TT-SEA]

[Abbotsford_wx]

Waiting for daylight.

 

And it is really odd... the blooms are so nice here too.   Some better looking than in the summer.  

 

Roses are also blooming up here. The lawn at my work is 6" high with little yellow flowers growing in it. I think the contract for mowing it ended at the end of October. Normally the grass doesn't really grow after that.

[Timmy]

Looking at cams it is starting to snow at Zigzag at 1400' on the way to Mt. Hood.

D**n orographics. 36 and light rain here at 1500'

[TT-SEA]

WRF shows a fair amount of sunshine today for Olympia northward.   

 

Just when we finally want precip... now we get sun!  

[FroYoBro]

D**n orographics. 36 and light rain here at 1500'

 

You should do well tomorrow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

D**n orographics. 36 and light rain here at 1500'

 

Yeah looking at the WRF you get buried tomorrow. 

[Abbotsford_wx]

WRF shows a fair amount of sunshine today for Olympia northward.   

 

Just when we finally want precip... now we get sun!  

 

This is actually perfect. We should drop below freezing this evening which means any snow we get tomorrow morning will stick.

[Timmy]

Yeah looking at the WRF you get buried tomorrow.

Just one day away!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WRF looks good for PDX tomorrow. 2-4" for most of Clark County. 1-3" much of the metro area. Around T-2" Albany to Wilsonville.

[MossMan]

This is actually perfect. We should drop below freezing this evening which means any snow we get tomorrow morning will stick.

That is what I was thinking as well...let's get those temps down! Speaking of which...down to 37.1 now. Was 43 when I woke up at 3am.

[snow_wizard]

The 4km WRF looks really good for many people. It indicates most of King County gets a good amount tomorrow night.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like it's time to say goodbye to the roses.

[MossMan]

The 4km WRF looks really good for many people. It indicates most of King County gets a good amount tomorrow night.

I hate to be one of those people...but what about northern Snohomish Co? Could you post a map?

[TT-SEA]

Looks like it's time to say goodbye to the roses.

 

 

Its only December 4th... very early this year to say goodbye!   

[snow_wizard]

I hate to be one of those people...but what about northern Snohomish Co? Could you post a map?

Looks great. I will try to post that in a bit.

[Deweydog]

GFS ALERT!!!

[MossMan]

Looks great. I will try to post that in a bit.

Thanks!

[MossMan]

GFS ALERT!!!

Widespread 70's 10 days away?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just one day away!

 

Right now I'd say you'll get about 6" 

[TT-SEA]

Distinct clearing line over Seattle right now... and the north edge of the c-zone.

 

[stuffradio]

Widespread 70's 10 days away?

Well, Spring IS only 3 months away...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I want tims roses to die a slow painful death.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim could get a lot of snow next weekend. 

[Farmboy]

06z GFS looks great (and more sensible) to me, as far as the pattern progression is concerned.

Weather will do what it wants.  Who says it has to adhere to human reason and intuition?  

[Heavy Snow]

I just woke up and the updated run of the 06z GFS shows an Arctic Blast after Day 10. Let's see what the 12z GFS shows. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120406/276/500h_anom.na.png

[snow_wizard]

Hard to gripe about the WRF.  Looks like the Seattle area could be a huge winner.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Distinct clearing line over Seattle right now... and the north edge of the c-zone.

 

I really like this cam. 

[Sometimesdylan]

28. Probably be the high for today.

 

Looks like the models are strengthening the Yukon high. We're gonna get a see freeze here, been a while since we've had a week or two like this.

[seattleweatherguy]

Hard to gripe about the WRF. Looks like the Seattle area could be a huge winner.

Looks great I hope snow levels drop at least 200 feet from 500 from their winter weather advisory

[Heavy Snow]

Hard to stay snow with 925-950mb temps above freezing. That'd be closer to a graupel or sleet sounding if it's just confined to that layer.

 

Yup, I'm definitely expecting lots of ice for PDX. I'm just hoping we get at least a widespread 2"-3" before the changeover.

[TT-SEA]

Enough snow to start making a snowman...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So is the Canadian kind of like the NAM in overstating precip? Because it shows a ton of precip across nw Oregon tomorrow. 

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 12z GFS shows at least a modified Arctic Blast for the PNW at Day 12. Let's see what the remaining run does, pattern looks majestic.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120412/288/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120412/288/850th_nb.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

28. Probably be the high for today.

 

Looks like the models are strengthening the Yukon high. We're gonna get a see freeze here, been a while since we've had a week or two like this.

 

How much snow did you get going into this?

[TT-SEA]

Looking east... cold air coming in from the north.

 

[stuffradio]

Looking east... cold air coming in from the north.

 

We don't need to see every angle of the city from your cams.

[HighlandExperience]

Hard to gripe about the WRF. Looks like the Seattle area could be a huge winner.

Very nice. Hope the WRF isn't over doing it.