December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

So people are upset that we are going to see a bit of snow before it warms up? lol that's how it works around here, If that upsets you then you should move.

harsh... 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think Jim beat the tar out of him.

 

Yeah he's over in the political banter thread losing his mind over Trump.

[snow_wizard]

So people are upset that we are going to see a bit of snow before it warms up? lol that's how it works around here, If that upsets you then you should move.

 

The thing is it might get cold again fairly quickly right afterward again.  Nothing to be unhappy about at all right now.

[BLI snowman]

There just isn't a whole lot of mystery at this point. Mystery drives this place, not atmospheric reality.

Monday and Thursday could both still go either way. Up to 3" of snow seems like a realistic possibility still for either day. Not going to be a major event but that doesn't make it an easy call snoozefest.

[Jesse]

00z looks like it is trending just a bit colder for Monday-Wednesday. Nice to see in the home stretch.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Look closely at this image. A small hole over downtown Portland...

 

 

Swamp part 2?  

[snow_wizard]

Yeah he's over in the political banter thread losing his mind over Trump.

 

He just can't wrap his head around it.

[Bryant]

He just can't wrap his head around it.

Trump should have become president years ago!

[Jesse]

The thing is it might get cold again fairly quickly right afterward again. Nothing to be unhappy about at all right now.

I couldn't agree more. I am super stoked with the pattern over the next two weeks!

[snow_wizard]

Monday and Thursday could both still go either way. Up to 3" of snow seems like a realistic possibility still for either day. Not going to be a major event but that doesn't make it an easy call snoozefest.

 

What I like to call a warning shot.  Pretty common stuff in our great winters.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He just can't wrap his head around it.

 

It makes me laugh. I saw CNN today said Stein is dropping the recount in PA. I think we told Tim that a week ago, but he wouldn't believe it until CNN said so. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The CFS was pretty much cool through mid-February tonight.

[snow_wizard]

Trump should have become president years ago!

 

Who would have thought that was all it would take?

[luvssnow_spokane]

What i like to call a warning shot.  Pretty common stuff in our great winters.

True... but not completely uncommon in our winters that never completely deliver. NOT a prediction just an observation...  I have faith it will deliver in the coming months. NOT a prediction just wishful thinking. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

Begins in.... 13 minutes

 

C'mon cold and snow! Let's see how the 6-10 day period unfolds. It would be amazing to see anything resembling the bitter cold 12z showed. I wouldn't expect it, but who knows right. Yeah.

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0

[snow_wizard]

The CFS was pretty much cool through mid-February tonight.

 

A lot of great runs from that model lately.  The mean of the past 7 days runs shows colder than normal for us Dec - Feb.

[Deweydog]

Monday and Thursday could both still go either way. Up to 3" of snow seems like a realistic possibility still for either day. Not going to be a major event but that doesn't make it an easy call snoozefest.

Not sure I'd go that far about Monday, but the overrunning event does have some wiggle room.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The short warm up late Thursday may not even happen.

[Heavy Snow]

 

00z ECMWF

Begins in.... 13 minutes

 

C'mon cold and snow! Let's see how the 6-10 day period unfolds. It would be amazing to see anything resembling the bitter run 12z showed. I wouldn't expect it, but who knows right. Yeah.

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0

 

 

I might be in the minority here but I have a feeling the upcoming run of the 00z KING EURO will look similar to what it showed in it's 12z run today!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure I'd go that far about Monday, but the overrunning event does have some wiggle room.

For early December a 1 to 3" event works for me

[BLI snowman]

Not sure I'd go that far about Monday, but the overrunning event does have some wiggle room.

I'm speaking more for my backyard than for Portland. I don't expect PDX to see more than a slushy dusting on Monday. Whatever, don't live there.

[snow_wizard]

True... but not completely uncommon in our winters that never completely deliver. NOT a prediction just an observation...  I have faith it will deliver in the coming months. NOT a prediction just wishful thinking. 

 

Context is very important.

 

1. Super Nino to weak Nina transition winter

2. Extremely wet Oct / Nov combo

3. Super torch November after a reasonably cool July - Oct (especially at the 850mb level)

4. Propensity for high heights over the GOA mid June through early Oct

 

And those are just some of the things going for us.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The short warm up late Thursday may not even happen.

I have hope in King Euro that it shows us staying cool(erish)... Fingers crossed but according to many mets on here it will not verify. So I am hesitant

[Weather101]

[Parksvillewx]

Whoa..shows my location getting 12"+..

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The short warm up late Thursday may not even happen.

 

Looking at surface pressure / thickness maps you could be right for the most part.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Context is very important.

 

1. Super Nino to weak Nina transition winter

2. Extremely wet Oct / Nov combo

3. Super torch November after a reasonably cool July - Oct (especially at the 850mb level)

4. Propensity for high heights over the GOA mid June through early Oct

 

And those are just some of the things going for us.

Oh I agree with these and have shared that all they back in mid November... BUT does not mean it truly delivers but at this point all cards are in play and it is quite exciting. Gonna be fun to watch...

[snow_wizard]

Whoa..shows my location getting 12"+..

 

 

 

tmp_7672-wa_snow48.48.0000842945533.gif

 

Holy .  3" for me.  I'll take it!  Best run so far.

[Weather101]

Whoa..shows my location getting 12"+..

 

 

 

tmp_7672-wa_snow48.48.0000842945533.gif

This is beautiful.. But has to be overdone ?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Me sorry

I tried to like this but I used them all up again! Crap!!!

[HighlandExperience]

Looking at surface pressure / thickness maps you could be right for the most part.

 

Oh wow that is the best WRF run since we began tracking this 

[Weather101]

I tried to like this but I used them all up again! Crap!!!

Should have unlimited likes!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looking at surface pressure / thickness maps you could be right for the most part.

Its going to be close.Any more shift to the south of that low and will stay offshore flow.

[Deweydog]

I'm speaking more for my backyard than for Portland. I don't expect PDX to see more than a slushy dusting on Monday. Whatever, don't live there.

I'm talking the valley in general.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Holy s**t.  3" for me.  I'll take it!  Best run so far.

Still really shadowed down here. Honestly this setup traditionally does shadow us in the swamp but I am quite okay with it. At least I am looking at a trace to maybe a few inches. Better than nothing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm talking the valley in general.

He s being so selfish like me....

[luvssnow_spokane]

Should have unlimited likes!!

bonus likes for you!! I really "like" that statement!!!  Lots!!!!

[BLI snowman]

I'm talking the valley in general.

Definitely less than promising south of Portland, nothing unusual there. Again, not quite my area though.

[Skagit Weather]

Another closer in view with additional snow from the convergence zone.

 

[Dave]

Wow.  The forum exploded with activity finally.  It's pretty clear what caused it.