December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Bryant]

My house sits nearly in the center of the no snow zone shown on that map... LOL!! Perrrrrrfect! I do not really care anymore. can't wait for summer...

Back to letting the models dictate your emotions I see!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just got a updated forecast for Puyallup. Light mud with a chance of farts and turds.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Back to letting the models dictate your emotions I see!

It as sarcasm... No.. In fact I am perfectly fine and it is what it is. Peace and God Bless everyone. 

[The Swamp]

Yea and when June comes around you'll piss ad moan and whine that it's not winter yet.

 

Vicious circle you dance in buddy.

 

are you really a WSmet?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis

 

Once again they are forecasting over the next 24 hours for the Kona Low or any cut-off to dissipate. I would welcome that! I have yet to see a model actually show dissipation though. Let's hope so.

 

http://i.imgur.com/ANbqLBu.jpg

[Deweydog]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qFY9xSJNx_U

 

Just replace "cancer" with "a +EPO."

[The Swamp]

Just got a updated forecast for Puyallup. Light mud with a chance of farts and turds.

 

But will it accumulate?

[The Swamp]

00z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis

 

Once again they are forecasting over then next 24 hours for the Kona Low or any cut-off to dissipate. I would welcome that! I have yet to see a model actually show dissipation though. Let's hope so.

 

http://i.imgur.com/ANbqLBu.jpg

Good to see you back this evening.  I am looking forward to your analysis over the next 48-72 hours.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS

Begins in.... 6 minutes

Think snow!!!!

 

Feel free to play along (You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How bout that 0z NAM folks!

[Deweydog]

How bout that 0z NAM folks!

Twists, turns, isobars... It had it all!

[Gradient Keeper]

534dam line into PDX on 00z. 18z had it near Olympia. A tad lower 500mb heights

 

Trough digging just a tad more this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting the GFS seems to be juicing up the post frontal airmass tomorrow evening/night

[Deweydog]

Interesting the GFS seems to be juicing up the post frontal airmass tomorrow evening/night

Your (my) location!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Your (my) location!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

All my comments and analysis now will be Bellingham-centric

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently raining and 45 here at BLI!

[MossMan]

Currently raining and 45 here at BLI!

Same here in northern Snohomish Co!

[Deweydog]

Rain here too. Can only be a good sign...

[MikeInEverett]

This looks like one of those situations where I'm glad I live near Everett. 00z GFS wants to give my area at least 6 inches of snow by Tuesday morning.

[Jbolin]

are you really a WSmet?

Yes I am 

 

Graduated from University of Oklahoma 

[HighlandExperience]

Rain here too. Can only be a good sign...

Probably acidic

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 84 deeper arctic air Gorge east on this run.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120400/gfs_T850_nwus_15.png

[The Swamp]

Yes I am 

 

Graduated from University of Oklahoma 

wow. cool.

[IbrChris]

Yes I am 

 

Graduated from University of Oklahoma 

Someone give this guy a Meteorologist tag.

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah pretty much every run has shown a CZ in Snohomish county giving at least 2 inches. 18z showed 3-4, 00z kicks it up to 6-7.

 

Pretty good bet that wherever the CZ sets up, if it does, will get some fairly good accumulation.

 

Best we can hope for right now.

 

 

Sure hope that sags south a bit. 

[Jbolin]

All rain right now, once these #'s start creeping up towards and surpasses #7 we won't likely see any sea level snow

 

Thicknesses in the 537 to 540 range

 

WIl be watching these parameters ( and others ) closely this time onward tomorrow night

[Jbolin]

Someone give this guy a Meteorologist tag.

I actually don't want one, there are enough brains in this group w/o being added to the mix

[bainbridgekid]

00z keeps convergence going over Snohomish and Northern King County into Tuesday morning.

 

24 hour precip from 4 AM Monday - 4 AM Tuesday gives a decent sized area over 0.5" of QPF.

 

[MossMan]

Sure hope that sags south a bit.

I'm thinking it needs to head north only by 5-10 miles or so.

[IbrChris]

I actually don't want one, there are enough brains in this group w/o being added to the mix

Yeah sometimes I question whether I'm a glutton for punishment when I interact on here...though it's better now than it has been in the past. In the past literally dozens of pages of back-and-forth between members over stupid things was common. There's still some of that but it's not as bad now IMO.

[IbrChris]

All rain right now, once these #'s start creeping up towards and surpasses #7 we won't likely see any sea level snow

 

Thicknesses in the 537 to 540 range

 

WIl be watching these parameters ( and others ) closely this time onward tomorrow night

1300 line is *so* far away still...

 

 

[The Swamp]

00z keeps convergence going over Snohomish and Northern King County into Tuesday morning.

 

24 hour precip from 4 AM Monday - 4 AM Tuesday gives a decent sized area over 0.5" of QPF.

 

gfs_apcpn24_nwus_7.png

 

If you are under the CZ you will be golden.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm thinking it needs to head north only by 5-10 miles or so.

 

Arlington always gets snow.

[bainbridgekid]

Frustrating night for the WRF to be delayed . . .

[HighlandExperience]

Frustrating night for the WRF to be delayed . . .

 

Right. One thing is for sure. Wherever the CZ sets up is going to get a nice dose of snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WRF has initialized!

[Front Ranger]

I nominate Flatiron. Then he can harrass himself to score it.

 

I totally forgot about that! No one ever scored that D**n thing. Very sad.

[Deweydog]

I totally forgot about that! No one ever scored that D**n thing. Very sad.

I heard someone thought you might have won!

[bainbridgekid]

The Canadian hooks the overrunning system back around to the Southwest and brings it in over Seattle on Saturday afternoon, keeping us in offshore flow way longer than the GFS.

 

It's actually a really similar track to the 12/21/08 storm. Way less cold air in place beforehand obviously, but it would certainly help keep areas snow quite a bit longer.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016120400&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=760

[Heavy Snow]

GFS ALERT!