December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Party at Matt's if so!!

 

I'll bring the bugles and RC Cola.

Caffeine free, por favor.

[Front Ranger]

Day 4 Euro 850s. 4 to 6C cooler than GFS.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF OTH-GEG gradient -21 to -23mb. Definite east wind/damaging wind storm material

[Kayla]

Day 4 Euro 850s. 4 to 6C cooler than GFS.

 

get_orig_img.gif

 

Westerlies still break through pretty quick on day 5 though.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Westerlies still break through pretty quick on day 5 though.

 

Yeah the end result on day 5 is about the same as earlier GFS runs... So as predicted by some Euro falls in line with GFS a little. 

 

 

[Heavy Snow]

Oh my goodness! At hour 126, KING EURO is showing heavy moisture over PDX with a temperature of 29 degrees! Possible ice storm if it changes over from snow already.  

[Front Ranger]

Westerlies still break through pretty quick on day 5 though.

 

Sure, but a good 12-18 hours later than GFS. And north of Seattle is still in the -4 to -5C range at day 5.

[luvssnow_spokane]

By day 6 the euro want to trend us cooler again... Similar as previous runs ... I will take it.

 

 

[Kayla]

Sure, but a good 12-18 hours later than GFS. And north of Seattle is still in the -4 to -5C range at day 5.

 

True. Definitely still favors SEA northward.

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z Euro still not showing much of anything for most of Western WA through Tuesday. Maybe an inch in places. In fact, the Euro has no CZ signature at all. That's the difference.

 

I'm hoping that due to it's resolution being higher, the WRF is picking up on a CZ the Euro is missing. Will be fun to track if it does form.

Something to be said to having that low weaker and further off shore on this run....  <_>

[HighlandExperience]

00z Euro still not showing much of anything for most of Western WA through Tuesday. Maybe an inch in places. In fact, the Euro has no CZ signature at all. That's the difference.

 

I'm hoping that due to it's resolution being higher, the WRF is picking up on a CZ the Euro is missing. Will be fun to track if it does form.

 

I was worried the EURO wouldn't pick up on the C-Zone. Hope the WRF is right on that.. It be something nice if we went into this week with a solid 1-2 inches of snow. 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is sligthly colder than the 12z, but still annoyingly dry.  Pretty typical uncertainty with this.  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 7

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120400/168/500h_anom.na.png

[snow_wizard]

By day 6 the euro want to trend us cooler again... Similar as previous runs ... I will take it.

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_7.png

 

It seems the NWS is going for the colder scenario.  They have changed the late week precip to rain or snow for the East Puget Sound lowlands.

[Front Ranger]

00z Euro still not showing much of anything for most of Western WA through Tuesday. Maybe an inch in places. In fact, the Euro has no CZ signature at all. That's the difference.

 

I'm hoping that due to it's resolution being higher, the WRF is picking up on a CZ the Euro is missing. Will be fun to track if it does form.

 

Yeah, it seems to have the little low dropping down the coast on Mon/Tue a little further offshore.

[Dave]

And huge pictures of Bottles of Vodka taking up half a page thread.  

Some of us are quite thirsty.

[Heavy Snow]

The ECMWF is sligthly colder than the 12z, but still annoyingly dry.  Pretty typical uncertainty with this.  

 

You guys get a nice over-running event up there in Puget Sound also.

[Front Ranger]

The ECMWF is sligthly colder than the 12z, but still annoyingly dry.  Pretty typical uncertainty with this.  

 

It's harder to get cold temps than moisture....right???

[Heavy Snow]

It looks like PDX wont lose it's East Wind until Friday morning. Thursday is going to be crazy.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 looking quite similar to the 12z run

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120400/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Arctic air moving southward

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016120400/ecmwf_T850_nwus_9.png

[Kayla]

Euro showing big ZR event at PDX on Thursday...Ughhhh

[Gradient Keeper]

Real eager to see day 9 and see if the arctic trough digs southwest or not

[ShawniganLake]

Down to 38F with light rain here. Hopefully the WRF is handling tomorrow nights precip well.

[ShawniganLake]

Real eager to see day 9 and see if the arctic trough digs southwest or not

Nope

[luvssnow_spokane]

Real eager to see day 9 and see if the arctic trough digs southwest or not

It looks like it wants to dig more SE-ish... Not as good is my guess... we shall see

[Gradient Keeper]

Nope. Arctic air stopped in its tracks. At least on this run.

[BLI snowman]

Euro showing big ZR event at PDX on Thursday...Ughhhh

Looks very snowy from VUO northward.

[Heavy Snow]

 

Nope. Arctic air stopped in its tracks. At least on this run.

 

 

It looks like it's setting up at Day 10 to possibly drop the Arctic air further South.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120400/240/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120400/240/850t.na.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

Day 10 Euro... Gross!!  but more realistic so I feel better than hanging onto fantasy runs.  ... lots of cold air to our north so who knows!

 

Good night! it was fun.

 

 

 

[Kayla]

Looks very snowy from VUO northward.

 

True. I suppose there is still plenty of time for things to shift one way or another. Low really needs to just shift about 200-300 miles south to avoid the ZR down to PDX metro area as well.

[HighlandExperience]

[Heavy Snow]

Someone post the wxbell graphic

 

Just sign up for a free trial.

[HighlandExperience]

Just sign up for a free trial.

Maybe

[Heavy Snow]

Current PDX forecast from Rod Hill. He's not worried of any frozen precipitation for the over-running event.

 

SUNDAY:  Much colder air with afternoon snow levels for snow accumulation near 1,500 feet.  Morning rain, heavy at times will break into showers.  24-hour rainfall will exceed .50 inches. Chilly northwest winds 10-25 mph.  Temperatures will hold steady in the low to mid 40s. 

 

MONDAY:  Likely morning rain or a snow mix with temps in the 30s.  Portland may see only rain, but a snow mix is possible.  Metro hills near 500' and above could see flurries to 4" of snow accumulation. Showers with low snow levels will continue into the afternoon.  Total liquid moistre of .25 inches. 

 

TUESDAY:  Morning showers with a possible snow mix at the lowest elevations. Metro hills may see up to an inch of snow.  Becoming dry with partly cloudy skies late day. 

 

WEDNESDAY:  A HARD FREEZE, early metro temps 25-34 degrees.  East winds will be gusty 10-35 mph.  Windy areas may hold above freezing.  Partly cloud skies with increasing cloud cover during the day. 

 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:  Likely precipitation with gusty east winds.  Watch for freezing rain or sleet in the gorge and other spotty areas where cold air may be trapped.  Portland should hold above 32 degrees and see rain. 

 

THURSDAY:  Watch for possible icy spots early, especially near the gorge.  A rainy day with .50" of rain or more expected.  Gusty east winds continue.  

 

http://www.portlandweather.com/portland-metro-7day

[Gradient Keeper]

It looks like it's setting up at Day 10 to possibly drop the Arctic air further South.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120400/240/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120400/240/850t.na.png

Oh yeah. I would say after day 7 this is the most very real potential I can remember in a very long time.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Current PDX forecast from Rod Hill. He's not worried of any frozen precipitation for the over-running event.Rod hill is a complete idiot. I'm sure he is a alcoholic. He should be locked up.

 

SUNDAY:  Much colder air with afternoon snow levels for snow accumulation near 1,500 feet.  Morning rain, heavy at times will break into showers.  24-hour rainfall will exceed .50 inches. Chilly northwest winds 10-25 mph.  Temperatures will hold steady in the low to mid 40s. 

 

MONDAY:  Likely morning rain or a snow mix with temps in the 30s.  Portland may see only rain, but a snow mix is possible.  Metro hills near 500' and above could see flurries to 4" of snow accumulation. Showers with low snow levels will continue into the afternoon.  Total liquid moistre of .25 inches. 

 

TUESDAY:  Morning showers with a possible snow mix at the lowest elevations. Metro hills may see up to an inch of snow.  Becoming dry with partly cloudy skies late day. 

 

WEDNESDAY:  A HARD FREEZE, early metro temps 25-34 degrees.  East winds will be gusty 10-35 mph.  Windy areas may hold above freezing.  Partly cloud skies with increasing cloud cover during the day. 

 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:  Likely precipitation with gusty east winds.  Watch for freezing rain or sleet in the gorge and other spotty areas where cold air may be trapped.  Portland should hold above 32 degrees and see rain. 

 

THURSDAY:  Watch for possible icy spots early, especially near the gorge.  A rainy day with .50" of rain or more expected.  Gusty east winds continue.  

 

http://www.portlandweather.com/portland-metro-7day

[The Swamp]

It looks like it's setting up at Day 10 to possibly drop the Arctic air further South.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120400/240/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120400/240/850t.na.png

That is going to go east. Montana and east.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Rod hill is one of the worst forecasters in the lower 48. He is just a raging nam reading alcoholic.

[luvssnow_spokane]

That is going to go east. Montana and east.

My thoughts too.. we shall see