Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I feel like people get more excited about modeled weather than real weather here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 North Seattle really gets slammed on the 4KM WRF. Some spots in the czone could easily see 6+ inches. Hope we can get that C-Zone to move south a bit more =) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I feel like people get more excited about modeled weather than real weather here. Don't worry that's still coming too. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goducks09 Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 For the love of God... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_45.png *Epic blizzard in PDX*. Cautiously optimistic...although it is clown range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I feel like people get more excited about modeled weather than real weather here. I feel that way sometimes, too. Then again, until we see something like that run actually happen, it's an apples to oranges comparison. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dairyd Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 It's not cold enough unless the 498 line touches BLI along with 80 kt Fraser outflow. Only if you come out here in that stuff and help me keep the water troughs and tractors thawed out for the livestock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I feel like people get more excited about modeled weather than real weather here.Nothing's going on at the moment. Even tomorrow's snow is still just modeled. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EA_TTD Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I feel like people get more excited about modeled weather than real weather here.Being in Troutdale, I'm meh on tomorrow but really looking forward to Wednesday when the wind ramps up and to the overrunning event on Thursday-Friday. But to see the eye candy that the 00z spat out....even though the likelihood is low, is something else in the land of 43 degree rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 00z WRF keeps the precip going around PDX through tomorrow night now (all snow). 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 North Seattle really gets slammed on the 4KM WRF. Some spots in the czone could easily see 6+ inches. Hope we can get that C-Zone to move south a bit more =)Perfect spot bingo! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Nothing's going on at the moment. Even tomorrow's snow is still just modeled.It just snowed at your house for he first time this season!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 4KM WRF shows a solid 6-12 inches over North King County Monday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 The HRRR doesn't look very impressive for the Portland area tomorrow morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 The Canadian is to be ignored. Are they that bad? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Here is a Forecast Trend I just put together of the past 8 GFS runs. Watch what it does with the low. I think the cold push is going to win out with the low on Wednesday-Thursday. Look at the jet off Cali. Weak, disorganized. Look for future runs to take the system further south perhaps North Bend to Crescent City. MBG http://imgur.com/NXPVrmE 00z was kind of cold. Wow! I like how the timing of the second potential blast has moved ahead. Also, if the trend continues with that offshore low Wednesday-Thursday dropping south we aren't going to moderate much. Fun ahead. It's coming. It's not a matter of IF, rather when. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I feel that way sometimes, too. Then again, until we see something like that run actually happen, it's an apples to oranges comparison. This is true. This place would probably be going pretty nuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 It just snowed at your house for he first time this season!!!!!!!It stopped. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EA_TTD Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 PDX AFD Temperatures are coolingrapidly across the area tonight in the wake of a strong cold FRONT,and snow levels are plummeting fast. We have received reports oflight accumulating snow this evening at elevations as low as 600feet, and a few reports of snow mixed with rain at around 300 feet.The showers tonight will be occasional and infrequent. Clearingbetween the showers will allow temperatures to cool even morequickly, and prime the atmosphere for snow with the next FRONT.The forecast confidence of low elevation snow early Monday morninghas increased. There is still uncertainty of whether road surfaceswill cool enough for accumulating snow at elevations below 300 feet,but there is a good chance that some areas near the river and valleyfloor will have accumulating snow when the main precipitation bandmoves through. Unfortunately, the timing of this for the WillametteValley and the I-5 Corridor is right during the morning commute. Anyfalling snow, whether it sticks or not during the morning commutewill likely have noticeable traffic impacts and have removed theelevation limitation from the Portland and Vancouver Metro areawinter weather advisory.Nam bufr soundings show potential for snow in the Salem area duringthe morning commute as well, and have issued a winter weatheradvisory for the central Willamette Valley. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Light snow! Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mountainman Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 looks like a powerful CZ will set up for parts of Washington. The usual areas. Lucky for those of u! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 What if it's still a matter of if? When will we know it's a matter of when? When did they know it was a matter of when not if in 1950? 1862? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 55% of the 12z GFS ensemble members showed an Arctic Blast at one point in their run. I bet the number will be closer to 75% now for the 00z GFS ensembles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Looks like another slow night in here..... NOT!!! Omg freaking freeztastic!!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 That is a helluva CZ. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 North Seattle really gets slammed on the 4KM WRF. Some spots in the czone could easily see 6+ inches. Hope we can get that C-Zone to move south a bit more =) Ugh, the models have not been friendly to Victoria for tomorrow's event. That said the way things have trended for Thursday would be nothing short of amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 That is a helluva CZ. Weren't people making comparisons to Nov 2006 the other day? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Weren't people making comparisons to Nov 2006 the other day?It's my baby! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold front Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Forks dropped to 33, another good sign Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 00z WRF keeps the precip going around PDX through tomorrow night now (all snow).Good to hear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Only if you come out here in that stuff and help me keep the water troughs and tractors thawed out for the livestockYeah it wasn't fun last January in Idaho trying to thaw my windshield wiper fluid when it got down to -17 F. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 As far as the short term Mon/Tue snow goes...the hi-res models are varying wildly on who will get what amount of snow. It's so hard to predict lowland snowfall in the PNW. Wouldn't read much into any one model run. But, it does look like most folks on here will get some snow and there's a good chance some will see significant amounts (3"+). That's pretty cool. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Going to take a break, be back in an hour or so to talk about KING EURO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Good to hear.Almost seems to hint at a little burst of precip associated with the Arctic "front." Or it could just be a coincidence... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 PDX AFD Temperatures are coolingrapidly across the area tonight in the wake of a strong cold FRONT,and snow levels are plummeting fast. We have received reports oflight accumulating snow this evening at elevations as low as 600feet, and a few reports of snow mixed with rain at around 300 feet.The showers tonight will be occasional and infrequent. Clearingbetween the showers will allow temperatures to cool even morequickly, and prime the atmosphere for snow with the next FRONT. The forecast confidence of low elevation snow early Monday morninghas increased. There is still uncertainty of whether road surfaceswill cool enough for accumulating snow at elevations below 300 feet,but there is a good chance that some areas near the river and valleyfloor will have accumulating snow when the main precipitation bandmoves through. Unfortunately, the timing of this for the WillametteValley and the I-5 Corridor is right during the morning commute. Anyfalling snow, whether it sticks or not during the morning commutewill likely have noticeable traffic impacts and have removed theelevation limitation from the Portland and Vancouver Metro areawinter weather advisory. Nam bufr soundings show potential for snow in the Salem area duringthe morning commute as well, and have issued a winter weatheradvisory for the central Willamette Valley. Interesting. They actually sound pretty confident of accumulating snow down around PDX now. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Ugh, the models have not been friendly to Victoria for tomorrow's event. That said the way things have trended for Thursday would be nothing short of amazing.Really sad WRF run for whatcom county, especially when compared to this mornings run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Interesting. They actually sound pretty confident of accumulating snow down around PDX now. Kiss of death. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 32 at EUG Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhijr Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 King Euro says... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 32 at EUG So the south wind will actually cool us down! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Almost seems to hint at a little burst of precip associated with the Arctic "front." Or it could just be a coincidence... I was thinking the same thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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