December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

12z WRF shows limited amounts for the overrunning event on Thursday.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016120512/images_d2/ww_snow72.96.0000.gif

I'm going to trust the EURO on that

[HighlandExperience]

EURO will lead the way

[Heavy Snow]

Not in the swamp.

 

Swamp? I'm not familiar with your microclimates up there.

[Jesse]

Neither of those maps show SW Washington. Everyone needs to talk about my area. Waaaahhhh.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm going to trust the EURO on that

I think coverage will be solid from Olympia north at least. Hood canal will get slammed hard.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

Rain and 37 on the heat island  . 

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 12z WRF-GFS is in good agreement with KING EURO. It shows a solid 2"-5" snow for PDX for the over-running event.

 

[stuffradio]

'uuuuuuge flakes and 39F.

[HighlandExperience]

I think coverage will be solid from Olympia north at least. Hood canal will get slammed hard.

 

Ya Hood Canal is a given (You are lucky). I agree, I think Olympia north should get it pretty good later in the week. Hope the ECMWF verifies for tonight's CZ. 

 

Amazing to me the difference between the WRF and ECMWF for tonight. 

[Deweydog]

We were just up in the Hockinson vicinity. Took 139th east up the hill from 182nd. You hit a bunch of snow once you get a little elevation. But the whole area had a nice coating.

Yeah, we're on Risto east of 182nd. I took an official measurement at 11/16 inch. Looks pretty.

[Jesse]

Yeah, we're on Risto east of 182nd. I took an official measurement at 11/16 inch. Looks pretty.

We should have stopped by for brunch.

[Deweydog]

We should have stopped by for brunch.

We just got a Hickory Farms gift box! It would have been perfect!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Swamp? I'm not familiar with your microclimates up there.

Pretty easy. MUD.

[Jesse]

We just got a Hickory Farms gift box! It would have been perfect!

[MossMan]

Pretty easy. MUD.

Just stopped by Puyallup...

[Jesse]

I still feel like there could be something in the works later this afternoon/evening.

[FroYoBro]

Just stopped by Puyallup...

 

Beautiful shot! That's what the ground looks like here. Pretty wet day.

[The Swamp]

Just stopped by Puyallup...

Can you see why it would be difficult to build a snowman?

[catnip]

Can you see why it would be difficult to build a snowman?

 

There is always this:

[Prairiedog]

Drove up Springwater Rd past McIver Park to 1,100ft el.  above Estacada.  Surprised at the lack of snow.  32f and just a dusting.  Snow was sticking on the road, albeit a little slushy.  I'm 14 miles down the road at 315ft.  Back and forth between big fluffy flakes and gloppy snow/rain but temp has dropped to 33 from 36 earlier and back to big flakes right now but no accum here.  Starts to accumulate (light dusting) at 435ft.

[BLI snowman]

I still feel like there could be something in the works later this afternoon/evening.

 

Looks to be focused further south. Maybe one more crack at something around 4-6pm, possibly similar result to what we saw earlier.

[Deweydog]

I still feel like there could be something in the works later this afternoon/evening.

Showers?

[Jesse]

Showers?

Hopefully some snow with that modified boundary.

[luvssnow_spokane]

2008 Memories...

 

Here a few memories from our Dec. 2008 event here in the swamp highlands. This was at the height of it when we had the most snow. Fond Memories... What I loved the most is it stuck around for so long and did not rain on it after it fell. Was literally perfect and super fun. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A report of 6" at 1200' in the Clark county foothills

[BLI snowman]

Hopefully some snow with that modified boundary.

 

It's not much of a boundary. Not exactly December 18, 1990 here.....

[Jesse]

It's not much of a boundary. Not exactly December 18, 1990 here.....

Never said it was. I would be thrilled with another quarter to half inch or so to make things white.

[Perturbed Member]

Ugh, if only that band was a bit further north. I'm still 34 and could easily pick up an inch or two if I had that band. I'm right on the edge of it.

[Jesse]

A report of 6" at 1200' in the Clark county foothills

I can believe it. The road between Hockinson and Livingston Mountain got really dicey starting around 800'. Maybe 2-3" there.

[Deweydog]

Hopefully some snow with that modified boundary.

I don't really think there's much of a boundary, or at least much of a frontogenic focus mechanism.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Can you see why it would be difficult to build a snowman?

BUILD A MAN.

[BLI snowman]

Nice to see the temps staying low, at least. So far sticking to the cold side of model guidance, only 35 here still. South wind seems to have done most of its damage from 6 to 9am.

[Jesse]

I don't really think there's much of a boundary, or at least much of a frontogenic focus mechanism.

A solid sticking snow shower around sunset would sate me.

[Skagit Weather]

Hmmm...What do you know. Made it to 40F here and still hasn't dropped below 34F for the winter. Definitely had a hail shower move through last night, but otherwise its been only wet and not white. Hoping for a dusting and maybe an inch or two from the overrunning event.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Anybody want to mention Whatcom County in their discussions? We've got Vancouver, Vancouver Island, Lower Mainland, Snohomish County south, Portland, Silver Falls all covered... 

Nothing in my neck of the woods.  I looked at the traffic cams about a half hour ago and it looks like north of Ferndale is doing fairly well....

 

I think Yew  St. Hill was getting something earlier this morning (no surprise there)

[Deweydog]

A solid sticking snow shower around sunset would sate me.

I guess it's possible. At this point it would be intensity-dependent.

[HighlandExperience]

There is always this:

Looks like poop.

[Jesse]

Nice to see the temps staying low, at least. So far sticking to the cold side of model guidance, only 35 here still. South wind seems to have done most of its damage from 6 to 9am.

Yup. Probably jinxing it but PDX could have a warning shot at a sub-40 high today.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's not much of a boundary. Not exactly December 18, 1990 here.....

To this day I still have never seen anything like that night here. I remember looking at the thermometer and it reading 8 degrees, wind blowing 40 trees broken and snapped off and drifts everywhere. For those of you that were here for that know how crazy it was.

[Deweydog]

NAM still seems to also like the slower/weaker solution for Thursday.