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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

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MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

Been a emotional day.. First time in 27 years i went and picked a Christmas tree without my woman but me and my son made the best of it and had a good time. Its been a real test as a father dealing wi

jaya
jaya

Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at. With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models

Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.   http://i.imgur.com/fhWgu21.jpg

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Bryant Community Regular

Bryant

Posted
Posted

Lol, you really don't get me. I'm sorry it's been years since I was this active on a forum. I was never rooting for the gfs, just kept throwing it out either. I just wanted people to see a negative trend with a little objectivity, which as it turns out is a fools errand here.

 

But to be honest I would absolutely love for it to verify verbatim, but am not convinced it won't continue to trend toward the gfs as it did slightly tonight.

"Negative trend" is relative. Some people might think 1 run is a negative trend. Others might think the gfs is out to lunch all together and discount it regardless of how many bad runs it spits out.

 

Trying to bring people back down to earth isn't going to result in a pat on the back, and you seemed surprised earlier when you didn't get one

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

There are a handful of fairly objective folks on here.

Have to admit I have a soft spot for Dewey.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

There are a handful of fairly objective folks on here.

 

I think I'm one of them tonight.  An overwhelming majority of the models / tools point to this working out.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted

I feel as though if we all sat around a campfire and BS'd, that a lot of people's personalities would vary from their online persona. You however, I believe would still crack jokes and be a smart a** :)

I'm a big believer that you can have a serious hobby sans taking things too seriously.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Day 10 is insane. January 1969/2011 redux???

Coast to coast icebox across North America, and another huge swath of bitter air in Eurasia. Impressive stuff.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

All is well with the world now thanks to the King Euro.

 

 

Let's all bow to the King!  It shows I will have 6 or so inches of snow on the ground by late next week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

I'm a big believer that you can have a serious hobby sans taking things too seriously.

BBQ at my place next summer!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Coast to coast icebox across North America, and another huge swath of bitter air in Eurasia. Impressive stuff.

 

Maybe the solar aspect is starting to kick in.  The last cycle was small and we are in a very quiet period now.  If that's what's going on I'm all in for some fun times coming.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

D8-13 GEFS mean. :lol:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FFC61034-0D6B-4BE3-96E5-4CC86DB019EB_zpssziadozp.png

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

D8-13 GEFS mean. :lol:

 

 

Like Jan 1963 only shifted a tad west.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

I think I'm one of them tonight. An overwhelming majority of the models / tools point to this working out.

I think people are missing the bigger picture. We look to finally be getting cold in January and it is a pattern that has potential to deliver snow/stick around for a bit. Details aside that is reason for celebration at this point.

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Timmy Mentor

Timmy

Posted
Posted

"Negative trend" is relative. Some people might think 1 run is a negative trend. Others might think the gfs is out to lunch all together and discount it regardless of how many bad runs it spits out.

Trying to bring people back down to earth isn't going to result in a pat on the back, and you seemed surprised earlier when you didn't get one

My last response to you for the evening. 1 of anything cannot be a trend. 3+ can start to be called a trend. And I don't need cyber pats on the back to validate either.
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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

Posted
Posted

Day 11-12 heights should build over central/southeast US... could be incredible Days 11-15. This run gives western OR widespread 3-5" of snow. That will make it way colder. Bump those low teens down to single digits or so. EPS is going to be phenomenal again. I am confident the GFS is going to come towards the Euro very quickly, but not sure that's with 6z, or 00z tomorrow night.

 

Fun times ahead!

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

It's going to be an ARCTIC TUNDRA

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Can Tim pet your sheep?

If they survive the BLIZZARD

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Like Jan 1963 only shifted a tad west.

D8-13 CMC ensemble mean. :lol:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1D455D8D-BE50-4A36-BFBF-87FA50F87C7B_zpsj365c07c.png

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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Timmy Mentor

Timmy

Posted
Posted

That's what he said.

see, I've always thought like I thought like you, but in reality there is only room for one Dewey here. But just when I think I got you pegged, you pull a "that's what he said" when I would have gone with a "she". And you get +10 points in my book for that.
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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Looks to slide east... ;)

Raise you a D8-13 12z EPS mean. ;)

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2ACF678B-FFE0-4A4E-8966-6D0BB686A31A_zpsoxsb8ger.png

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Bottom line, strong ensemble agreement on the pattern progression. I'm seeing people focusing too much on individual OP runs in the clown range.

 

Just my opinion though.

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