Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Portland NWS doubling down on the power of positive thinking. It's never failed them before. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Still just 32 here. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Good point, Mountains doing great, been a little colder so better than the last few winters. I think expectations were really high based on the block. Such a waste of block that we may not see again for many years if not longer...Or it could come back later this month and Matt would look like a genius with his late January thing winning out over my early January thing. Impossible to tell. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I expect it to get up to about 37 to 40 today in many locations.That's not terrible. Better than being 45 when the front arrives. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Portland NWS doubling down on the power of positive thinking. It's never failed them before. Then there is this for what its worth... http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_12z.jpg Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Still just 32 here.Don't worry you will get snow. You always do ! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Or it could come back later this month and Matt would look like a genius with his late January thing winning out over my early January thing. Impossible to tell.Although, the first half of the month isn't looking like the +PNA fest that accompanied that prediction. Probably as good as any model past day 4, though! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 The models have been moistening up tomorrow's "event" down here over the last 36 hours, it is a small but noticeable trend. Perhaps a small peace offering for going to heck in the midrange. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Holy CRAP! 12z WRF Sounding70kt Wind Barbs! http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2016123112/images_d2/kpdx.99.0000.snd.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Holy CRAP! 12z WRF Sounding70kt Wind Barbs! http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2016123112/images_d2/kpdx.99.0000.snd.gifYeah, Portland will be cold and dry! Get your chap stick ready. D**n! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Then there is this for what its worth... http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_12z.jpgThe only thing I use that model for is to measure the engine revs in my Camry. 3 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I have a good feeling that us Portland peeps will be happy by next weekend. That gorge is going to help us tremendously. It may not be the historic cold that the models were once showing, but I think we will see good amounts of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 12z ensembles are interesting. A good bunch of members that warm us up much more quickly next week, but also a handful that extend the cold. The mean still stays well below average throughout the run. At least it appears we are still not looking at any torchy periods. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Any word on the 12z GEM? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Or it could come back later this month and Matt would look like a genius with his late January thing winning out over my early January thing. Impossible to tell.I still like very late January/early February at this point, although I definitely thought this round of meridional stuff would be more +PNAish. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I can't find any model giving the Willamette Valley widespread accumulations of 1-2" as the NWS is forecasting... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Any word on the 12z GEM?Wednesday is worth watching. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Holy CRAP! 12z WRF Sounding70kt Wind Barbs! http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2016123112/images_d2/kpdx.99.0000.snd.gifThat's going to entrench the low level cold over PDX Metro. Best case scenario a midweek system lifts up north giving us snow but then heads East pulling colder air in behind it cooling the upper levels of the atmosphere resulting in more snow as systems drop in from the NW. This is going to turn out fine for most of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I still like very late January/early February at this point, although I definitely thought this round of meridional stuff would be more +PNAish.Considering there were indications a week or so ago that the upcoming pattern could have gone that way for us, I suppose we could be really crazy and view anything we get next week as a blessing/bonus. Side effects may include happiness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 23 for a low this morning. Probably colder than PDX is going to get with this "arctic blast." Is that a forecast or a troll I hear? Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I can't find any model giving the Willamette Valley widespread accumulations of 1-2" as the NWS is forecasting...National Wishcasting Service. At least in Portland. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Is that a forecast or a troll I hear? They have a shot to beat it Tuesday morning. I'm going with an optimistic low of 19 at PDX. That would equal 2007. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Considering there were indications a week or so ago that the upcoming pattern could have gone that way for us, I suppose we could be really crazy and view anything we get next week as a blessing/bonus. Side effects may include happiness.People are caught up in the context of the latest runs, not the runs themselves. Understandable, and the unfavorable shift may not be done, but things look very interesting for next week. I'll take it. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Is that a forecast or a troll I hear?He is probably right. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I still like very late January/early February at this point, although I definitely thought this round of meridional stuff would be more +PNAish.Regardless of what happens down the road, the overriding theme seems to be persistent below normal weather, with -PNA dominating. 1948-49 and 1961-62 refuse to leave the table. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I can't find any model giving the Willamette Valley widespread accumulations of 1-2" as the NWS is forecasting...That's called the Weagle! Blind faith and assumptions! Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 What does the Euro snow map look like for the whole run? There should be an overrunning event for the Seattle area I would think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 He is probably right. PDX has a funny way of underachieving. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I trust everyone has calmed down since last night. Snowfall maps still show a big snow event for Seattle in the 8 to 10 period and tonight looks very interesting. The trend has been to actually strengthen the low a little bit since yesterday's runs. Pretty nice to go into this knowing the Seattle area will have snow. The question is how much. Still potential for unexpected convergence zones and we've already seen a trend toward keeping moisture around longer than originally shown. 1972 has been added to the analog list which is quite interesting because that January featured a bunch of minor cold snaps with bits of snow alternating with brief mild periods and then ultimately a big dump. To this day the January 1972 snowstorm was probably my favorite of all time that I can remember. As long as the Aleutian / GOA block is in play we are in business...there might just be periods where the downstream pattern kicks out over the ocean a bit too much. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 PDX has a funny way of underachieving.24 with strong east winds sounds chilly to me. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I really can't believe that the Portland NWS issued a WWA for widespread 1 to 2 inches. At this point they just seem like a bunch of weenies praying for snow every event. It seems kind of irresponsible for the general public. People will be all mad that the ground is bare. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 National Wishcasting Service. At least in Portland.I think the Seattle NWS is going to be way more accurate. That looks a little extreme for Portland... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 People are caught up in the context of the latest runs, not the runs themselves. Understandable, and the unfavorable shift may not be done, but things look very interesting for next week. I'll take it.I'm taking solace in the fact that there have been a smattering of runs over the last 4-5 days that have warned us things could go this way. It's not like it's a completely new development. I would like to see the trends stabilize now though. Ensembles give me hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 He is probably right. Even the warmest run (12z GFS) gets PDX down to 18º next week. Bold (troll) forecast based off of the current guidance at this time. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I wouldn't be surprised to see PDX pull off an unexpectedly mild midnight high Monday. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Regardless of what happens down the road, the overriding theme seems to be persistent below normal weather, with -PNA dominating. 1948-49 and 1961-62 refuse to leave the table. People should take notice I'm not melting down over this. If all was lost you all know what I would be like. Interesting to note the ECMWF ensemble last night showed the brief mild period, but it snapped right back to a very nice pattern again afterward. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I really can't believe that the Portland NWS issued a WWA for widespread 1 to 2 inches. At this point they just seem like a bunch of weenies praying for snow every event. It seems kind of irresponsible for the general public. People will be all mad that the ground is bare. They actually did ok with the snow you had a couple of weeks ago. There was doubt then also. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Even the warmest run (12z GFS) gets PDX down to 18º next week. Bold (troll) forecast based off of the current guidance at this time.PDX will have to decouple well to get into the teens with the more modified air mass. Looks unlikely. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I still think there is underestimation of the coming cold going on. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 People should take notice I'm not melting down over this. If all was lost you all know what I would be like. Interesting to note the ECMWF ensemble last night showed the brief mild period, but it snapped right back to a very nice pattern again afterward.Jim I give you props to always holding on to all hope until the ship is already underwater. Kudos to you and hope you're right. I am just struggling with how to deal with the 20foot wide whole in this ship we are riding. If the band keeps playing it will at least keep the passengers calm. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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