December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[whitechristmas]

Local PDX TV met just said T-1" for PDX tomorrow night, cold week (didn't mention east wind), snow chance Friday with colder temps behind that. Still sounds good? Or didn't he get the EURO memo??

[Deweydog]

Yep, I have a suspicion that the Thursday action modeled on the 00z Euro will end up around Campbell River by that point. Kinda feels like we're back to square one with finding any locked in short term model consensus (although the 00z runs were actually in solid agreement).

Looks like this is the biggest takeaway. None of the runs were horrible tonight until you put them in the larger context.

[Heavy Snow]

I still believe it can snow somewhere... But counting on a 5, 7 and 10 day out model run is just silly. It is fun but not even close to reality or verifying. This weekends event looks barely marginal up here now and beyond that is just a huge guess. SO people can believe it. I don't... I will be positive when it becomes real or enters in the likely range of at least 24 to 36 hours. Until then ... I lean toward climo and moderation.

Okay.

[James Jones]

As long as we have a colder day than 33/12 at OLM...I'm golden.

I prefer the 31/13 from last winter.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This just in! The GFS goes rouge on model rider...

 

 

[MossMan]

Watch the 6z reverts right back to the afternoon solutions! ☃

[luvssnow_spokane]

Watch the 6z reverts right back to the afternoon solutions! ☃

Be great... I predict it will fall in line with tonights GFS run and the Euro. There is some evidence that this will continue for a bit. BUT not a winter cancel just much moderation and more borderline stuff ... NO more epic 1950 BS

[stuffradio]

Can't I go to a decent party without this place falling apart? I leave for a few hours and come back to 8 reports from several different people. I'll have to sort through them soon, it's almost bed time.

[Deweydog]

By the way, I'll take the fall for tonight's model meltdown. I got a new phone.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Can't I go to a decent party without this place falling apart? I leave for a few hours and come back to 8 reports from several different people. I'll have to sort through them soon, it's almost bed time.

Summary.... Models got significantly warmer for next week... this weekend looking subpar but not horrid but many models just showing snow above 500ft in the puget sound on Sunday. Arctic push is also weaker and slower this weekend. SO over all we took about 5 steps backward. Vaporware, fantasyland, meaningless, crap long range looks good. Go figure. Not like we have not seen this before a zillion times

[Bryant]

Can't I go to a decent party without this place falling apart? I leave for a few hours and come back to 8 reports from several different people. I'll have to sort through them soon, it's almost bed time.

Moderation? This forum doesn't know moderation

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO ensembles running...

[luvssnow_spokane]

By the way, I'll take the fall for tonight's model meltdown. I got a new phone.

I washed my car today. I feel much better now.

[MossMan]

By the way, I'll take the fall for tonight's model meltdown. I got a new phone.

Damnit Matt

[SilverFallsAndrew]

By the way, I'll take the fall for tonight's model meltdown. I got a new phone.

 

That Galaxy 7 note?

 

http://static.boredpanda.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/funny-reaction-to-samsung-galaxy-note-82.jpg

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

06z nam will lead the way.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like this is the biggest takeaway. None of the runs were horrible tonight until you put them in the larger context.

 

Yeah, GEM was pretty close to being outright poopy, but it's more the devolving trend with the block that gives some legit cause for concern.  Our safety net with this is quickly fading.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah, GEM was pretty close to being outright poopy, but it's more the devolving trend with the block that gives some legit cause for concern.  Our safety net with this is quickly fading.

Well put and exactly right.... It is on the downward spiral.. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

06z nam will lead the way.

It will follow. Almost guaranteed.

[MossMan]

Well put and exactly right.... It is on the downward spiral..

We're all doomed.

[luvssnow_spokane]

We're all doomed.

WOW! dramatic!!  No not doomed just moderated.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, GEM was pretty close to being outright poopy, but it's more the devolving trend with the block that gives some legit cause for concern. Our safety net with this is quickly fading.

Pretty amazing to have essentially all the major models pick up on such a significant synoptic issue almost simultaneously. Pretty fascinating in a f*cked up way.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pretty amazing to have essentially all the major models pick up on such a significant synoptic issue almost simultaneously. Pretty fascinating in a f*cked up way.

All in 6hrs. It is amazing for sure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty amazing to have essentially all the major models pick up on such a significant synoptic issue almost simultaneously. Pretty fascinating in a f*cked up way.

 

Basically the theory is there really was no data on this shortwave coming down tomorrow night until this evening, given the source region, once the models picked up the data on it they initialized it correctly and basically it screwed us. 

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty amazing to have essentially all the major models pick up on such a significant synoptic issue almost simultaneously. Pretty fascinating in a f*cked up way.

 

I'm still reeling from this mind f*ck.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

27F here. The arctic front may be ahead of schedule.

 

Currently sitting at 35F here, but 100 feet down the hill and it's 29F. Your area seems to be a prime spot for radiation cooling.

[luvssnow_spokane]

All in 6hrs. It is amazing for sure.

The sad thing this is a very common outcome here. Seems like it is the norm. Sad but true. There is a likelihood that this will only get worse but we shall see.

[MossMan]

Good news!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

06 nam a little warmer. But may also just be slower.

[stuffradio]

I was being sarcastic about my comment btw, it's my job to go through reports and moderate.

Phil, I'm actually interested in learning about the conduit you're talking about so I can learn about those processes. Do you have a link that provides in formation on it?

[BLI snowman]

Euro ensembles fully support the operationals.

[Perturbed Member]

Euro ensembles fully support the operationals.

 

Ensemble mean for PDX snow is near 12 in?

[MossMan]

Horrible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[ShawniganLake]

radiant / radiational cooling... 27 here. nothing to do with anything arctic but clear calm skies.

I was totally joking.

[BLI snowman]

Ensemble mean for PDX snow is near 12 in?

 

Less, definitely not as bullish as earlier Euro ensembles, not surprisingly.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

06z nam is just as cold Monday as the 00z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm going to pull a Jim here, but I am 100% serious. I really like the EURO at day 10...

[Skagit Weather]

06 nam a little warmer. But may also just be slower.

 

Warmer and wetter up here for tomorrow. It shows the lowest totals for snow of any run so far, but now shows more precipitation. I think the problem is there's more precipitation, but it's arriving earlier and at the worst time (mid afternoon).

[seattleweatherguy]

Timing issues suck