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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
Posted

I know the euro still looks good for snow, but I have to say I'm really disappointed by how much the models shifted fairly close to the arrival of the cold. I guess this is a good reminder of how far weather models still have to go. Definitely not taking any of these snow totals seriously yet. If the models will still shift this much in just 6 or 12 hours even when they have good run to run consistency and good ensemble support, then all bets are off. Still hoping for a regionwide heavy snow fall but who knows what will happen. 

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MR.SNOWMIZER
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Been a emotional day.. First time in 27 years i went and picked a Christmas tree without my woman but me and my son made the best of it and had a good time. Its been a real test as a father dealing wi

jaya
jaya

Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at. With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models

Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.   http://i.imgur.com/fhWgu21.jpg

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
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The westward trend in the NPAC wavetrain was already ongoing and affecting the solutions since yesterday. A threshold of sorts was just crossed w/ the synoptic pattern due to effects on the timing of the first shortwave, which now is progged to close off far enough west to profoundly affect the downstream pattern (mostly for tropographic reasons).

 

Unless the trend over the NPAC/Arctic reverses, it's looking problematic. There's not much time for a reversal either.

I honestly feel that it may be to late. I do think reversal is already going to be tough. I think it will propagate and get worse from here.

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

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Posted

Excellent Euro run for PDX/most of western OR. Tuesday-Thursday look insane. Tons of snow(major ZR in places), major gorge east wind. Models show it warming too quickly and above(like always with a low to the southwest) and that isn't going to happen. Big time wet bulb cooling) The CAA coming out of the arctic Columbia Basin/Gorge is going to be intense and keep PDX in deep freezer. Fun times. WRF has a big east wind storm too.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016123100/images_d2/slp.114.0000.gif

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Heavy Snow Newbie

Heavy Snow

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Excellent Euro run for PDX/most of western OR. Tuesday-Thursday look insane. Tons of snow(major ZR in places), major gorge east wind. Models show it warming too quickly and above(like always with a low to the southwest) and that isn't going to happen. Big time wet bulb cooling) The CAA coming out of the arctic Columbia Basin/Gorge is going to be intense and keep PDX in deep freezer. Fun times. WRF has a big east wind storm too.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016123100/images_d2/slp.114.0000.gif

Yeah definitely fun times ahead!

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

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Seems like everyone is talking Oregon. Does the Euro show any snow in the Seattle north area. It appears marginal but possible.

Snow in the puget sound?  BUwahahahaha!!!!!!    JK... we have a shot for a few inches.. maybe.. But verdict is still out,.. But maybe not. Anything is possible So who knows. ;)

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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ShawniganLake Grand Master

ShawniganLake

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Seems like everyone is talking Oregon. Does the Euro show any snow in the Seattle north area. It appears marginal but possible.

Probably not. Until the next run. People are just latching onto what looks good for their location in the long run. Now that we've lost what seemed like pretty good model agreement, all bets are off. Especially 7+ days out. Last week, we had a potential snow event shift 150miles in 12hrs on the night of the event.
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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

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I'm really confused. Had the 18z not been seen would everyone be sharting right now? I understand what is being seen is not ballsdeep 1880 stormking followed by top tier arctic but it's a far cry from 2005...

 

I'm trying to understand exactly how what Phil is saying is going to affect how this entire thing unfolds. Wavetrain further west, WPO block instead of EPO block... what are the driving factors to these things being less favorable?

 

I'm not panicking. I'm not on pins and needles.. my newborn baby boy s**t the bathtub twice, pissed on my wife, and in the tub again tonight. Pretty fun stuff!!

Pretty much explains the Euro, GFS, GEM and other model runs tonight.

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

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Probably not. Until the next run. People are just latching onto what looks good for their location in the long run. Now that we've lost what seemed like pretty good model agreement, all bets are off. Especially 7+ days out. Last week, we had a potential snow event shift 150miles in 12hrs on the night of the event.

 

Yep, I have a suspicion that the Thursday action modeled on the 00z Euro will end up around Campbell River by that point. Kinda feels like we're back to square one with finding any locked in short term model consensus (although the 00z runs were actually in solid agreement).

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Guest Sounder

Guest Sounder

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Posted

I'm really confused. Had the 18z not been seen would everyone be sharting right now? I understand what is being seen is not ballsdeep 1880 stormking followed by top tier arctic but it's a far cry from 2005...

 

I'm trying to understand exactly how what Phil is saying is going to affect how this entire thing unfolds. Wavetrain further west, WPO block instead of EPO block... what are the driving factors to these things being less favorable?

 

I'm not panicking. I'm not on pins and needles.. my newborn baby boy s**t the bathtub twice, pissed on my wife, and in the tub again tonight. Pretty fun stuff!!

 

Probably not. The 00z runs are still better for snow chances next week into the weekend than anything we saw yesterday. Unbelievably short memories you all have.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

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As long as Bama puts up 50 tomorrow I'll be fine...Looking at how depressing these models were UW will probably win. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
Posted

What happened to your optimistic attitude?

I still believe it can snow somewhere... But counting on a 5, 7 and 10 day out model run is just silly. It is fun but not even close to reality or verifying.  This weekends event looks barely marginal up here now and beyond that is just a huge guess. SO people can believe it. I don't... I will be positive when it becomes real or enters in the likely range of at least 24 to 36 hours. Until then ... I lean toward climo and moderation. 

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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