December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I blame the Russians for the model runs tonight.

I would lol if I heard the Ruskies hacked the 00Z GFS.

[Timmy]

Looks the same as the 12z.

Hr 72 looks like the gfs...

[FroYoBro]

6 hours sure makes a big difference. 

[TT-SEA]

Dewpoints are higher on Sunday on the 00Z ECMWF.

 

Around 30 in Seattle and in the low 30s south of there... certainly not the unrealistically low dewpoints that the WRF is showing for that day.

[Timmy]

Well, I'm going fork shopping tomorrow cause, well you know.

[Front Ranger]

Well, I'm going fork shopping tomorrow cause, well you know.

 

Still looks really cold and really promising for snow. 

 

You realize that applied to every model run tonight, right?

[TT-SEA]

Well, I'm going fork shopping tomorrow cause, well you know.

 

 

We have some here in a drawer... I can mail you one.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well, the slow moderating event may be beginning... Another classic and reliable outcome. *sigh*

[Front Ranger]

Dewpoints are higher on Sunday on the 00Z ECMWF.

 

Around 30 in Seattle and in the low 30s south of there... certainly not the unrealistically low dewpoints that the WRF is showing for that day.

 

Because it's slower with the shortwave. Duh.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we lost the EURO. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Still looks really cold and really promising for snow.

 

You realize that applied to every model run tonight, right?

Not from what Tim is showing... so you may be incorrect, maybe not...

[HighlandExperience]

Total snow per the 00Z ECMWF. I did not paint this map. It comes from the best model available to us. If you don't want to know what it shows then avert your eyes. The heavier snow south of I-90 is not showing up on this run.

 

Reminds me of the last two events in December. Not expecting much this weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well, the slow moderating event may be beginning... Another classic and reliable outcome. *sigh*

 

I guess that is what makes January 1950 so special.

[Front Ranger]

Not from what Tim is showing... so you may be incorrect, maybe not...

 

Tim showed a 48 hr snow map. Nothing he showed contradicted what I said.

[BLI snowman]

SW Oregon should do really well in the snow department at least, everyone from Eugene south looks good.

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly... the ECMWF actually shows rain showers below 500 feet on Sunday afternoon.  

 

 

[Goducks09]

Ridge squashing/flattening the trough as it rotates...  Very technical terms, I know.

[Front Ranger]

Interestingly... the ECMWF actually shows rain showers below 500 feet on Sunday afternoon.  

 

 

 

Never seen that uber-pixelated map before. Looks uber legit.

[BLI snowman]

Having another winter where models actually feel relevant reminds me of how far they still have to go.

 

They've consistently been really piss-poor with a lot of major details even within a few days.

[TT-SEA]

Never seen that uber-pixelated map before. Looks uber legit.

 

Light precip with temps above freezing... looks like a very light rain / drizzle situation to me for areas below 500 feet.   Maybe even here as well.    I have been very disappointed about precip type in this situation in the past.  

 

This is on Sunday.   We were just talking about it being sunny with dewpoints in the teens.    Big difference.

[Front Ranger]

SW Oregon should do really well in the snow department at least, everyone from Eugene south looks good.

 

With that kind of blocking ridge nearby (guaranteed at this point), someone is going to score big-time.

 

People still put way too much faith in the models. At least for the important details.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Keeping it real yes 00z Euro is trending warmer than many previous runs.... But its not horrible

 

Current Run (00z)

 

 

Previous Run (12z)

 

 

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Light precip with temps above freezing... looks like a very light rain / drizzle to me for areas below 500 feet.   Maybe even here as well.   

 

This is on Sunday.   We were just talking about it being sunny with dewpoints in the teens.    Big difference.

 

Yeah. Has any other model even shown such a scenario? Just seems like more noise.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Strong east wind at hr 120.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Euro just like the GFS... Spring bulbs anyone?  Tim how are the cherry blossoms looking for next week?  

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like this "outbreak" is trending more toward January 2007 type stuff, really given that Dec 2016 verified at -10C at SLE, we could lump it in there...Definitely not looking like Dec 2013...Literally 6 hours and it died...On the eve of the event. I'll echo BLI, the models have a long way to go. 

[chopper 918]

Probably best to find something else to do. Maybe the models will turn around.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is not great through 120 hours.

 

I hate when cold air intrusions end up being much slower than what the models show originally.

 

Jim was just talking about cold air 'blasting' in here on Saturday night.    That is a significantly incorrect statement now based on the ECMWF.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Euro just like the GFS... Spring bulbs anyone?  Tim how are the cherry blossoms looking for next week?  

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_6-1.png

Can you not see how cold the surface still is on that map? Look at the strong offshore flow!!

[TT-SEA]

Yeah. Has any other model even shown such a scenario? Just seems like more noise.

 

 

ECMWF surface maps are never noise when they are slower, warmer, and wetter than the other models.     Its almost always more correct in that case.   

[luvssnow_spokane]

00Z ECMWF is not great through 120 hours.

 

I hate when cold air intrusions end up being much slower than what the models show originally.

 

Jim was just talking about cold air 'blasting' in here on Saturday night.    That is a significantly incorrect statement now based on the ECMWF.   

Jim has and will be wrong on that one. It is just not there I just did not want to say that to him earlier due to having him freak out ... Well, that has already happened and he already left so there it is.

[The Swamp]

Having another winter where models actually feel relevant reminds me of how far they still have to go.

 

They've consistently been really piss-poor with a lot of major details even within a few days.

I think if there was more money to be made in more precise models, we'd have them. Until then we are stuck with government run crapola.

[HighlandExperience]

00Z ECMWF is not great through 120 hours.

 

I hate when cold air intrusions end up being much slower than what the models show originally.

 

Jim was just talking about cold air 'blasting' in here on Saturday night. That is a significantly incorrect statement now based on the ECMWF.

Reminds me of the last two events we had. Very weak and pathetic arrival of so called arctic air.

[Front Ranger]

00Z ECMWF is not great through 120 hours.

 

I hate when cold air intrusions end up being much slower than what the models show originally.

 

Jim was just talking about cold air 'blasting' in here on Saturday night.    That is a significantly incorrect statement now based on the ECMWF.   

 

Yeah, all major models shifted tonight, no denying it. However, earlier runs were definitely showing a much more significant blast of Arctic air than anything seen this year or awhile before. Jim was not out to lunch based on that.

 

A note-for-note repeat of Jan 1950 looking significantly less likely.

 

A major January event? Still very much on the table.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like this "outbreak" is trending more toward January 2007 type stuff, really given that Dec 2016 verified at -10C at SLE, we could lump it in there...Definitely not looking like Dec 2013...Literally 6 hours and it died...On the eve of the event. I'll echo BLI, the models have a long way to go. 

 

Pathetic.

 

I hyped this cold wave WAY too much today to family and friends.   WAY too much.    I jinxed it.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Can you not see how cold the surface still is on that map? Look at the strong offshore flow!!

I do not have access to surface maps. I suspect it will be cool though. 

[TT-SEA]

I do not have access to surface maps. I suspect it will be cool though. 

 

ECMWF surface map shows 35 at SEA that day (120 hours).

[Goducks09]

Well, it's time to shut it down for the night!  Good night all.  Let's hope things take a 180 tomorrow!!!  THINK COLD AND SNOW!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pathetic.

 

I hyped this cold wave WAY too much today to family and friends.   WAY too much.    I jinxed it.  

 

I have never seen an event fall apart like this at the last minute. We are literally 24 hours away from everything started and the models had shown rock solid consistency until next Thursday/Friday...No reason to think it would fall apart. Then it all did in one model run, every single model shifted, even watering down the first "event." Yeah its better than a lot of recent Januaries, just so disappointing compared to what was being shown, a string of 4-5 sub freezing highs just is not going to happen. 

[ShawniganLake]

Another warning shot. We have been fairly and squarely warned.