December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Kayla]

I'm out and about this evening so I am just going off the comments of others. I know I'm a hyprocrite after my speech to Timmy.

 

Gotcha. I was more quoting you for others to see.

[BLI snowman]

Whats wrong with the NAM? Is sub 516 thickness at PDX from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (end of the run) not enough now too??

 

It's noticeably milder than previous runs, still seems to handle the midweek energy somewhat differently than the GEM and GFS but trended that way as well with hanging the trough up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles are not a complete disaster...

 

[TT-SEA]

You know that's not what I was implying but OK.

 

Such extremes with you.

 

What extremes??   I just post interesting details from the models... good and bad.    There is good and bad.    

[EA_TTD]

Actually three bad model runs... sorry you see honestly sharing what the models show as trolling. Peace!

 

Actually three bad model runs... sorry you see honestly sharing what the models show as trolling. Peace!

 

I just honestly shared what the 0Z showed and why.  Is that so hard?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Share some fun trolling ideas?

 

You know the local Met's LOVE the weather drama. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

​Mods need to be mods and get these trolls out of here.  If it's a bad MODEL run, tell us why.  If you can't, shut up and let those who can do so.  0z sucked and apparently has something to do with the shortwave tomorrow not digging SE enough.  Had to go to two other places to get that knowledge.  And this is a forum who has respected, knowledgeable people as part of it.  Instead, I see TTrolls from North Bend, Scrapoose and Silverton Juarez.  Unreal.

 

Tim is probably the best troll here. He uses facts...It really isn't trolling. His saying MOS is showing mid-40s at Seattle next week tees people off...But then he posts the chart showing it... 

[Front Ranger]

Ensembles are not a complete disaster...

 

 

Darn cold first half of January.

 

Not Jan 1950, though. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I blame the Russians for the model runs tonight.

[Dave]

Define "bust"? Not seeing a week straight below freezing and 12"+ for everyone? 

 

I'm rooting as hard as anyone for something epic, but expectations are such a dangerous thing. 

In this case, a bust would be anything other than a region wide snowstorm and severe cold anomalies that last more than a few days.  In exactly what order these things will occur is still quite uncertain and some will probably miss out on all the goods.  For example, Eugene in 2008 had a very nice event, but it wasn't close to top notch like it was elsewhere from Salem on north.

 

The most recent "crappy" GFS run still has enormous potential that will deliver epicness to some or most here in the PNW.

[Jesse]

Ensembles are not a complete disaster...

 

That is pretty decent. I think we are all pretty shell shocked by 2005 and 2011 type busts.

[Front Ranger]

You know the local Met's LOVE the weather drama. 

 

That explains why they issue WSWs at the drop of a hat.

[westcoastexpat]

Canadian model also cuts snow accumulations pretty significantly.

 

I'm more curious to see where the Euro falls at 00Z. I find the GFS and GDPS flip flop wildly, but the Euro can sometimes chart the course, and when it does, I would bet on it being right more often than not.

[Goducks09]

I don't recall the 2005 bust.  That was before the days I would actually follow a weather forum/blog.  What happened with that one?

[Front Ranger]

In this case, a bust would be anything other than a region wide snowstorm and severe cold anomalies that last more than a few days.  In exactly what order these things will occur is still quite uncertain and some will probably miss out on all the goods.  For example, Eugene in 2008 had a very nice event, but it wasn't close to top notch like it was elsewhere from Salem on north.

 

The most recent "crappy" GFS run still has enormous potential that will deliver epicness to some or most here in the PNW.

 

Yes.

[EA_TTD]

Tim is probably the best troll here. He uses facts...It really isn't trolling. His saying MOS is showing mid-40s at Seattle next week tees people off...But then he posts the chart showing it... 

MOS here has shown everything from 40 on Thursday to 26.  It will initialize off of tonights bad 00Z so I'll wait for Euro and EPS guidance in the morning.  If it's bad, then so be it.  But based on the last 5 days, I find that hard to believe.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ridiculousness of the snow totals shown by the 12z EURO and 18z GFS also had people riding high into this evenings 00z runs...

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Tim is probably the best troll here. He uses facts...It really isn't trolling. His saying MOS is showing mid-40s at Seattle next week tees people off...But then he posts the chart showing it... 

And he does it knowing he's at 1000 feet, which is a significant departure from Seattle.

[Kayla]

It's noticeably milder than previous runs, still seems to handle the midweek energy somewhat differently than the GEM and GFS but trended that way as well with hanging the trough up.

 

True. Thicknesses bottom out around 512 verses 508 at their peak. Bit weaker with the cold surge but still quite a bit better looking than the GFS/GEM.

[TT-SEA]

And he does it knowing he's at 1000 feet, which is a significant departure from Seattle.

 

 

Very significant difference.   

[Front Ranger]

Euro is slower with shortwave so far at hour 24.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My skies have finally cleared and the temp is now down to 29...I am thinking 24-26 tonight. 

[Front Ranger]

My skies have finally cleared and the temp is now down to 29...I am thinking 24-26 tonight. 

 

This says a lot.

[ShawniganLake]

I'm in the minority. But I haven't been expecting this to be more memorable than 2005 was up here. Seems like a slightly colder version of 2005 is quite possible for southern Vancouver island. One of the biggest snowstorms in my memory.

[umadbro]

Yeesh. The sensitivity is off the charts! Everyone needs to go to their safe spaces for a few minutes.

[Timmy]

Euro is slower with shortwave so far at hour 24.

Looks similar to the gfs does it not?

[TT-SEA]

Tim is probably the best troll here. He uses facts...It really isn't trolling. His saying MOS is showing mid-40s at Seattle next week tees people off...But then he posts the chart showing it... 

 

Hundreds of very positive posts just this month alone from me.  I have been burned by being too positive.   I am not searching for only bad news.     I just post what looks pertinent and interesting.   I don't post things that I know are wrong.    

[Kayla]

Euro looks good through day 2. Slightly colder at 850mb compared to the 12z.

[Front Ranger]

Looks similar to the gfs does it not?

 

Eh, somewhat. At day 2, ridge and cutoff low are both slightly west of GFS.

[Timmy]

Euro looks to be following gfs...

[Goducks09]

Euro is slower with shortwave so far at hour 24.

 

Slower, but slightly further west.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hundreds of very positive posts just this month alone from me.  I have been burned by being too positive.   I am not searching for only bad news.     I just post what looks pertinent and interesting.   I don't post things that I know are wrong.    

 

This place demands you participate in the circle jerk and avoid any negative model output.    

 

No I agree.  I think you go after Jim a little to much sometimes, but other than that I think you spot on. You and Dewey and BLI Snowman are probably the most spot on with analysis on here. 

[Kayla]

Euro looks to be following gfs...

 

Huh??

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I made a goal about a month ago to catch TT-SEA in number of posts in the next year...That may not be a productive goal...

[Front Ranger]

Euro looks good through day 2. Slightly colder at 850mb compared to the 12z.

 

It's warmer/slower than the 0z GFS.

[Timmy]

Huh??

Slower with the shortwave

[Kayla]

It's warmer/slower than the 0z GFS.

 

Guess I should have clarified. Cooler compared to the 12z.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per the 00Z ECMWF.   I did not paint this map.   It comes from the best model available to us.   If you don't want to know what it shows then avert your eyes.  The heavier snow south of I-90 is not showing up on this run.    

 

[MossMan]

Huh??

He is trolling like others tonight. No significant changes from the 12z yet.

[Kayla]

Slower with the shortwave

 

Looks the same as the 12z.