12/10-12/12 Plains/Midwest/Lakes Weekend Snowstorm

[Tom]

GFS same track through N IL just a bit faster.

[Jaycee]

GFS screws us so hard. And it's been consistent today so I think we're done for.

 

*slow claps for Chicago*

[Tom]

00z GFS...solid for many in S MN/IA/IL/WI/IN/MI...

[GDR]

Looks to be trending a little south each run

[NEJeremy]

GFS screws us so hard. And it's been consistent today so I think we're done for.

 

*slow claps for Chicago*

on to the next storm around the 17th. Although, today the runs got rid of the storm around the 17th for Nebraska. I'm saying we stay under 6" total here in December

[ToastedRavs]

Looks to be trending a little south each run

 

Ever so slightly, I agree. But, also dragging in some warmer air too each run.  That R/S line creeps into S. IA and even somewhat close to Chicago.   Even if some don't switch over, that's going to bring the snow ratios closer to 10:1, a wetter snow cutting back on totals.  UGH

[WBadgersW]

Nice 1-1.5" increase on the GFS. Up to 11"

 

Hopefully things get ironed out tomorrow. Still lots of different scenarios.

[GDR]

Yeah I noticed that also.

[Tom]

Ever so slightly, I agree. But, also dragging in some warmer air too each run.  That R/S line creeps into S. IA and even somewhat close to Chicago. 

Ya, keeping an eye on that track and warm tongue.  Pretty good southerly flow out ahead of the storm.

[Madtown]

W badgers not that I recall

[bud2380]

Canadian through 6am Sunday AM

 

[bud2380]

[Tom]

The 00z GGEM is delivering for IA just as Trump is delivering his "Thank You" speech!

[clintbeed1993]

Is it Spring yet?

[gosaints]

Just noticed that there is a parallel GFS running in 2017.

[Tom]

Just noticed that there is a parallel GFS running in 2017.

Same here, its available on TropicalTidbits...the 12z run from earlier today is loaded...

[gosaints]

Same here, its available on TropicalTidbits...the 12z run from earlier today is loaded...

ya just saw that

[bud2380]

i know off topic, but another major storm showing up on the GFS again this run for the following weekend.  Crazy pattern we have here. 

[Tom]

00z GEFS precip...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120900/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_15.png

[East Dubzz]

Models seemed to trend a little weaker with the runs tonight.

[Money]

Pretty good model consensus on the GFS

[East Dubzz]

Model Diagnostics Discussion

 

 

LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD MIGRATE EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A LOW-AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE 12Z CMC IS STILL WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHILST THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND.

PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW REACHING THE MIDWEST BYMONDAY MORNING~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z CMCCONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGEA SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAYAFTERNOON TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE SUPPORTEDBY A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFICNORTHWEST.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON MONDAY, THECMC/ECMWF/UKMET ARE WELL CLUSTERED OVER INDIANA AND OHIO, AND THENAM AND GFS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND STRONGER WITH THE SURFACELOW.  THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH HAVING AN OVER-AMPLIFIED TROUGHOVER THE MIDWEST, AND THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE MODELCONSENSUS. 

[Tom]

Let's see if the Euro holds, it would be the first victory of the season if it continues with the model consensus.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah the Euro was definitely the first the latch onto this two wave idea. 

[Stormgeek]

Not sure what the GFS was smoking on the 00z. I don't think there is any way MSP gets that ongoing band at the end of the event. As much as I want it, I don't think 6 inches is doable, assuming no other shifts/changes as the energy comes on shore.

[Madtown]

00z has a bunch of ensemble support...

[ToastedRavs]

Grizzcoat won't be happy with the Euro.  It's not his hero tonight! Mine neither, through midnight Sunday.  Hoping reverse psychology works

[Madtown]

Man euro chokes on it.

[East Dubzz]

Though the QPF values weren't quite as exciting tonight, the models are much, much closer than they were 24 hours ago. Will be interesting to see how this develops over the next 24 hours.

[East Dubzz]

Some of the people around me (including me hometown) will be pleased with that run of the NAM, but I think a lot of us are going to want to pretend that run just didn't happen.

[gosaints]

Waffling models. Now the Euro and Nam back to a dominate norther stream?

[Money]

NAM:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016120906/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[WBadgersW]

MKX now calling for 5-9"+. Really nice to see things not trend in the opposite directions for once.

[dubuque473]

DVN has me down for 11" total now...

[Madtown]

5-9 plus! Good safe call I think.

[Tom]

RPM model shifted south with the 1st wave and looks to lay down a solid 3-5" through 6:00am Sunday for N IL.  Looks sorta similar to the NAM as I wonder if the northern stream becomes the dominant one.

Here is LOT's take..

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=24680

[Tom]

I'd imagine NWS offices to issue WSW's after the 12z suite of runs if trends continue.  Excited to see another snowstorm over the weekend.  Although, holiday shoppers are not going to like it as well as retailers.  LOT saying the snow ratios should be around 17:1 with the 1st wave.  Should be some nice fat/fluffy flakes falling outta the sky!

[Tom]

00z GFS Para takes the secondary wave through N IN...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016120900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016120900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png

 

 

Pretty juicy...10:1 snow ratios...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016120900/gfsp_apcpn_us_15.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016120900/gfsp_asnow_us_16.png

[CentralNebWeather]

0z NAM looked good for some in Nebraska for the 2nd wave, now 06z nothing.  Hopefully it comes back at the 12z but not holding my breath.  NWS Hastings even mentioned this during their morning discussion and how they don't trust models that are this changeable so for now dry forecast.  NWS Hastings  "The

12z/18z/00z NAM runs each bring a swath of 1-4" into parts of the

fcst area...but the 06z came in dry."  

[Tom]

RPM model had a pocket of 10"+ for the northern counties of N IL and just south of Madison for the southern tier of counties near the IL border.  Solid 6-10" for N IL/S WI/N IA from what I could tell.