January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Wow I would imagine a morning low of 43 is more typical of late April or early May. A chilly 34 this morning here. 

 

 

A little offshore flow and downslope warming it appears.

[crf450ish]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 384 is promising!

[Timmy Supercell]

It's gotten to the point where every time it snows the temp is always above freezing. lol

 

Maybe Jesse's prayers are working

[stuffradio]

Luvssnow----there are web design jobs in Spokane. Put your house on the market, when it sells, pack up and move & rent a house in Spokane until you can buy a place. Moving isn't rocket science. No need to wait 5+ years. . You'll never stop thanking yourself. Guaranteed snow every winter downtown metro Spokane.

Man, houses are cheap in Spokane.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z GFS is crazy dry for mid-winter.   

 

Not seeing any cold at 10 days out... maybe some fake cold in the usual spots.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012112/gfs_T850a_us_41.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

Luvssnow----there are web design jobs in Spokane. Put your house on the market, when it sells, pack up and move & rent a house in Spokane until you can buy a place. Moving isn't rocket science. No need to wait 5+ years. . You'll never stop thanking yourself. Guaranteed snow every winter downtown metro Spokane.

I will eventually -- still about 2 to 3 years out. It will happen, and I can hardly wait.   I will not need a new job as my company allows me to work remote. I am the marketing director there so it is a great gig and incredible company. It is more of a timing thing with kids and other life stuff right now. We are looking to live in the Manito Park area in south hill.

 

 

 

[MossMan]

The 12Z GFS is crazy dry for mid-winter.

 

Not seeing any cold at 10 days out... maybe some fake cold in the usual spots.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012112/gfs_T850a_us_41.png

Time to change the oil and the blades on the John Deere...looks like I will be mowing soon!

[stuffradio]

Time to change the oil and the blades on the John Deere...looks like I will be mowing soon!

Mowing is therapeutic.

[TT-SEA]

I will eventually -- still about 2 to 3 years out. It will happen, and I can hardly wait.   I will not need a new job as my company allows me to work remote. I am the marketing director there so it is a great gig and incredible company. It is more of a timing thing with kids and other life stuff right now. We are looking to live in the Manito Park area in south hill.

 

Technology is awesome.   If you are in the right field... you can live almost anywhere.  

[MossMan]

I will eventually -- still about 2 to 3 years out. It will happen, and I can hardly wait. I will not need a new job as my company allows me to work remote. I am the marketing director there so it is a great gig and incredible company. It is more of a timing thing with kids and other life stuff right now. We are looking to live in the Manito Park area in south hill.

In ten years we will all be posting from east of the cascades!! Hopefully even Jim! Matt will be the only west side holdout by then since he still has flashbacks of living in OMAK.

[HighlandExperience]

I will eventually -- still about 2 to 3 years out. It will happen, and I can hardly wait.   I will not need a new job as my company allows me to work remote. I am the marketing director there so it is a great gig and incredible company. It is more of a timing thing with kids and other life stuff right now. We are looking to live in the Manito Park area in south hill.

 

 

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South-Hill-Homes-For-Sale-Spokane-WA.jpg

 

You moving to south hill puyallup =)

[TT-SEA]

Time to change the oil and the blades on the John Deere...looks like I will be mowing soon!

 

 

The 12Z Canadian is much better at 240 hours.   

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012112/gem_T850a_us_41.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

You moving to south hill puyallup =)

LOL!!!    -- Moral support for PuyallupJohn.  Actually South hill Spokane (Manito Park Area)

[snow_wizard]

Or maybe climo...

 

I think climo is pretty unlikely given the context.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Check-out some of my first drone footage.

This is a rough edit of my first out-of-the-box flight - (Mavic Pro)

 

Shot in 4k if you want to bump up the HD setting. Looking forward to a few hikes with this bad boy to capture some amazing footage. STAY TUNED!

https://vimeo.com/200485684

[Jesse]

But just remember. Every day forward is another day closer to NEXT winter! And another step closer to our inevitable mortality!

The deepest winter of all.

[snow_wizard]

GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensembles all show strong potential for cold in early February.  It's amazing how many different outcomes the operational models are coming up with.  The two part ridge with that rogue cutoff low are creating an incredibly difficult forecast challenge.  In most situations this season the northern branch has ultimately won the day so I'm going with that idea.

[snow_wizard]

Some people may need a reminder that just because we will be under a huge ridge early next week doesn't mean it's going to be spring like.  On the contrary it will probably be running 6 to 10 degrees below normal.

[Deweydog]

Some people may need a reminder that just because we will be under a huge ridge early next week doesn't mean it's going to be spring like. On the contrary it will probably be running 6 to 10 degrees below normal.

6-10?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Some people may need a reminder that just because we will be under a huge ridge early next week doesn't mean it's going to be spring like.  On the contrary it will probably be running 6 to 10 degrees below normal.

Ambitious!! Bring on the smog... OOPS I mean fog!  YES!!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

Some people may need a reminder that just because we will be under a huge ridge early next week doesn't mean it's going to be spring like.  On the contrary it will probably be running 6 to 10 degrees below normal.

 

Offshore flow and dry air mass might ruin your plans here.   The 00Z ECMWF showed 50s for the lowlands and maybe even low 60s in the foothills early next week... and its far superior to the WRF with inversions.   

 

I know... the models always screw this up and its always foggy and cold in this situation.   But that is not always the case.   Sometimes that happens... sometimes it does not.   A dry air mass and lack of rain this upcoming week will work against a foggy inversion.     

 

Here is early next week from the 00Z ECMWF...

 

 

 

Remember that we are also going to be 6 weeks out from the winter solstice.    This would be much more likely to end up in a foggy inversion a month ago.   

[Deweydog]

Fact is, strong inversion season is quickly waning. Banking on a strong subsidence pattern automatically dictating cold surface anomalies in late January is VERY dangerous.

[crf450ish]

[TT-SEA]

Also, don't discredit the Nine Mile Falls area and Deer Park area. As well as Mead, Chattaroy, Colbert, Medical Lake, Cheney.

 

Hands down, Newman Lake is the sweetest suburb of Spokane.... in my opinion. The guy who built my transmission in my diesel pickup lives in Newman Lake and the area is gorgeous. Sort of reminds me of the Enumclaw area nature wise. Trees galore.

 

Ontop of all of natural greatness over here, traffic isn't an everyday all day nightmare. Taxes aren't as high. The people are more polite. And the city doesn't shut down when it snows 1/64th of an inch of snow. It takes feet of snow for that to happen

 

 

I love the Liberty Lake area.  

[snow_wizard]

Fact is, strong inversion season is quickly waning. Banking on a strong subsidence pattern automatically dictating cold surface anomalies in late January is VERY dangerous.

 

I've seen plenty of good fogversions in late January.  We're only a month past the solctice for goodness sakes.  Amazing how the inversion window keeps shrinking every year on this forum.

[Deweydog]

I've seen plenty of good fogversions in late January. We're only a month past the solctice for goodness sakes. Amazing how the inversion window keeps shrinking every year on this forum.

True. We're idiots. I doubt you get above 35 for several days.

[TT-SEA]

I've seen plenty of good fogversions in late January.  We're only a month past the solctice for goodness sakes.  Amazing how the inversion window keeps shrinking every year on this forum.

 

 

We will be 40 days out from the solstice by early next week.  

 

Mid November to late January is usually the inversion season.    We will be right at the end... waning as Matt said.   

 

Dry air and offshore flow... I would be very skeptical about a region-wide cold spell.    Just trying to be objective.  

[snow_wizard]

True. We're idiots. I doubt you get above 35 for several days.

 

I'm just saying it's an obvious inversion pattern coming up.  Ridge right over us, very high freezing levels, perfect surface pressure gradients.  No way surface temps are going to reflect how warm the atmosphere will be aloft.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting to note some ensemble members show the retrogression / colder weather setting in before this month is even over.  Quite a spread on when / if a cold wave may happen.  I'm sticking with a 60% chance we get a solid cold snap in here by Feb 5 or so.

[Bryant]

Mowing is therapeutic.

Especially if you have a riding mower and a beer

[TT-SEA]

I'm just saying it's an obvious inversion pattern coming up.  Ridge right over us, very high freezing levels, perfect surface pressure gradients.  No way surface temps are going to reflect how warm the atmosphere will be aloft.

 

 

Right... it will be in the 50s in Seattle instead of the mid-60s like the upper levels would dictate.   Might be over 60 out here though. 

[Bryant]

Right... it will be in the 50s in Seattle instead of the mid-60s like the upper levels would dictate. Might be over 60 out here though.

Zzzzzzzz

[Deweydog]

I'm just saying it's an obvious inversion pattern coming up. Ridge right over us, very high freezing levels, perfect surface pressure gradients. No way surface temps are going to reflect how warm the atmosphere will be aloft.

There will obviously be inversions of varying strength with heights well into the 570's and 580's. But the point is there is a higher probability of mixing some of that warmth into the boundary layer in late January compared to a few weeks earlier, especially with a fairly dry low level air mass. Expecting 6-10 degree negative anomalies is kind of irrational.

[TT-SEA]

Always amazed at how it can go from total winter to looking like spring around here so quickly.     Nothing unusual... but it is another reason I like living here.   You wait until the end of April for this in Minnesota.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

There will obviously be inversions of varying strength with heights well into the 570's and 580's. But the point is there is a higher probability of mixing some of that warmth into the boundary layer in late January compared to a few weeks earlier, especially with a fairly dry low level air mass. Expecting 6-10 degree negative anomalies is kind of irrational.

 

We shall see I guess.  Even the WRF has been decently chilly and it's horribly blind to inversions.

[Deweydog]

Always amazed at how it can go from total winter to looking like spring around here so quickly. Nothing unusual... but it is another reason I like living here. You wait until the end of April for this in Minnesota.

 

 

Jim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[snow_wizard]

Zzzzzzzz

 

Indeed.  50s in Seattle ain't gonna happen with the ridge as it is advertised.  I just wonder how inversion season is now declared to end in January.  Honestly the first time I've ever seen that idea floated on here.

[ShawniganLake]

Always amazed at how it can go from total winter to looking like spring around here so quickly. Nothing unusual... but it is another reason I like living here. You wait until the end of April for this in Minnesota.

 

 

First bulb pics of the season. I saw a tree (possibly ornamental plum) starting to bloom when I was in Victoria yesterday.

[Deweydog]

Indeed. 50s in Seattle ain't gonna happen with the ridge as it advertised. I just wonder how inversion season is now declared to end in January. Honestly the first time I've ever seen that idea floated on here.

It's not over, it's waning.

 

Please read carefully, Jim. Your mental well-being may improve as a result.