January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Brennan]

I spent a ton of time researching snowfalls between Blaine, BLI, Sedro Woolley, and Concrete Wa. Still don't know where I want to live. County... foothills.. but where? North county is much colder and drier, south county and into the foothills is juicier but milder...

[IbrChris]

That map is off for the PNW.

 

No way the northern Rockies and Highlands of the PNW have less snow days coverage than some of the places in New England.

 

The entire intermountain west is wrong on that (Sierra Nevada etc.). Plus the size of Maine is exaggerated.. I bet Bastardi made that.

Yeah...I think this was mentioned earlier. However it's pretty accurate for the places where 90% of the population lives.

[IbrChris]

Just the normal winter cancel/mowing/sunny web cams/maps that are apparently inaccurate?/truck washing/lying about location/will there or won't there be a cold inversion...kind of stuff. Completely normal topics for late January!

To be fair my yard could use a mow about 9 months out of the year...with our frost-free period here typically at or above 200 days.

[TT-SEA]

Dog started barking about 30 seconds before this earthquake so I was awake to feel it... sounded like a large truck coming from a distance away and then running into the house.   The entire house really shook for about 2 seconds and then it was over.  

 

[westcoastexpat]

I spent a s**t ton of time researching snowfalls between Blaine, BLI, Sedro Woolley, and Concrete Wa. Still don't know where I want to live. County... foothills.. but where? North county is much colder and drier, south county and into the foothills is juicier but milder...

 

Depends what you want.

 

I'd probably choose Concrete. But it's probably a lot rainier/overcast there?

 

I imagine they get a decent amount of ice there... something to consider.

[Timmy Supercell]

1.00" of snow measured this morning in Klamath Falls. But was supposed to have 3-6" by 10am based on the advisory. It makes the 3rd NWS forecast to come a dollar short this January.

[stuffradio]

Dog started barking about 30 seconds before this earthquake so I was awake to feel it... sounded like a large truck coming from a distance away and then running into the house.   The entire house really shook for about 2 seconds and then it was over.  

 

3.2 is nothing to write home about. That 4.9 or 4.8 the December before this one was something though. I was bouncing on the couch while I was watching tv from the rumbles of the earthquake.

[TT-SEA]

3.2 is nothing to write home about. That 4.9 or 4.8 the December before this one was something though. I was bouncing on the couch while I was watching tv from the rumbles of the earthquake.

 

 

OK... I will not write home about it.    

[Deweydog]

Dog started barking about 30 seconds before this earthquake so I was awake to feel it... sounded like a large truck coming from a distance away and then running into the house. The entire house really shook for about 2 seconds and then it was over.

 

Chances are it was just bulbs emerging from the ground.

[Jesse]

Dog started barking about 30 seconds before this earthquake so I was awake to feel it... sounded like a large truck coming from a distance away and then running into the house. The entire house really shook for about 2 seconds and then it was over.

 

Interesting. Looks like the epicenter was pretty close to your place.

[Timmy]

Chances are it was just bulbs emerging from the ground.

with such furocity that could only take place near Tim's place.

[TT-SEA]

Love this pattern... energy focused on CA with offshore flow in control up here.

 

This is the 3rd day in a row watching bands of rain approach from the south but never get here.   Its been dry since Thursday here with a fairly consistent breeze from the east.  

 

Even when the radar shows rain over my area... its not reaching the ground.  

[Deweydog]

Love this pattern... energy focused on CA with offshore flow in control up here.

 

This is the 3rd day in a row watching bands of rain approach from the south but never get here. Its been dry since Thursday here with a fairly consistent breeze from the east.

 

Even when the radar shows rain over my area... its not reaching the ground.

Could be a dry 4-8 years for King County yuppies!

 

#DJT

[TT-SEA]

Could be a dry 4-8 years for King County yuppies!

 

#DJT

 

 

We are due!   Its been an crazy wet decade.  

[Bryant]

Chances are it was just bulbs emerging from the ground.

More bulbs emerged 43 minutes ago

[Jesse]

More bulbs emerged 43 minutes ago

Mount Si is gonna erupt.

[Deweydog]

More bulbs emerged 43 minutes ago

The damage will render the forum unreadable for some.

[TT-SEA]

I wonder if Kayla is enjoying Bozeman?    Great timing for her to have a snowy January from start to finish.   Live view from Bozeman...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How were the 12z ensembles

[Deweydog]

How were the 12z ensembles

For my location or mine?

[ShawniganLake]

How were the 12z ensembles

Kind of a mess. Looking a little lost after day 6/7.

[ShawniganLake]

[Jesse]

IMG_0469.PNG

Some cold members in there for sure.

[snow_wizard]

I'm getting a bit nervous about our prospects for a cold snap in early Feb. The balance between the two ridges and the way the cutoff low is handled are growing less favorable. Even the inversion potential looks watered down now. Still time for the models to trend more favorably, but disappointing right now.

[Jesse]

I'm getting a bit nervous about our prospects for a cold snap in early Feb. The balance between the two ridges and the way the cutoff low is handled are growing less favorable. Even the inversion potential looks watered down now. Still time for the models to trend more favorably, but disappointing right now.

 

I liked where the 12z Euro was going through about day 8. But yeah after that things derail pretty bad.

 

I am still seeing an inversion profile for most of next week too. The Gorge should help us out down here. Any east winds will be pretty chilly.

[BLI snowman]

Doesn't look too promising for anyone to see major cold any time soon.

 

At least we were the cold anomaly winners of this winter.

[snow_wizard]

At least the 12z GEM was decent. The key is to get that cutoff low as far west as possible and keep it there so the retrogression can be effectively completed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah pretty apparent the goods are behind us on this winter. As it should be I supposed, could still have a minor event here or there.

[Trainwreck]

Tbh, I'm over the cold and snow this winter. I know many of you didn't get snow this winter, or barely any at all, but the novelty has definitely worn off. It's inly mid late January and I'm sure there will be more snow here am looking forward to a little sunny weather in the 40's.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah pretty apparent the goods are behind us on this winter. As it should be I supposed, could still have a minor event here or there.

Still a chance, but I'm afraid I'll be waiting another year. If we have a Nino next winter maybe another year beyond that.

 

I can't leave this shitty climate soon enough.

[Jesse]

Lots of thunder on the coast. Would be a good day too take a trip down there

[MossMan]

Haha so easy to spot the southern posters...actually wanting the "brutal" winter to end...meanwhile up here it has been extremely benign other than being a little cold here and there. No wind, no big snowstorm, no major flooding...been extremely quite other than my whopping 2" of snow on 12/23. A true winter to the north, south, east, and even west of us...borderline comical!! I'm sure we will have non stop rain through June with a little sloppy snow in March.

[snow_wizard]

Haha so easy to spot the southern posters...actually wanting the "brutal" winter to end...meanwhile up here it has been extremely benign other than being a little cold here and there. No wind, no big snowstorm, no major flooding...been extremely quite other than my whopping 2" of snow on 12/23. A true winter to the north, south, east, and even west of us...borderline comical!! I'm sure we will have non stop rain through June with a little sloppy snow in March.

One for the ages for sure. I wouldn't have thought it possible to be screwed so hard in such a cold winter. Just stings like a son of a ***** after the huge multi year torch we just came through.

[Jesse]

One for the ages for sure. I wouldn't have thought it possible to be screwed so hard in such a cold winter. Just stings like a son of a ***** after the huge multi year torch we just came through.

Don't let Andrew get to you guys. He feeds off of you're pain. Winter isn't over

[Bryant]

Don't let Andrew get to you guys. He feeds off of you're pain. Winter isn't over

Reminds me of someone else on this forum!

[Jesse]

Reminds me of someone else on this forum!

I think that's what he's going for lately. Hard to tell though.

[Kayla]

I wonder if Kayla is enjoying Bozeman?    Great timing for her to have a snowy January from start to finish.   Live view from Bozeman...

 

 

Yeah, just beginning to settle in here, it's been beautiful. I have to say, driving from one snowy scene to another and not having to witness the melt off has been glorious. It's actually been quite dry since we arrived though so I'm looking forward to seeing some snow falling again tonight/tomorrow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think that's what he's going for lately. Hard to tell though.

Not really sure why you feel the need to target me. I'm joking or sarcastic 90% of the time. Or making an obvious statement like earlier...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lots of thunder on the coast. Would be a good day too take a trip down there

In Long Beach, some nice showers passing through. No thunder here.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z almost succeeds in capturing the cutoff low and keeping it west in the crucial 7 to 9 day period. At least some of the positive heights from the West Coast ridge are able to retrograde into the Aleutian ridge.