January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Yep...but far less ice than most of the rest of the metro, a trade-off I have no issue with.

 

Probably had less than 1/4" ice altogether this winter here. But had around 15 solid snowcover days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably had less than 1/4" ice altogether this winter here. But had around 15 solid snowcover days.

32 days of snowcover and 0 ice

[BLI snowman]

32 days of snowcover and 0 ice

 

Everybody should live at my location.

 

Except it would be crowded and the UHI would bog things down.

[Phil]

DCA has only had 1 so far, 0 with 1".

 

PDX is absolutely kicking their a**.

I bet DCA produces enough heat and swamp gas in a year to power the entire city of Portland for a day.

[Phil]

D.C. sucks and their winters are lame.

What does that say about your winters?

 

....but you're right.

[DareDuck]

47 days with snowcover in Bend. About 35 of them with 10" or more.

[HighlandExperience]

I think it's actually substantially more that in most places. We're below 40N and average 20+ snowcover days.

 

That map is off for the PNW.

 

No way the northern Rockies and Highlands of the PNW have less snow days coverage than some of the places in New England.

 

The entire intermountain west is wrong on that (Sierra Nevada etc.). Plus the size of Maine is exaggerated.. I bet Bastardi made that.

[snow_wizard]

Just for the fun of it I ran the numbers for SEA for the 1950s. They averaged 9 days with 1" or more snow cover that decade. Pretty nice when you consider two had no snow.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Would also be neat to see a map of variability of snowcover...I'm betting in some places the average was almost solely due to one or two winters with snow.

 

Also the average/deviation of snow depth over those days of snow cover (not average winter snow depth, which would be really skewed by snowless days). Much of Victoria has seen 10~14 days of what could be categorized as "snow cover" this year, but only 1~2 days of that "snow cover" measured over 1" (an brief overrun that dropped 4" before turning to rain). In most of the events the snow lasted less than a day on the sun-exposed roads/sidewalks, nothing like was experienced in Portland but looking at from days of snow cover you might be tricked into thinking we had a better winter up here.

[Phil]

That map is off for the PNW. No way the northern Rockies and Highlands of the PNW have less snow days coverage than some of the places in New England.

The entire intermountaim west is wrong on that. I bet Bastardi made that.

This one is higher resolution. The dots indicate stations that reflect variability beyond the resolution of the map.

 

In the context of the earlier discussion, it's more than viable.

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-o6746ToQIC0/U0H7hhql7tI/AAAAAAAAB2E/C-F1VywIZ_g/s1600/US_Snow_Depth_Average3B.jpg

[MossMan]

Each time we got the pathetic snow amounts it took two days to get the modified Arctic air to finally seep down to us so most of it would melt off in an annoying slow dripfest before we could lock it in so it was either marginal cold with a little snow or 13 degrees and bare ground. The Puget Sound has been royally screwed again this year. I washed my truck today, winter is over, bring on the heat and sun!!

[snow_wizard]

Each time we got the pathetic snow amounts it took two days to get the modified Arctic air to finally seep down to us so most of it would melt off in an annoying slow dripfest before we could lock it in so it was either marginal cold with a little snow or 13 degrees and bare ground. The Puget Sound has been royally screwed again this year. I washed my truck today, winter is over, bring on the heat and sun!!

Yeah...we need a stronger blast to do well here. Winter isn't over IMO.

[MossMan]

Yeah...we need a stronger blast to do well here. Winter isn't over IMO.

I would just love a Jan 1996 or a Dec 1990, or one of the others that blast through the region like a freight train...WITH moisture!!

[Bryant]

I washed my truck today, winter is over, bring on the heat and sun!!

Good to know so many people have given up on winter. There won't be as many posts complaining about the lack of snow when the rest of us score in February

[Front Ranger]

Just for the fun of it I ran the numbers for SEA for the 1950s. They averaged 9 days with 1" or more snow cover that decade. Pretty nice when you consider two had no snow.

 

So PDX has had about 33% more snow cover days this winter than SEA averaged in their snowiest decade in the past 80 years.

 

Pretty special.

[TT-SEA]

So PDX has had about 33% more snow cover days this winter than SEA averaged in their snowiest decade in the past 80 years.

 

Pretty special.

 

Indeed. 

[HighlandExperience]

[HighlandExperience]

This is more typical of what snowcover looks like over the lower 48. After April 1st you can count on most of the snow east of the Rockies will be gone.

[Heavy Snow]

I have been very busy getting back to work and haven't had a chance to take a look at the models in greater detail. However, it looks like we are headed into a fake cold/inversion type pattern next week as a ridge forms over the PNW. Then things start to get interesting as we head into the first week of February. Today's DAY 15 12z GEFS, GEPS and last 6 runs of the CFS all show a similar pattern with an Aleutian Block and a SE ridge resulting in a cold trough over us. I think it's likely we will have one more chance of colder weather during the first 2 weeks of February.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017012112/360/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cmce/2017012112/360/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2017012112/360/500h_anom_tle_6.na.png

[Heavy Snow]

This one is higher resolution. The dots indicate stations that reflect variability beyond the resolution of the map.

 

In the context of the earlier discussion, it's more than viable.

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-o6746ToQIC0/U0H7hhql7tI/AAAAAAAAB2E/C-F1VywIZ_g/s1600/US_Snow_Depth_Average3B.jpg

 

Interesting map. I've always thought that the closest city on the east coast to resemble our winters here would be Charlotte, NC.

[Phil]

[DareDuck]

Lol, why are you so insecure about your climate? It's annoying.

 

Read the fooking discussion. When interpreted properly in that context it's just fine.

Sure in the context of the discussion earlier it may be fine, but it doesn't make the map itself accurate. Think that's what they are saying.

[Phil]

Sure in the context of the discussion earlier it may be fine, but it doesn't make the map itself accurate. Think that's what they are saying.

Okay, but I acknowledged that at the time, an full page ago. Why does it have to be regurgitated a million times?

[DareDuck]

Okay, but I acknowledged that at the time, an entire page ago. Why does it have to be regurgitated a million times?

Because it doesn't show our snow in the mountains! Rabble rabble rabble...

[Jesse]

Why are you so insecure about your climate? It's annoying.

 

Read the fooking discussion. When interpreted properly in that context it's just fine.

 

This is kind of funny coming from someone who lied about their location for years, in order to compensate for what I imagine must be some sort of climate self-doubt.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting topics tonight

[Deweydog]

This is kind of funny coming from someone who lied about their location for years, in order to compensate for what I imagine must be some sort of climate self-doubt.

I was thinking about lying and saying I moved to Eugene until the 10th.

[Phil]

This is kind of funny coming from someone who lied about their location for years, in order to compensate for what I imagine must be some sort of climate self-doubt.

Lol, that's not why I did it. Even then, I never frothed at the mouth when a random map underestimating Appalachian snowfall was posted here, let alone every time nationwide weather discussions came up.

[Deweydog]

Lol, that's not why I did it. Even then, I never frothed at the mouth when a random map underestimating Appalachian snowfall was posted here, let alone every time nationwide weather discussions came up.

Springxiety is in the air!

[MossMan]

Interesting topics tonight

Just the normal winter cancel/mowing/sunny web cams/maps that are apparently inaccurate?/truck washing/lying about location/will there or won't there be a cold inversion...kind of stuff. Completely normal topics for late January!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just the normal winter cancel/mowing/sunny web cams/maps that are apparently inaccurate?/truck washing/lying about location/will there or won't there be a cold inversion...kind of stuff. Completely normal topics for late January!

I'm about to sing some Garth Brooks at a dive bar in Astoria so I've moved on myself!

[Deweydog]

I'm about to sing some Garth Brooks at a dive bar in Astoria so I've moved on myself!

Out there checking out the faulty sensor?

 

What bar are you at?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm moving to stampede pass. Very nice homes in that area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Out there checking out the faulty sensor?

 

What bar are you at?

Portway Tavern I think it's called.

 

And yes fixing faulty sensors at AST!

[Deweydog]

Portway Tavern I think it's called.

 

And yes fixing faulty sensors at AST!

Nice!!! I didn't know that place still had a pulse.

[Timmy]

Portway Tavern I think it's called.

 

And yes fixing faulty sensors at AST!

The old portway! Decent food there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's pretty packed tonight!

[epiceast]

It's pretty packed tonight!

 

00z Euro just dropped, it always packs a full house

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z Euro just dropped, it always packs a full house

Yes!

[Jesse]

Yes!

Did you karaoke the run?