St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 Both the 6z and 12z NAM continuing to show a bigger ice potential than the other models up this way. 12z run a few ticks stronger with the low as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 00z Euro ice potential... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 12z NAM.. ICE: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017011406/084/zr_acc.us_mw.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017011406/084/zr_acc.us_c.png Snow: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017011406/084/snku_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 12z NAM ice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 We're within the range now of the higher resolution NAM models. I've noticed there's more of a thump later Sunday afternoon and evening. One of the NAM's had .29" of ice by 0Z Monday here in Omaha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 What's interesting is you can see how warm it is at 850 in Omaha. Flowers mentioned this yesterday in that video where he said the precip can bring down that warm air so if you're just below freezing at the surface, it can warm to above freezing with the rain falling and all you get is a cold rain. Ground temps are cold so you might get some ice for a while, but not as much on trees and power lines. Good times Ravs!!! Pretty sad we get pumped for an ice event. Oh well - at least it's something.I have broke these down into 3 hour segments and a running total precip to better pinpoint things--I will do DSM,OMA and LNK and let Ravs do some others as he was still at the bar when I left. DSM (actually about 30 mins W-- but close enough)MON 00Z 16-JAN -1.1 2.3 1026 74 93 0.06 567 546 MON 03Z 16-JAN -1.4 3.3 1025 87 96 0.14 567 547 MON 06Z 16-JAN -1.6 3.7 1024 91 86 0.20 567 548 MON 09Z 16-JAN -1.7 5.1 1023 94 39 0.21 566 548 MON 12Z 16-JAN -1.7 5.4 1021 97 77 0.22 565 549 MON 15Z 16-JAN -1.3 5.6 1019 98 97 0.37 564 549 MON 18Z 16-JAN 0.1 5.5 1015 99 98 0.62 561 549 MON 21Z 16-JAN 1.6 5.6 1011 99 45 0.69 557 548 TUE 00Z 17-JAN 2.5 4.7 1010 99 52 0.70 554 546 TUE 03Z 17-JAN 1.5 2.8 1009 99 93 0.72 551 544 TUE 06Z 17-JAN 0.5 2.2 1009 99 87 0.78 550 542 OMASUN 21Z 15-JAN -1.3 1.9 1026 84 98 0.07 566 546 MON 00Z 16-JAN -1.7 2.8 1025 90 99 0.18 566 547 MON 03Z 16-JAN -1.8 4.1 1024 92 95 0.31 566 548 MON 06Z 16-JAN -1.8 4.5 1023 94 56 0.33 566 548 MON 09Z 16-JAN -1.6 5.1 1021 96 61 0.35 565 548 MON 12Z 16-JAN -1.3 5.1 1018 97 91 0.38 563 549 MON 15Z 16-JAN -0.6 4.5 1017 98 99 0.61 562 548 MON 18Z 16-JAN 0.6 4.9 1013 99 86 0.77 558 547 MON 21Z 16-JAN 1.1 3.6 1010 99 67 1.00 553 545 TUE 00Z 17-JAN 0.1 2.2 1011 99 75 1.04 551 542 TUE 03Z 17-JAN -0.6 1.1 1012 96 64 1.05 551 541 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -0.8 -0.3 1013 92 79 1.08 553 543 LNKSUN 03Z 15-JAN -2.8 1.5 1033 34 68 0.01 571 545 SUN 06Z 15-JAN -3.1 1.1 1032 41 85 0.01 571 545 SUN 09Z 15-JAN -2.5 0.5 1031 47 87 0.01 570 545 SUN 12Z 15-JAN -2.6 0.9 1030 60 93 0.02 569 545 SUN 15Z 15-JAN -2.4 1.0 1030 71 91 0.02 569 546 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -2.0 1.9 1028 78 94 0.05 569 546 SUN 21Z 15-JAN -2.3 3.7 1025 88 98 0.17 567 547 MON 00Z 16-JAN -2.6 3.6 1025 93 97 0.29 567 547 MON 03Z 16-JAN -2.6 4.6 1024 95 76 0.36 566 548 MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.4 5.3 1022 97 54 0.36 566 548 MON 09Z 16-JAN -2.2 5.3 1020 97 89 0.39 565 549 MON 12Z 16-JAN -1.9 5.7 1017 98 99 0.45 562 549 MON 15Z 16-JAN -1.0 4.6 1015 99 96 0.69 560 548 MON 18Z 16-JAN 0.2 4.5 1013 99 75 0.78 556 545 MON 21Z 16-JAN 0.4 2.4 1011 98 66 0.83 550 542 TUE 00Z 17-JAN -0.6 1.2 1013 95 83 0.88 549 539 TUE 03Z 17-JAN -1.0 0.1 1014 92 91 0.91 553 542 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -1.6 -0.5 1015 88 66 0.93 555 543 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 12Z GFS not showing the ice Sunday afternoon and evening in Nebraska. Precip's barely made it to Nebraska at 12Z MONDAY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 A lot of the rain that falls on GFS in N. IA/S. WI, the temp is like 32-34 degrees. If it's too warm by a degree or two... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011412/060/sfct.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 RGEM through 48: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017011412/048/prateptype.conus.png http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017011412/048/zr_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 Temps at 48 (RGEM vs GFS) RGEM: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017011412/048/sfct.us_c.png GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011412/048/sfct.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 I'd go with the RGEM for temps over the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 Driving to work Monday morning is gonna suck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 I'm already sitting at 32.5 degrees at 11AM here in Topeka. The temp has risen 4 degrees since 7AM. I'm guessing we stay above freezing the rest of the daylight hours today as long as it stays dry. Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 howd the 12z Euro look? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 just saw Euro map that gives Lincoln over an inch of ice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 Was planning to head back to school on Monday morning, but obviously don't think that's going to happen anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 DSM going with EURO- -Initially the warm layer aloft will be 1-2C or less leading tosnow or a wintry mix, but the persistent warm advection willlikely boost those values to 3C+ flipping our precip type tofreezing rain. This will unfortunately also coincide with the maxlift from the aforementioned low with much stronger and deeperforcing into Monday. The persistent warm advection and latent heatrelease from a warm layer possibly in excess of 5-6C depending onmodel choice should warm surface temps and dewpoints sufficientlyto flip our precip type to mainly rain across the southeast two-thirds of the forecast area later in the day. Confidence in howthis plays out in sensible weather impacts is still somewhat lowhowever as the warm layer degree and road vs surface temperaturesare all uncertain. The GFS warm layer is much less aggressivesuggesting more of a mix, and much like that occurred last Tuesdaythe degree of road temperature recovery vs temp/dewpoints isquestionable. However the most favored solution leans toward thewarmer ECMWF/NAM warm layer and more significant freezing rainimpacts so with the event now starting around 24 hours away haveopted to issue winter weather headlines in the form of an IceStorm Warning west and a Winter Weather Advisory elsewhere. Therewill certainly be some mixed precip potential in the warning, butfelt it best to highlight that area where ice accums are expectedto reach 0.3 in spots. With a mix and lower ice accums elsewhere,felt it best to keep it simpler with just a Winter WeatherAdvisory with varied precip types north and the possibility of aninch or two north on the back side of the system. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 Beautiful out today. 35* and sunny with no wind... Got my car in my shop, ready to put the studded snows on it if necessary, generator is gassed up and hooked up to the house. Have plenty of eggs, milk and bread... a 30 pack of Hamms, 2 bottles of vodka, zing zang, girlfriend's coming over in about an hour... I think I'm ready Bring it on Mother Nature!!!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 14, 2017 Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 http://www.weather.gov/images/oax/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=90497 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 anyone have euro deets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 Farther SE with the surface low and Omaha gets crushed with ice it looks like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 anyone have euro deets? Here you go: Near DSM:SUN 18Z 15-JAN 0.2 2.6 1029 35 86 0.00 567 544 MON 00Z 16-JAN -0.8 2.8 1026 49 94 0.01 566 546 MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.0 3.3 1025 87 98 0.11 566 547 MON 12Z 16-JAN -2.1 4.7 1022 91 98 0.06 565 548 MON 18Z 16-JAN -1.0 5.5 1018 97 99 0.15 562 548 TUE 00Z 17-JAN -0.2 4.1 1013 99 90 0.31 556 545 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -0.4 2.4 1013 97 80 0.04 555 544 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -0.7 1.4 1014 93 75 0.00 557 545 Omaha:SUN 12Z 15-JAN -2.7 2.5 1030 35 87 0.00 568 544 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -0.1 2.3 1028 50 93 0.01 567 545 MON 00Z 16-JAN -1.7 2.8 1025 87 98 0.06 566 546 MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.0 2.9 1024 91 98 0.10 566 547 MON 12Z 16-JAN -1.9 4.4 1020 93 99 0.09 564 548 MON 18Z 16-JAN -1.1 4.1 1016 96 99 0.25 560 547 TUE 00Z 17-JAN -1.0 1.5 1015 94 83 0.38 555 544 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -1.0 0.6 1016 93 94 0.03 558 545 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -2.7 -0.3 1018 82 40 0.00 557 543 Lincoln:SUN 06Z 15-JAN -4.1 3.0 1032 41 69 0.00 570 545 SUN 12Z 15-JAN -1.8 2.8 1030 45 97 0.01 569 545 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -1.8 2.5 1028 75 93 0.05 568 546 MON 00Z 16-JAN -2.1 2.8 1025 90 99 0.12 566 547 MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.4 3.5 1023 93 99 0.09 566 547 MON 12Z 16-JAN -2.6 4.7 1019 95 98 0.07 563 548 MON 18Z 16-JAN -1.5 3.3 1016 96 99 0.37 559 546 TUE 00Z 17-JAN -1.3 0.6 1015 94 85 0.47 556 544 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -0.6 0.5 1017 90 94 0.04 559 545 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -4.2 0.9 1019 73 51 0.00 558 544 OLUSUN 12Z 15-JAN -2.8 2.2 1030 43 79 0.00 567 544 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -0.1 1.6 1028 48 84 0.00 567 545 MON 00Z 16-JAN -2.0 2.1 1024 89 99 0.06 565 546 MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.4 2.2 1023 93 99 0.26 565 546 MON 12Z 16-JAN -2.7 3.1 1020 94 96 0.09 563 547 MON 18Z 16-JAN -1.8 2.6 1018 94 97 0.19 560 545 TUE 00Z 17-JAN -1.4 0.3 1017 93 97 0.36 557 544 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -2.4 -0.4 1019 77 97 0.07 558 544 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -7.2 0.8 1020 72 7 0.00 557 542 TopekaSUN 06Z 15-JAN -2.4 5.1 1032 71 89 0.00 574 549 SUN 12Z 15-JAN -1.9 4.7 1030 83 81 0.04 572 548 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -1.3 5.7 1028 93 97 0.14 571 549 MON 00Z 16-JAN -1.1 6.1 1024 97 77 0.11 569 550 MON 06Z 16-JAN -0.8 6.1 1021 99 90 0.04 568 551 MON 12Z 16-JAN 1.1 7.6 1014 99 100 0.29 564 552 MON 18Z 16-JAN 6.2 4.7 1009 99 56 0.22 556 548 TUE 00Z 17-JAN 3.3 2.6 1011 98 77 0.06 554 545 TUE 06Z 17-JAN 0.1 2.6 1016 92 74 0.00 561 548 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 Farther SE with the surface low and Omaha gets crushed with ice it looks like.Lincoln too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 thanks money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 Seems to me the delay of the heaviest precip continues to be pushed back; at least on the Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 Nothing here. I'm ok with a whiff if it's used on an ice storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 Wow EURO gives me an inch of ice, just save me power......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 Here you go: Near DSM:SUN 18Z 15-JAN 0.2 2.6 1029 35 86 0.00 567 544 MON 00Z 16-JAN -0.8 2.8 1026 49 94 0.01 566 546 MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.0 3.3 1025 87 98 0.11 566 547 MON 12Z 16-JAN -2.1 4.7 1022 91 98 0.06 565 548 MON 18Z 16-JAN -1.0 5.5 1018 97 99 0.15 562 548 TUE 00Z 17-JAN -0.2 4.1 1013 99 90 0.31 556 545 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -0.4 2.4 1013 97 80 0.04 555 544 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -0.7 1.4 1014 93 75 0.00 557 545 Omaha:SUN 12Z 15-JAN -2.7 2.5 1030 35 87 0.00 568 544 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -0.1 2.3 1028 50 93 0.01 567 545 MON 00Z 16-JAN -1.7 2.8 1025 87 98 0.06 566 546 MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.0 2.9 1024 91 98 0.10 566 547 MON 12Z 16-JAN -1.9 4.4 1020 93 99 0.09 564 548 MON 18Z 16-JAN -1.1 4.1 1016 96 99 0.25 560 547 TUE 00Z 17-JAN -1.0 1.5 1015 94 83 0.38 555 544 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -1.0 0.6 1016 93 94 0.03 558 545 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -2.7 -0.3 1018 82 40 0.00 557 543 Lincoln:SUN 06Z 15-JAN -4.1 3.0 1032 41 69 0.00 570 545 SUN 12Z 15-JAN -1.8 2.8 1030 45 97 0.01 569 545 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -1.8 2.5 1028 75 93 0.05 568 546 MON 00Z 16-JAN -2.1 2.8 1025 90 99 0.12 566 547 MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.4 3.5 1023 93 99 0.09 566 547 MON 12Z 16-JAN -2.6 4.7 1019 95 98 0.07 563 548 MON 18Z 16-JAN -1.5 3.3 1016 96 99 0.37 559 546 TUE 00Z 17-JAN -1.3 0.6 1015 94 85 0.47 556 544 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -0.6 0.5 1017 90 94 0.04 559 545 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -4.2 0.9 1019 73 51 0.00 558 544 OLUSUN 12Z 15-JAN -2.8 2.2 1030 43 79 0.00 567 544 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -0.1 1.6 1028 48 84 0.00 567 545 MON 00Z 16-JAN -2.0 2.1 1024 89 99 0.06 565 546 MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.4 2.2 1023 93 99 0.26 565 546 MON 12Z 16-JAN -2.7 3.1 1020 94 96 0.09 563 547 MON 18Z 16-JAN -1.8 2.6 1018 94 97 0.19 560 545 TUE 00Z 17-JAN -1.4 0.3 1017 93 97 0.36 557 544 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -2.4 -0.4 1019 77 97 0.07 558 544 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -7.2 0.8 1020 72 7 0.00 557 542 TopekaSUN 06Z 15-JAN -2.4 5.1 1032 71 89 0.00 574 549 SUN 12Z 15-JAN -1.9 4.7 1030 83 81 0.04 572 548 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -1.3 5.7 1028 93 97 0.14 571 549 MON 00Z 16-JAN -1.1 6.1 1024 97 77 0.11 569 550 MON 06Z 16-JAN -0.8 6.1 1021 99 90 0.04 568 551 MON 12Z 16-JAN 1.1 7.6 1014 99 100 0.29 564 552 MON 18Z 16-JAN 6.2 4.7 1009 99 56 0.22 556 548 TUE 00Z 17-JAN 3.3 2.6 1011 98 77 0.06 554 545 TUE 06Z 17-JAN 0.1 2.6 1016 92 74 0.00 561 548 Thanks for updating me on Columbus! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 Was the GFS this cold? Seems like the Euro is the only model with this much ice here. Might be overdone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 Looks like DSM WFO going with colder Euro and Canadian. Discussion not out yet but have lowered high temp on Monday for the city down to 33! This from earlier forecast highs for Monday of 41-38-37. This could get nasty! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 I'm now down to a high of 33 on Monday according to nws. Though accuweather and the weather channel now never have me getting above freezing which is going to be a big problem! Lacrosse nws even stating their southern counties may need an ice storm warning now. Not sure what Dvn is thinking as they have not changed a thing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 Roughly 24 hours until the start of things here and still not sure if we'll get several inches of snow, 0.25" of ice, or nothing at all. Tough spot for MPX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 Roughly 24 hours until the start of things here and still not sure if we'll get several inches of snow, 0.25" of ice, or nothing at all. Tough spot for MPX.Yep. La crosse still no headlines either. Deciding between advisory and ice storm warning. Guessing the advisory although the nam is bullish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 I don't think it'll be as bad here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 MKE's says GFS cooler temps has some merit and headlines will be likely: The GFSMOS 3hrly temps show readings 3-5 degrees colder than the NAM.Predominant low level flow will be from the east so thermaladvection likely to be initially limited and cloud cover likely toinhibit the normal morning boost so the colder numbers have somemerit. Prior to warm layer push some initial snow is plausible butdry airmass may limit that potential. The NAM and ECMWF show astronger push of moisture in the 12-18z time frame while the GEMand GFS show lighter qpf into the far south in that timeframe.Clearly the GFS keeps the concern for the fzra longer than the NAMwhich could last into the evening hours. Mid level shortwave alongwith surface/850 low passage will enhance vertical motion fieldsMonday night. For now leaning towards a blended solution withareas of nrn and wrn cwa most vulnerable to a longer period offzra than the south or southeast. Still think a headline willlikely be needed to handle this potential icing scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 RGEM: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017011512/048/zr_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 Little weird that there are no headlines at all here in DBQ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 Uffda ice storms tough to.forecast but looks like a decent one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2017 Report Share Posted January 15, 2017 Yep. La crosse still no headlines either. Deciding between advisory and ice storm warning. Guessing the advisory although the nam is bullishLaCrosse needs a headline more than up here. Based on trends I think MPX will go advisory or cancel completely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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