January 14th-17th Winter Storm Cocktail

[Money]

So based on the ensembles it looks like the OP GFS was by far the fastest and farther north of it's members, and UKIE came in pretty slow as well..

[clintbeed1993]

I would take sleet over freezing rain any day of the week.

 

Barely had any today and it was still a pain in the a** to drive in

 

Sleet is just aggravating because it takes so much of it to accumulate and you're right on the edge of getting a snowstorm.  It's just a middle finger.

[Snowlover76]

Sleet is just aggravating because it takes so much of it to accumulate and you're right on the edge of getting a snowstorm. It's just a middle finger.

It lasts forever though. Bulletproof pack.

[clintbeed1993]

It lasts forever though. Bulletproof pack.

 

Well it's just not that fun to watch or be in imho.  Wasted opportunity at a nice winter storm if it's all you get.  It really cuts into snow accumulations too.  Hopefully I'm far enough Northwest to avoid it but it's going to be close.

[Andrew NE]

Well it's just not that fun to watch or be in imho. Wasted opportunity at a nice winter storm if it's all you get. It really cuts into snow accumulations too. Hopefully I'm far enough Northwest to avoid it but it's going to be close.

I think you would be in a good spot for mainly snow. This is going to get very interesting for mets in the next couple days.

[Money]

Euro is stronger/more precip this run and a tad warmer so far through 90 compared to 12z

[ToastedRavs]

Less precip for DSM on this run of the Euro.  Let me know any late nighters that  want their text output.  here is Des Moines'

SUN 00Z 15-JAN  -2.8     1.4    1033      40      51    0.00     570     544    SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -2.8    -0.1    1032      41      74    0.00     569     544    SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -3.6     0.8    1029      74      91    0.06     568     545    SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -2.3     2.7    1026      81      91    0.02     567     547    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -2.7     4.8    1023      92      93    0.09     566     548    MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.6     6.0    1020      96      95    0.09     565     550    MON 12Z 16-JAN  -1.2     7.4    1014      98      57    0.38     562     550    MON 18Z 16-JAN   2.3     5.8    1012      98      68    0.05     558     549    TUE 00Z 17-JAN   4.6     3.9    1010      99      67    0.05     557     549    TUE 06Z 17-JAN   0.9     2.5    1011      96      58    0.01     555     546    TUE 12Z 17-JAN   0.5    -1.2    1010      98      62    0.00     549     541    TUE 18Z 17-JAN   0.9    -1.7    1011      73      91    0.01     546     537    

[Snowlover76]

How's Lincoln looking?

 

Thx

[ToastedRavs]

How's Lincoln looking?

 

Thx

Lincoln, NE

SUN 00Z 15-JAN  -2.3     1.0    1032      39      77    0.00     572     546    SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -3.5     3.6    1031      82      97    0.13     571     547    SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -3.5     2.4    1028      87      96    0.12     568     547    SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -2.8     3.8    1025      89      96    0.07     567     548    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -2.7     5.2    1021      96      99    0.18     565     549    MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.4     6.5    1016      97      98    0.17     563     550    MON 12Z 16-JAN  -0.3     4.0    1010      99      41    0.29     555     547    MON 18Z 16-JAN   2.6     1.0    1009      99      88    0.04     550     542    TUE 00Z 17-JAN   0.2     0.0    1012      96      65    0.02     550     540    TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -1.7    -1.5    1015      89      67    0.00     549     537    TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -4.2    -3.6    1015      83      79    0.03     548     536    TUE 18Z 17-JAN  -0.5    -1.7    1016      58      63    0.01     554     541    WED 00Z 18-JAN  -1.7    -0.3    1017      72      57    0.00     557     544    

[Snowlover76]

Looking a lot better than last runs. Seems drier.

[gabel23]

Lincoln, NE

SUN 00Z 15-JAN -2.3 1.0 1032 39 77 0.00 572 546

SUN 06Z 15-JAN -3.5 3.6 1031 82 97 0.13 571 547

SUN 12Z 15-JAN -3.5 2.4 1028 87 96 0.12 568 547

SUN 18Z 15-JAN -2.8 3.8 1025 89 96 0.07 567 548

MON 00Z 16-JAN -2.7 5.2 1021 96 99 0.18 565 549

MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.4 6.5 1016 97 98 0.17 563 550

MON 12Z 16-JAN -0.3 4.0 1010 99 41 0.29 555 547

MON 18Z 16-JAN 2.6 1.0 1009 99 88 0.04 550 542

TUE 00Z 17-JAN 0.2 0.0 1012 96 65 0.02 550 540

TUE 06Z 17-JAN -1.7 -1.5 1015 89 67 0.00 549 537

TUE 12Z 17-JAN -4.2 -3.6 1015 83 79 0.03 548 536

TUE 18Z 17-JAN -0.5 -1.7 1016 58 63 0.01 554 541

WED 00Z 18-JAN -1.7 -0.3 1017 72 57 0.00 557 544

 

OLU please, thx.

[ToastedRavs]

OLU please, thx.

SUN 00Z 15-JAN  -2.7     1.9    1031      32      56    0.00     570     545    SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -4.6     2.3    1030      49      75    0.00     570     546    SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -3.5     1.9    1027      72      98    0.01     567     546    SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -3.1     1.7    1025      85      97    0.02     566     546    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -3.4     2.6    1022      94     100    0.24     564     547    MON 06Z 16-JAN  -3.0     4.8    1018      95      98    0.22     562     548    MON 12Z 16-JAN  -2.2     2.3    1012      94      17    0.47     555     545    MON 18Z 16-JAN  -0.8     1.7    1011      97      92    0.07     549     540    TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -1.0    -1.2    1014      92      88    0.17     548     537    TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -3.5    -2.6    1016      89      90    0.03     548     536    TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -5.8    -2.4    1016      87      94    0.18     548     536    TUE 18Z 17-JAN  -3.8    -1.6    1017      80      77    0.03     553     540    WED 00Z 18-JAN  -5.3     0.7    1017      86      58    0.00     557     543    

[Grizzcoat]

Less precip ToastedRavs--- but did you notice the surface is colder and the 850 warmer??? (compared to the 12Z) Not a good as sign. .6" of ice would shut DSM down Monday AM

[ToastedRavs]

Less precip ToastedRavs--- but did you notice the surface is colder and the 850 warmer??? (compared to the 12Z) Not a good as sign. .6" of ice would shut DSM down Monday AM

 

I did notice that.  The only plus side of this thing for us here in the metro and throughout the area is that it will primarily fall on the holiday weekend, with Monday being the holiday.  At least that'll help with road treatments

[Andrew NE]

Does the Euro have the ability to show any sleet accum. Omaha seems to be just NW of the heavy frz rain but the snow fall is in central to NE Nebraska?

[ToastedRavs]

Does the Euro have the ability to show any sleet accum. Omaha seems to be just NW of the heavy frz rain but the snow fall is in central to NE Nebraska?

 

 

The only place I have seen a sleet forecast, or one that takes in account for sleet with snow, is the SPIA Index.  I think it's run by a couple of guys from OU, or former OU I should say.  But, I think they only forecast out 48 hours in advance

[Grizzcoat]

PL or sleet would likely have to have 925mb  (about 2500ft AGL below freezing.) From looking at the Euro-- it's possible at times but way too much going on to say where at this juncture.

[Andrew NE]

Thank you for the information!

[ToastedRavs]

The COBB output also does sleet forecast but I am not sure how accurate that is.

[Money]

Yeah no point in trying to pinpoint that stuff right now. It's still 100+ hours away and storm isn't even sampled/onshore yet 

[ToastedRavs]

I just did a quick glance at some COBB outputs from the 0z GFS, it had LNK at .08" of PL, nada for DSM and Omaha but KSUX, or Sioux City had 3.2" of snow with additional .36" of PL, or sleet

[Hoosier]

In areas where the warm nose is strong enough to cause full melting of precip as it falls, you'd want to have a layer around -4 or -5C (or colder) underneath the warm nose to make sleet more likely. Anything warmer than that and the precip probably wouldn't be able to refreeze in time before hitting the ground.

[mlgamer]

Sleet is just aggravating because it takes so much of it to accumulate and you're right on the edge of getting a snowstorm.  It's just a middle finger.

 

My NWS forecast for Sunday night is a 90% chance of rain with a low of 34.  Another middle finger.

[educatorjen]

Omaha: From the National Weather Service

 

Sunday

A chance of freezing rain and sleet before 2pm, then a chance of snow and sleet between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain or freezing rain after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night

Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 2am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 26.

M.L.King Day

Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 3pm, then a chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 3pm and 5pm, then a chance of snow after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34.

Monday Night

A chance of snow before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.

[Snowlover76]

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=311766

[jaster220]

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=311766

 

pass!

[St Paul Storm]

Here's the run through the 17th. Taken from Ryan Maue on twitter. If this verifies, some people are in trouble.

[Niko]

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=311766

I hate ice....give me rain and 60s in January instead of ice.

[Tom]

Here's the run through the 17th. Taken from Ryan Maue on twitter. If this verifies, some people are in trouble.

That is a widespread crippling ice storm for NE/KS and near the TX/OK Pan Handle...sheesh!

[Tom]

12z GFS:

 

Ice:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011212/144/zr_acc.us_c.png

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011212/144/zr_acc.us_mw.png

 

Snow:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011212/144/snku_acc.us_c.png

[NEJeremy]

Less ice on the 12Z run. mainly 3/4" or less everywhere. there were some weird precip maps though, with holes in the middle of the precip fields.

[St Paul Storm]

Chiefs/Steelers game in KC on Sunday could be fun. Noon kickoff in an ice storm.

[gosaints]

Upper level Low should actually have good sampling for tonights runs

[Tom]

12z GGEM...model that always seems to run to cold...

 

Ice:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011212/138/zr_acc.conus.png

 

 

 

Snow:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011212/138/snku_acc.conus.png

[Jaycee]

12z GGEM...model that always seems to run to cold...

 

Ice:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011212/138/zr_acc.conus.png

 

 

 

Snow:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011212/138/snku_acc.conus.png

 

RIP Kansas, you'll be missed.

[Snowlover76]

The Chiefs game on Sunday should be awesome to watch 

[GDR]

Keep moving that heavier ice nw.. they can have it

[gosaints]

Euro looks a little faster than the GFS thru 96.  No chance at a front end thump to the east of the low according to the EURO

[GDR]

Speed up some more

[Jaycee]

Interesting-- Wonder what that means for us north of the low? Obviously fast movers aren't good for anyone, but I don't necessarily want sleet.