January 14th-17th Winter Storm Cocktail

[gosaints]

Interesting-- Wonder what that means for us north of the low? Obviously fast movers aren't good for anyone, but I don't necessarily want sleet.

Its not a fast mover by any means just ejects faster than the GFS

[Snowlover76]

Effing A

 

http://newenglandwxforum.invisionzone.com/uploads/monthly_01_2017/post-7-0-52957300-1484245707.png

[gosaints]

Looks great.  Hopefully no wind

[gabel23]

Effing A

 

http://newenglandwxforum.invisionzone.com/uploads/monthly_01_2017/post-7-0-52957300-1484245707.png

Holy balls that's a lot of ice. Any snow after that?? 

[Snowlover76]

I don't know. That's the only map I've seen

[Hoosier]

Most of the 12z models (have not checked the Euro) were off to varying degrees in placement of the 32F line valid at 18z. Too far northwest compared to reality. May give some credence to colder solutions over the weekend but we'll see.

[St Paul Storm]

Most of the 12z models (have not checked the Euro) were off to varying degrees in placement of the 32F line valid at 18z. Too far northwest compared to reality. May give some credence to colder solutions over the weekend but we'll see.

Yep, many locations are running a good 5-6F colder right now than the models are showing. From the sounds of it, the 12z Euro did the same thing. Whether or not that translates to anything this weekend is the million dollar question. Would have some major implications obviously.

[gosaints]

Yep, many locations are running a good 5-6F colder right now than the models are showing. From the sounds of it, the 12z Euro did the same thing.

Would have to think that ice storms are quite rare in the twin cities

[St Paul Storm]

Would have to think that ice storms are quite rare in the twin cities

Highly unlikely. Doubt I see much precip at all. No reasoning behind that, just a hunch. Still cool to track this storm though.

[gabel23]

Ice storm warnings are up and posted. 

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEING ACCUMULATING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

 

 

 

 

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL HAS

ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY
TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE MULTI-DAY
PERIOD OF ONE-QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

[gabel23]

North Platte hoisted watches, expect the rest of the northern fringe of this storm to do the same very soon. 

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING FROM
SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING...EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

[Madtown]

Mkx downplaying bug time...maybe .25 of ice nut feel mostly liquid is the way to go.

[Jaycee]

Wow, well the GFS gives us plain rain, hardly any ice even. looks weird to me.

[GDR]

GFS mostly rain for Central and southern Iowa. I'll take that

[Snowlover76]

GFS has a bad handling of lower level cold. Hopefully it's right though.

 

I'm still expecting plain rain btw.

[NEJeremy]

WSW for eastern Nebraska:

 

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA/VALLEY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA ON SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. THE FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND
SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. FREEZING RAIN IS MORE LIKELY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHILE MORE OF A MIX IS
EXPECTED NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE. TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH
OVER 4 INCHES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHILE REMAINING CLOSER TO AN
INCH OR SO NEAR THE INTERSTATE.

* MAIN IMPACT...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO ICY OR SNOW-PACKED ROADS
IS LIKELY. SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS WILL BE VERY SLIPPERY AS
WELL. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

[Snowlover76]

This is going far north IMO. I've been saying this for days now.

[Jaycee]

This is going far north IMO. I've been saying this for days now.

Doubt it man. The models are underplaying the cold we're experiencing right now, I think we're in for it. To each their own though

[Grizzcoat]

You know a storm is coming when everyone rushes to the grocery store to get milk ,eggs and flour. It's like everyone bakes bannock and watches Little house re-runs....

[mlgamer]

The models show the main surface low passing by my area not until 96+ hours from now.  I'm thinking there may be more surprises ahead before then...

[Grizzcoat]

Less FZRA on the GFS last several runs-- most recent 00Z GFS

[Grizzcoat]

There goes the SN-- UP, UP and AWAY to the dakotas!! (trending that way)

[gosaints]

By far the warmest of the models. Skeptical of that especially in high snow cover areas

[Grizzcoat]

True-- and 33 -34 F is not really going to help much with as cold as the surface has/will be during the event until later on--- QPF on GFS is trending up.

[Snowlover76]

My forecast for Lincoln is looking pretty good right now

[Bellona]

I don't buy the gfs at the moment. No real reason for me not to other than I just think it's too warm.

[Andrew NE]

Even if it is warmer ground temps are in the mid to upper 20's around here so it will still spell a disaster. There is really no out at this point imo.

[Grizzcoat]

GEM is not as pretty as the GFS...

[bud2380]

Oh wow the gem just blasts Iowa with ice. .75" for Iowa city

[Grizzcoat]

GEM-

[St Paul Storm]

2m temps on the GFS don't even get above 32F until 18z on Thursday here now. So much for the highly anticipated January thaw. Might not even get above freezing at all if another few inches of snow fall on top of the 9" that fell this week.

[NEJeremy]

Curious to see what NAM shows as we get closer

[Snowlover76]

What's the Euro showing

[ToastedRavs]

The trend continues on the Euro.  Less precip for Central Iowa... here are DSM numbers.  Will post others in a minute

SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -0.8     2.0    1029      64      87    0.00     568     545    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -1.5     3.0    1025      86      97    0.02     567     547    MON 06Z 16-JAN  -1.7     5.4    1023      94      53    0.13     567     549    MON 12Z 16-JAN  -0.9     6.8    1019      98      85    0.02     566     551    MON 18Z 16-JAN   3.7     7.5    1015      99      48    0.20     564     551    TUE 00Z 17-JAN   5.9     7.3    1011      97      49    0.06     561     552    TUE 06Z 17-JAN   7.7     6.0    1009      99      29    0.01     559     551    TUE 12Z 17-JAN   4.1     3.4    1007      98      41    0.00     554     548    TUE 18Z 17-JAN   3.2     2.0    1008      75      42    0.00     550     544    

[ToastedRavs]

Lincoln, NE:

SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -2.4     1.5    1032      44      95    0.04     570     545    SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -3.4     1.9    1030      81      86    0.07     569     546    SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -2.8     3.5    1027      88      95    0.04     568     547    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -2.8     5.1    1023      95      98    0.29     567     548    MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.2     6.5    1020      98      96    0.12     566     550    MON 12Z 16-JAN  -1.0     7.2    1015      99      96    0.20     562     551    MON 18Z 16-JAN   4.5     5.3    1010      99      42    0.15     558     549    TUE 00Z 17-JAN   6.0     4.6    1007      99      95    0.04     554     548    TUE 06Z 17-JAN   2.4     0.9    1007      98      93    0.09     548     543    TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -3.4    -1.5    1010      87      69    0.01     549     541    TUE 18Z 17-JAN   0.5    -3.0    1012      58      66    0.00     550     540    

OMAHA:

SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -2.0     0.4    1032      28      90    0.00     569     544    SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -2.6     0.9    1030      63      88    0.02     568     545    SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -1.8     2.7    1027      79      97    0.01     568     547    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -2.1     4.5    1024      93      97    0.20     566     548    MON 06Z 16-JAN  -1.7     5.1    1021      96      90    0.23     566     550    MON 12Z 16-JAN  -0.5     7.6    1016      98      97    0.09     564     551    MON 18Z 16-JAN   5.1     6.5    1011      98      27    0.22     560     550    TUE 00Z 17-JAN   6.7     5.4    1008      98      82    0.04     556     549    TUE 06Z 17-JAN   6.2     2.6    1006     100      77    0.07     552     547    TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -0.6     0.5    1008      91      41    0.00     548     542    TUE 18Z 17-JAN   0.8    -2.3    1011      61      67    0.00     549     541    

Columbus, OLU, NE

SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -2.8     0.5    1029      52      89    0.00     568     545    SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -2.6     2.2    1027      77      93    0.00     568     547    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -3.0     3.6    1023      93     100    0.16     565     547    MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.9     4.7    1021      96      98    0.22     565     548    MON 12Z 16-JAN  -2.2     6.1    1016      96      95    0.11     562     550    MON 18Z 16-JAN   0.6     4.8    1012      99      25    0.30     557     547    TUE 00Z 17-JAN   0.9     3.9    1009      99      97    0.06     552     545    TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -0.5     0.1    1008      96      97    0.31     547     540    TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -4.5    -3.3    1010      87      67    0.09     547     539    TUE 18Z 17-JAN  -2.0    -2.7    1012      71      72    0.00     549     540    WED 00Z 18-JAN  -3.3    -1.9    1012      82      66    0.00     551     541    

[ToastedRavs]

Here's KC for those interested.  Go Chiefs I suppose on Sunday!

SUN 00Z 15-JAN  -0.4     5.5    1033      38      77    0.00     575     549    SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -2.0     4.7    1032      80      98    0.12     574     549    SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -2.0     5.0    1029      90      97    0.18     572     550    SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -1.1     6.5    1027      94      83    0.16     572     551    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -0.6     5.9    1023      98      40    0.03     570     552    MON 06Z 16-JAN   1.1     7.8    1019      99      79    0.02     568     553    MON 12Z 16-JAN   7.1     9.2    1013      97      73    0.15     565     555    MON 18Z 16-JAN  11.2     7.2    1011      92      25    0.06     563     554    TUE 00Z 17-JAN  10.9     7.6    1008      96      29    0.02     560     554    TUE 06Z 17-JAN   5.6     5.8    1009      92      33    0.00     558     551    

[Grizzcoat]

Just like I thought awhile ago-- a Dakotas special!! UP, UP and AWAY!! An Aberdeen bullseye. .

 

[james1976]

DMX going with .10-.25 of ice for my area.

[Snowlover76]

so thankful it has trended to a mainly rain event here 

[NEJeremy]

Valley NWS has lowered ice amounts to .1-.2" and switching to rain by noon Monday. In the end I'm glad we're not having a major ice storm, but stupid goddamn rain in January.