February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Brennan]

Jealous!

Nothing to be jealous about, I promise. I had one good snowfall that is jealousy worthy on december 11th. Snowed 3.5" and lasted all week.

[stuffradio]

The Euro weekly shows the EPO going back negative by months end, and the PNA hovers around +/- going into March.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Nothing to be jealous about, I promise. I had one good snowfall that is jealousy worthy on december 11th. Snowed 3.5" and lasted all week.

More than I have seen in 5 years... SO Yes, I am Jealous. --  I would be thrilled to see that!!!! 

[Perturbed Member]

The euro track looks pretty much like the NAM and NAVGEM and pretty close to GEM too. I think the GFS is the only one with the really far south track. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Euro Says.... 48 hours --- Low slightly weaker, slightly further south -- EDIT: not sure what the impact is with my minimal access to the Euro and not precipitation maps

[Perturbed Member]

I think we are all going to score on this euro run. 

 

I see 4-5 inch totals over SEA by HR 66. Should be more coming. 

[Front Ranger]

Euro is slower, stronger, further north with low compared to GFS. Maybe not as cold, at least at first.

[Brennan]

Compact snow and ice on the side roads... slick as hell right now. Going to Target to get baby wipes and diapers

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like a more solid deformation band will setup across southern BC later this afternoon/evening. Someone's going to get 8-10".

[luvssnow_spokane]

Through 4AM Monday. Starts around 4PM Sunday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO trending slowly south...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you live in the Puget sound you have to root for the EURO, and hope it doesn't keep trending slowly south with each run. 

[Brennan]

Looks like a more solid deformation band will setup across southern BC later this afternoon/evening. Someone's going to get 8-10".

Can that be over whatcom county too please? PLEASE?

[Front Ranger]

EURO trending slowly south...

 

But overall showing more consistency than the other models.

 

Running only 2x day helps, of course.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Euro is slower, stronger, further north with low compared to GFS. Maybe not as cold, at least at first.

It still continues to trend south from previous runs. At this rate by the time it hits snow may be totally focused on Oregon ... Again... I am not liking the slowly sinking progression.

[Bryant]

You misunderstood my intent...and I always root for everyone here to score, except Tim. His location needs no rooting.

My apologies, in a sh*tty mood.

 

Probably not as sh*tty as this guy though...

 

http://i.imgur.com/4qGqtKIh.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right now I'd say this...

 

Seattle 1-3"

 

Olympia 2-4"

 

Kelso: 6"

 

PDX Metro: 3-6"

 

Salem: 2-4"

 

EUG: 1-3"

 

For "My Location" I am going with 6-10" right now...

[Jbolin]

I'm gonna take a page from Luvsnowseattle's playbook and say

 

**** This Winter, **** It To Hell

[seattleweatherguy]

Going to predict Portland will be the big winner

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm gonna take a page from Luvsnowseattle's playbook and say

 

**** This Winter, **** It To Hell

Just keepin it real... 

[HighlandExperience]

Right now I'd say this...

 

Seattle 1-3"

 

Olympia 2-4"

 

Kelso: 6"

 

PDX Metro: 3-6"

 

Salem: 2-4"

 

EUG: 1-3"

 

For "My Location" I am going with 6-10" right now...

Selfish.

[Jesse]

Selfish.

He doesn't control what happens.

[HighlandExperience]

Updated: Through 10PM Monday. Starts around 4PM Sunday. It also has a nice CZ/arctic front/deformation band look over King County at 10AM Monday. Go Euro!

Looks awesome for us

[Jbolin]

Going to predict Portland will be the big winner

Bold prediction but there are no winners in Portland

[HighlandExperience]

He doesn't control what happens.

Agreed but the Euro doesn't show that.

[Perturbed Member]

Right now I'd say this...

 

Seattle 1-3"

 

Olympia 2-4"

 

Kelso: 6"

 

PDX Metro: 3-6"

 

Salem: 2-4"

 

EUG: 1-3"

 

For "My Location" I am going with 6-10" right now...

 

 

ECMWF has 6-8 inches for SEA and 3-5 inches for PDX.  You think it is going to trend that much further south? 

 

Hopefully it doesn't trend any further south, would be pretty awful for Seattle to get screwed that bad.  We are only 48 hours out and all the models are now showing a similar track except the GFS which is even further south. 

[Jesse]

Bold prediction but there are no winners in Portland

Is this sort of thing really necessary?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Selfish.

 

If I am in the axis of heavy precip I will get a lot more than that...Not selfish just a fact. I had 20" with the March 2012 storm. 

 

If the axis of the precip is further west or north of me I will get a lot less...Just how it goes...

[TT-SEA]

Sun!

[umadbro]

Agreed but the Euro doesn't show that.

He's just going with the trend. And like it has all winter, it is trending South. Whether you believe it or not.

[Front Ranger]

Don't forget that a couple lows have actually had a last minute jog to the north in the final 24 hours this winter. 

 

The overall progression has seemed to trend them south from 2-4 days out, then correct north again at the last moment.

[HighlandExperience]

If I am in the axis of heavy precip I will get a lot more than that...Not selfish just a fact. I had 20" with the March 2012 storm.

 

If the axis of the precip is further west or north of me I will get a lot less...Just how it goes...

You live at 1000+ feet not worried about you.

[umadbro]

Is this sort of thing really necessary?

He's got a point. They did re-elect Kate Brown.

[Front Ranger]

He's got a point. They did re-elect Kate Brown.

 

I dated her in high school. Or at least someone named Kate Brown.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ECMWF has 6-8 inches for SEA and 3-5 inches for PDX.  You think it is going to trend that much further south? 

 

Hopefully it doesn't trend any further south, would be pretty awful for Seattle to get screwed that bad.  We are only 48 hours out and all the models are now showing a similar track except the GFS which is even further south. 

 

This prediction was not merely based on the EURO. I think the axis of heavy snow will be south of Seattle. A blend of the models would have it about PDX to Centralia. 

 

The GEM is decent for Seattle and the GFS and NAM are well south. Right now I am weighting the GEM and GFS most heavily. But not discounting the EURO solution. I think it is much more likely Seattle gets left out than PDX.

 

I will say though it would not shock me if PDX ended up 1-2 degrees to warm for sticking snow at the surface. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I agree... the pattern is very well established this winter with the continued southward setup. With a good couple days of model runs left I can easily see that Portland will be the big winner "moisture" wise (cold enough? Dunno). Based on very consistent and steady progression to move things south on each model run this is a good sign for fairly strong accuracy that a more southerly track will win out.

 

 As far as the Puget sound I say we get a little snow but less than 3 inches overall.  Some will see nothing (accept Tim, he is golden). 

[Perturbed Member]

Don't forget that a couple lows have actually had a last minute jog to the north in the final 24 hours this winter. 

 

The overall progression has seemed to trend them south from 2-4 days out, then correct north again at the last moment.

 

 

This was actually particularly true of the Jan 10th snow event for PDX. It trended south in the days leading up to it, but I remember the low actually coming in north of where it was modeled. In that case, it helped PDX because it put us right in the bullseye.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I dated her in high school. Or at least someone named Kate Brown.

 

Hopefully not this Kate Brown...

 

But I think I actually know who you are talking about. lol

[HighlandExperience]

ECMWF has 6-8 inches for SEA and 3-5 inches for PDX. You think it is going to trend that much further south?

 

Hopefully it doesn't trend any further south, would be pretty awful for Seattle to get screwed that bad. We are only 48 hours out and all the models are now showing a similar track except the GFS which is even further south.

This right here.

[Front Ranger]

This prediction was not merely based on the EURO. I think the axis of heavy snow will be south of Seattle. A blend of the models would have it about PDX to Centralia. 

 

The GEM is decent for Seattle and the GFS and NAM are well south. Right now I am weighting the GEM and GFS most heavily. But not discounting the EURO solution. I think it is much more likely Seattle gets left out than PDX.

 

I will say though it would not shock me if PDX ended up 1-2 degrees to warm for sticking snow at the surface.