February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[FroYoBro]

I believe this is a mistake.   

 

There will be no flash freeze.   First... the WRF has showed this several times this winter and it has not happened.   Much more importantly... the ECMWF shows mid to upper 30s on Monday and then warming up from there.  

 

Be careful about trusting the WRF to show the intrusion of cold air accurately.   It is almost always too aggressive.  

I knew you were going to reply of this with a 100% certainty. 

 

Your point is probably correct though.

[bainbridgekid]

00z NAM definitely significantly further North than the 18z through hour 45 (Sunday afternoon.)

 

Looks to bulls eye Portland to Kelso rather than Eugene to Salem.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I believe this is a mistake.   

 

There will be no flash freeze.   First... the WRF has showed this several times this winter and it has not happened.   Much more importantly... the ECMWF shows mid to upper 30s on Monday and then warming up from there.  

 

Be careful about trusting the WRF to show the intrusion of cold air accurately.   It is almost always too aggressive.  

 

Yeah flash freeze on February 6th, doubtful.

[Heavy Snow]

[bainbridgekid]

I believe this is a mistake.   

 

There will be no flash freeze.   First... the WRF has showed this several times this winter and it has not happened.   Much more importantly... the ECMWF shows mid to upper 30s on Monday and then warming up from there.  

 

Be careful about trusting the WRF to show the intrusion of cold air accurately.   It is almost always too aggressive.  

FWIW, I agree.

 

Lots of potential for heavy snow around Seattle, but this doesn't seem like a flash freeze setup. The only way I see Seattle avoid getting into the mid 30's Monday is if they have steady snow most of the day.

[FroYoBro]

The NAM looks fun for the Portland area. 

 

HEAVY SNOW.

[TT-SEA]

00Z NAM ticked a little southward compared to the 12Z run.

 

12Z run for Sunday evening:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2017020312/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

 

00Z run for the same time frame:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2017020400/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

[Perturbed Member]

00z NAM is showing what I believe is probably going to be the best possible scenario for PDX. Crazy snowfall rates.

[MossMan]

00z NAM definitely significantly further North than the 18z through hour 45 (Sunday afternoon.)

 

Looks to bulls eye Portland to Kelso rather than Eugene to Salem.

So you are saying significant north, Tim is saying south...

[Deweydog]

I am really impressed with the CAA the WRF is showing for Puget Sound Monday morning. Looks like a possible flash freeze event. Could be an awesome day Monday. With cold air entrenched right up to the Canadian border the cold will be able to flood in very quickly when the surface gradient becomes favorable. Certainly the most perfect looking setup yet this winter for the Seattle area to score.

Oh, Jim.

 

Please don't do this to yourself again.

[TT-SEA]

00z NAM is showing what I believe is probably going to be the best possible scenario for PDX. Crazy snowfall rates.

 

The ECMWF has overstated snow totals for most of the area all winter.   I am guessing it is doing the same this time... at least up here.

 

The wild card is the deformation zone immediately behind the low... which the NAM shows to be perfectly placed over Portland.   Do not discount the NAM. 

[FroYoBro]

The NAM shows me getting a foot. 

 

Would be crazy if the Portland area could pull off two perfect storms in one winter. 

[bainbridgekid]

So you are saying significant north, Tim is saying south...

It's significantly North of the 18z and a tick South of the 12z.

 

So we're both right.

[BLI snowman]

00z NAM is showing what I believe is probably going to be the best possible scenario for PDX. Crazy snowfall rates.

 

Yeah, pretty much want to see this run verify 100%.

[bainbridgekid]

Somebody's gonna get over a foot of snow out of this thing.

 

I want that somebody to be me.

[TT-SEA]

It's significantly North of the 18z and a tick South of the 12z.

 

So we're both right.

I only compare the good runs... when new data is is available.

[bainbridgekid]

The NAM looks fun for the Portland area. 

 

HEAVY SNOW.

Just a bit.

 

[MossMan]

Somebody's gonna get over a foot of snow out of this thing.

 

I want that somebody to be me.

It will be right over me, just like it always used to be!

[Front Ranger]

Oh, Jim.

 

Please don't do this to yourself again.

 

He's correct that right now, it appears to be the best setup for Seattle area snow yet this winter.

 

The ultra-conservative Seattle NWS is going with 1-3" three days out. That tells you something.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, pretty much want to see this run verify 100%.

 

You already had a historic snowstorm this winter.

 

I'm rooting for OLM to BLI to be the big winners this time. Even things out, make it a truly regional great. If Portland gets some snow too, that's cool.

[Front Ranger]

The ECMWF has overstated snow totals for most of the area all winter.   I am guessing it is doing the same this time... at least up here.

 

The wild card is the deformation zone immediately behind the low... which the NAM shows to be perfectly placed over Portland.   Do not discount the NAM. 

 

On the other hand, we've yet to see models have a real good handle on any of these setups more than 24 hours out. Still have to wait.

[BLI snowman]

You already had a historic snowstorm this winter.

 

I'm rooting for OLM to BLI to be the big winners this time. Even things out, make it a truly regional great. If Portland gets some snow too, that's cool.

 

Nothing wrong with us getting another one 

 

I think all of us down here are pulling for the Puget Sound folks. If we could control it, they'd get 4-6" while we got 12-16".

[Front Ranger]

Nothing wrong with us getting another one 

 

I think all of us down here are pulling for the Puget Sound folks. If we could control it, they'd get 4-6" while we got 12-16".

 

That would still result in a huge snowfall disparity for the winter. Reverse that, and everybody ends up with a fine winter.

[TT-SEA]

On the other hand, we've yet to see models have a real good handle on any of these setups more than 24 hours out. Still have to wait.

 

 

No... I will not wait!   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[FroYoBro]

That would still result in a huge snowfall disparity for the winter. Reverse that, and everybody ends up with a fine winter.

 

People want snow. That is ok. 

[Front Ranger]

If the Portland area did see another 10"+ snowfall, that would certainly put this winter in some rare territory. Maybe 1-2 other winters in the past 100 years have produced more than one snowstorm that big in a single winter?

[TT-SEA]

He's correct that right now, it appears to be the best setup for Seattle area snow yet this winter.

 

The ultra-conservative Seattle NWS is going with 1-3" three days out. That tells you something.

 

It is a good set-up for Seattle... still thinking a southward trend though.

[Front Ranger]

People want snow. That is ok. 

 

Some people have already got a lot of snow. I want those who haven't to get more. That is ok.

[BLI snowman]

That would still result in a huge snowfall disparity for the winter. Reverse that, and everybody ends up with a fine winter.

 

Like with income, I'm afraid snowfall equality is a purely idealistic notion. Sounds good on paper though!

 

I would say that any significant snow event for Seattle would put this firmly in the "fine" winter category, given the cold temperatures and previous light snowfalls that have occurred there already.

[FroYoBro]

Like with income, I'm afraid snowfall equality is a purely idealistic notion. Sounds good on paper though!

 

I would say that any significant snow event for Seattle would put this firmly in the "fine" winter category, given the cold temperatures and previous light snowfalls that have occurred there already.

 

Unlike income equality, we have a zero percent chance to change snowfall equality. 

[James Jones]

Some people have already got a lot of snow. I want those who haven't to get more. That is ok.

 

I thought you voted for Gary Johnson? Right now you're sounding like some ***** Bernie supporter. Let the rich get richer!

[Jesse]

Possibly. It's been snowing steadily since about 4 or 5 am. Nothing overly heavy, mostly 1/4 to 1/2" an hour rates.

Man, you keep getting the shaft this winter.

[Front Ranger]

Like with income, I'm afraid snowfall equality is a purely idealistic notion. Sounds good on paper though!

 

I would say that any significant snow event for Seattle would put this firmly in the "fine" winter category, given the cold temperatures and previous light snowfalls that have occurred there already.

 

There hasn't been any widespread, moderate/heavy snowfalls in the Puget Sound region yet this winter. A widespread 4-8"+ over the next 5 days would go a long way.

 

Portland south already has a really nice winter assured, and those north of the border are basically in that category as well, though their bar is higher.

[Bryant]

I see the models are still sh*t... next

[Front Ranger]

I thought you voted for Gary Johnson? Right now you're sounding like some ***** Bernie supporter. Let the rich get richer!

 

The rich have been getting richer the past 8 years....

 

Goddammit, this isn't politics!

[BLI snowman]

If the Portland area did see another 10"+ snowfall, that would certainly put this winter in some rare territory. Maybe 1-2 other winters in the past 100 years have produced more than one snowstorm that big in a single winter?

 

1968-69 and 1949-50, although the late January events in both years were spread out over several days. And then 1915-16 before that.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW, I agree.

 

Lots of potential for heavy snow around Seattle, but this doesn't seem like a flash freeze setup. The only way I see Seattle avoid getting into the mid 30's Monday is if they have steady snow most of the day.

I dunno. We will have a setup with a lot of low level cold just north of us and backwash northerly winds behind a departing low. It might be colder than you think.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[HighlandExperience]

The crappy rpm shows no snow for Seattle. Wtf