February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Yep it was the night of Nov 26th/morning of Nov 27th; I worked at UVic at the time and that's the only time I can remember UVic being closed due to snow. They won't close unless there's more than a foot of snow in the night before they have time to plow. I was visiting my parents up at Nanoose at the time so I wasn't keen on driving down for the Monday and I was pretty happy to hear that.

 

I don't remember it being predicted at all, and Victoria was largely a mix of rain/snow the weekend before it while other areas like the Lower Mainland and East Vancouver Island got all snow. It was pretty clear something crazy was going on when I checked the radar that evening, there was a narrow intense band of precipitation running down the Juan de Fuca slamming directly into the southern tip of the island; it looked exactly like the snow bands you'd see running up Lake Ontario or Erie. Some parts of the city got over a foot of snow in only a few hours. The next day I remember a weaker similar thing happened up in Nanoose with the cold northwest flow triggering Strait-effect snow down the Strait of Georgia. That was the first time I'd ever seen Strait-effect with N/NW winds, normally it only gets kicked up with E or NE winds and orographic help from the terrain.

I have that event as one of the best of my lifetime...and I'm 40. That was one amazing setup.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Just how tilted that front becomes will be important to watch, push it too far and cyclogenisis could rage and bring the low right into Vancouver Island; not far enough and it will be weaker and become another Oregon special. Doesn't look like a very stable or predictable pattern, even 48 hours out

[BLI snowman]

Interesting that both the NAM and ECMWF show a 16" bullseye. Euro has it as Longview and NAM has it as Corvallis.

[HighlandExperience]

Having both the Euro and Gem going further north should make western wa posters feel better.

[seattleweatherguy]

So which model to trust or none? Usually they say euro

[BLI snowman]

The Euro also disagrees with the operational GFS in showing an actual isothermal situation with dead gradients wherever the band stalls.

 

Encouraging to have the Euro on that side of things.

[umadbro]

So which model to trust or none? Usually they say euro

Usually it is the Euro. Not this year though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A good old model showdown!!! Going to be fun to watch in real time. We need DJ to post about the WV loop!

[HighlandExperience]

Through Monday morning...

 

Thanks for posting. Would love too see thru Wednesday !

[snow_wizard]

The Euro is absolutely insane for this area. Wow!

 

I'm confident we will at least see some snow now.

[snow_wizard]

Absolutely incredible how much wetter the ECMWF is than the GFS. Thank goodness the ECMWF has the best skill at this time frame.

[TT-SEA]

Thanks for posting. Would love too see thru Wednesday !

Not much on Tuesday and Wednesday.

[snow_wizard]

Certainly chillier than I was expecting tonight. Nice to see the cold air sticking around.

[TT-SEA]

About 2.5 inches on the ground here... still snowing.

 

My sons were out and about with friends tonight and they reported about 5 inches of snow on the east side of North Bend and about 700 feet lower than our house.   

 

About 2-3 inches in downtown North Bend... farther away from the outflow.   And it was snowing fairly hard all over.  

[HighlandExperience]

Absolutely incredible how much wetter the ECMWF is than the GFS. Thank goodness the ECMWF has the best skill at this time frame.

That makes me very happy. Much prefer the Euro on our side. Even with this track Portland people should be happy. They still get snow. Just not as much as they hoped for.

[Dave]

Absolutely incredible how much wetter the ECMWF is than the GFS. Thank goodness the ECMWF has the best skill at this time frame.

There is a very noticeable hole in the map for the central/southern valley.  I'm ok with it, but disappointed.  Hopefully, the swamp and nearby areas get buried as they are way overdue.

[snow_wizard]

This is the total through Tuesday afternoon on the ECMWF. Shows a foot here.

[HighlandExperience]

And the NAM! Puget Sound folks should feel fairly optimistic after these runs.

I could really see the bulls eye setting up over centralia. Accounting for a last minute jog north tommorow.

[HighlandExperience]

This is the total through Tuesday afternoon on the ECMWF. Shows a foot here.

Wow

[snow_wizard]

About 2.5 inches on the ground here... still snowing.

 

My sons were out and about with friends tonight and they reported about 5 inches of snow on the east side of North Bend and about 700 feet lower than our house.   

 

About 2-3 inches in downtown North Bend... farther away from the outflow.   And it was snowing fairly hard all over.

Nice to see the cold hanging in so well around the edges.

[snow_wizard]

Gotta love this look for King County.

Yeah....a nice little bonus round after the main snow band moves through.

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah....a nice little bonus round after the main snow band moves through.

What time Sunday you think snow starts? I'll feel pretty good if tommorow morning run shows the same solutions.

[snow_wizard]

Besides the snow...the cold with this thing is looking a bit more impressive too. Could be a nice event.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

This is the total through Tuesday afternoon on the ECMWF. Shows a foot here.

 

If that comes to pass that hole in the north sound area may be the last place in the PNW 5+ years separated from a major snowstorm.

[snow_wizard]

What time Sunday you think snow starts? I'll feel pretty good if tommorow morning run shows the same solutions.

If we have good precip intensity it could turn to snow by Sunday evening. Hard to say at this point.

[TT-SEA]

What time Sunday you think snow starts? I'll feel pretty good if tommorow morning run shows the same solutions.

 

There is solid snow shown from Seattle southward between 10 a.m. - 4 p.m. on Sunday per the 00Z ECMWF.

 

[snow_wizard]

If that comes to pass that hole in the north sound area may be the last place in the PNW 5+ years separated from a major snowstorm.

A very tough call whether there will be a screw zone with this or not.

[snow_wizard]

So we got a good looking 00z Euro, GEM, and WRF. NAM went slightly North when compared to 18z. GFS is neither here nor there.

 

At the risk of jynxing it, I really like Puget Sound's odds.

Even the GFS based WRF was decent for snowfall.

[HighlandExperience]

There is solid snow shown from Seattle southward between 10 a.m. - 4 p.m. on Sunday per the 00Z ECMWF.

 

Thanks

[luvssnow_spokane]

What did I miss?? was out with family and have not even looked...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

A very tough call whether there will be a screw zone with this or not.

 

None of tonight's solutions didn't put a screw zone over the north sound; albeit with some minor Tuesday-Wednesday carrots on the GFS. There's still lots of room for change, but there's a good chance it ends up being the last area to not receive a major snowstorm in over 5 years. I suppose I wouldn't mind that if it meant the south/central sound got slammed.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Why is it called a event?

[HighlandExperience]

What did I miss?? was out with family and have not even looked...

Your location looks close to 10 inches on both Euro and Gem

[Heavy Snow]

What did I miss?? was out with family and have not even looked...

You get clobbered on the 00z EURO.

[Perturbed Member]

Euro has 850mb temps that are above freezing PDX south at least at hour 48-54 which is when a lot of the precip happens. Pretty unfortunate.

[Heavy Snow]

Euro has 850mb temps that are above freezing PDX south at least at hour 48-54 which is when a lot of the precip happens. Pretty unfortunate.

Yeah but it still shows PDX getting 5 inches. It also trended better than the earlier 12z run today. Most models have below freezing 850mb temps during the same time period. It's going to be close but I've had my fair share of snow this Winter, go big or go home is what I want.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Your location looks close to 10 inches on both Euro and Gem

I just pissed myself... yes!!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Well the evening snow was fun, but it clearly wasn't going to last long. You can't fight warming upper levels forever, even with steady N surface winds we've transitioned into 33F rain/sleet.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Its over...

[snow_wizard]

Well the evening snow was fun, but it clearly wasn't going to last long. You can't fight warming upper levels forever, even with steady N surface winds we've transitioned into 33F rain/sleet.

Your "warm" window should be quite short lived.