February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

We missed you!

 

In other news the Portland AFD mentioned the possibility of a quick couple inches Sunday night...

 

They need to shut the hell up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meanwhile NWS going with highs around 50 Sunday in the Willamette Valley...

[stuffradio]

This forum is too much sometimes.

[HighlandExperience]

Meanwhile NWS going with highs around 50 Sunday in the Willamette Valley...

Depending on low placement that is realistic

[Kayla]

They need to shut the hell up.

 

Seeing that they are going with 45/35 Sunday/Sunday night I think you are all safe for now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Depending on low placement that is realistic

 

Not if this verifies

 

[MossMan]

Newest member!

[Kayla]

Meanwhile NWS going with highs around 50 Sunday in the Willamette Valley...

 

Great sign for a major event...

[HighlandExperience]

Not if this verifies

 

18z nam Very doubtful.

[Bryant]

Go to the mountain west forum....emotions seem to be checked at the door over there.

Maybe because people over there see a lot more snow? You were all worked up and worried a couple months ago about snow at your house.

[Bryant]

This forum is too much sometimes.

How much snow you see today?

[crf450ish]

Maybe because people over there see a lot more snow? You were all worked up and worried a couple months ago about snow at your house.

Your right, I was. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Tenochtitlan]

How are snow chances looking in Bellingham later today and tonight? It's right above freezing here and raining, pretty frustrating (though walking in the slush is satisfying in its own way).

[Jesse]

One thing all the models seem to agree on is a shot at 60 degrees around Valentine's Day.

[MossMan]

Muddy dogs today!! My mud is half thawed half frozen still with rain on top equals a mud fest!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One thing all the models seem to agree on is a shot at 60 degrees around Valentine's Day.

 

For the ladies in our lives...

[Perturbed Member]

18z NAVGEM is a tad further south. Cold air does come in quite aggressively from the NW as the low departs. Pretty impressive precip over the central Willamette valley. WA gets pretty cool quickly and still gets plenty of precip from the low coming down BC. Looks snowy there. My gut feeling is that you guys are going to get plenty of precip up there even with the more southern tracks, the setup seems to favor it.

[DareDuck]

I'm back!!!

Still longer than most who said they were taking a break

[DareDuck]

Nothing like Kevin, who hyped mythical weather events to draw web traffic to his site.

Or the death threats. Or taking on the FBI. He's a psycho.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Finally got out of the stinking Olympic snow shadow in Victoria. We may yet make an inch of accumulation today with the band moving through now, though it's a less ideal time for accumulation with the late day temperatures. Non-shadowed parts of Greater Victoria only a short distance north did quite a bit better earlier, seems more balanced now.

[TT-SEA]

Snowed all day even down to the valley floor out here... pretty common in this set-up with an east wind persistenting.

 

Live North Bend streaming cam...

 

http://146.129.248.180/northbend.html

 

You can see the wind still blowing pretty hard on the live stream.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's really dumping now in the primary deformation band, temperature is now down to about 32F. The low on Sunday needs to bomb out and go north to crush the Puget Sound, but if this low wants to hang around further south for longer I wouldn't mind , this city has been screwed so many times before.

[luminen]

Got about 3" where I work in SE Burnaby and 3-4" here in North Vancouver.  Still snowing.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Took this shot a little earlier, it's now covering the trees / treated road surfaces, though probably pretty slushy. Still coming down at a decent clip now, but the band is making its way north.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3819_zps4zkorzl7.jpg

[FroYoBro]

PDX is still sitting at 32 with more rain moving in. 

[FroYoBro]

Heavy rain and 35 degrees here.

 

It has been a great winter, but there sure has been a lot of cold, cold rain in the Portland area in these setups. 

[bainbridgekid]

Heavy rain and 35 degrees here.

 

It has been a great winter, but there sure has been a lot of cold, cold rain in the Portland area in these setups. 

In cold snowy Winters, there also tend to be a lot of cold, almost snowy periods.

[ShawniganLake]

5.25" so far here. 31F with the wind still from the north.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the nightmare may finally be coming to an end for the Puget Sound region. The last few ECMWF runs have been fantastic and the GFS has been fine also. Looking like a solid cold shot on Monday to go along with the snow.

[seattleweatherguy]

Looks like the nightmare may finally be coming to an end for the Puget Sound region. The last few ECMWF runs have been fantastic and the GFS has been fine also. Looking like a solid cold shot on Monday to go along with the snow.

 

Your telling me there is a chance......yeah!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

5.25" so far here. 31F with the wind still from the north.

 

You may end up doing better than anywhere else on the island. You were far enough north to avoid the shadowing this morning but far enough south to take a direct hit from the main band this evening. Still under a north wind here, sitting at 32F with moderate snow, but maybe only 1" of compact snow on the ground.

[FroYoBro]

5.25" so far here. 31F with the wind still from the north.

 

Looks like the nightmare may finally be coming to an end for the Puget Sound region. The last few ECMWF runs have been fantastic and the GFS has been fine also. Looking like a solid cold shot on Monday to go along with the snow.

 

Your telling me there is a chance......yeah!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z NAM running!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the 00z NAM through 32 hours I think the nexus of heaviest snow will be between Salem and Portland or about 20-30 miles north of the 18z....Just a prediction.

[bainbridgekid]

00z NAM running!

I'm worried my refresh button will be broken by Monday night.

 

That or it may catch fire.

[ShawniganLake]

You may end up doing better than anywhere else on the island. You were far enough north to avoid the shadowing this morning but far enough south to take a direct hit from the main band this evening. Still under a north wind here, sitting at 32F with moderate snow, but maybe only 1" of compact snow on the ground.

Possibly. It's been snowing steadily since about 4 or 5 am. Nothing overly heavy, mostly 1/4 to 1/2" an hour rates.

[snow_wizard]

I am really impressed with the CAA the WRF is showing for Puget Sound Monday morning. Looks like a possible flash freeze event. Could be an awesome day Monday. With cold air entrenched right up to the Canadian border the cold will be able to flood in very quickly when the surface gradient becomes favorable. Certainly the most perfect looking setup yet this winter for the Seattle area to score.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I have never seen the NAM run so slow. lol

[TT-SEA]

I am really impressed with the CAA the WRF is showing for Puget Sound Monday morning. Looks like a possible flash freeze event. Could be an awesome day Monday. With cold air entrenched right up to the Canadian border the cold will be able to flood in very quickly when the surface gradient becomes favorable. Certainly the most perfect looking setup yet this winter for the Seattle area to score.

 

I believe this is a mistake.   

 

There will be no flash freeze.   First... the WRF has showed this several times this winter and it has not happened.   Much more importantly... the ECMWF shows mid to upper 30s on Monday and then warming up from there.  

 

Be careful about trusting the WRF to show the intrusion of cold air accurately.   It is almost always too aggressive.