February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Perturbed Member]

WRF shows the warmer nose moving right up to King County tomorrow night.

 

Northward trend is no longer our friend.  This is noticeably warmer tomorrow night than the 12Z WRF.  

 

Nasty 

[TT-SEA]

I know from personal experience this winter not to trust the cold air intrusion strength and speed shown on the WRF.   Its almost always too aggressive south of Mt Vernon.   

[Brennan]

So the warm nosw is pushing through King County yet precip doesn't really make it to WHATCOM COUNTY?... where this bullseye gonna be Tim?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Not going to matter with the pressure gradient we have.

Yep my exactly...

[TT-SEA]

Not sure how this lines up with previous runs... seems like less snow than the 12Z run through Monday morning.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

So the warm nosw is pushing through King County yet precip doesn't really make it to WHATCOM COUNTY?... where this bullseye gonna be Tim?

His house. . Central sound may be the bulls eye as it looks now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/ww_snow24.36.0000.gif

[Front Ranger]

I know from personal experience this winter not to trust the cold air intrusion strength and speed shown on the WRF.   Its almost always too aggressive south of Mt Vernon.   

 

Yes, but as I pointed out earlier, this is different than any previous setup this winter.

[TT-SEA]

Yes, but as I pointed out earlier, this is different than any previous setup this winter.

They are all different. Seen it happen several times this winter alone.

[HighlandExperience]

His house. . Central sound may be the bulls eye as it looks now.

Tacoma will be bulls eye with 15 inches

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like the 0z GFS has gone north, still sucks big time for Victoria with heavy snow to both the north and south tomorrow, but if it shifts just a little further north we might eke out a trace~1/2" tomorrow night. I wouldn't be too concerned about the warming if you have heavy precipitation, the east Puget Sound still looks like the best place to be.

[TT-SEA]

So the warm nosw is pushing through King County yet precip doesn't really make it to WHATCOM COUNTY?... where this bullseye gonna be Tim?

Kitsap County down through Olympia and Chehalis probably.

[BLI snowman]

I've made peace with the fact that I probably won't see much of anything in regards to accumulation tomorrow.

We'll get our's someday.

[Front Ranger]

They are all different. Seen it happen several times this winter alone.

 

Which one had a potent low passing to the south like this one?

[HighlandExperience]

GEM shows even more snow than the morning run. 10+ inches right over King county. Of course it's over doing it, but good to see!

 

Bulls eye right over Puyallup.

[Jesse]

We'll get our's someday.

January 10-11 makes up for it for sure. Glad to see people to the north getting a shot.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WRF gives PDX 0

[seattleweatherguy]

If I can get 1 to 3 inches as the weather app says I'd be happy

[MikeInEverett]

What is everyone's weather app saying?

[MossMan]

Starting to look like a possible major puget sound snow event. The biggest and deepest snow storms here have been marginal temp wise.

This...exactly! November 2006 featured over 24hrs straight of the heaviest wet snow I had ever experienced...temp stayed right between 32 and 33 with so much accumulation that hundreds of trees came down in my area causing a nearly 4 day power outage.

[seattleweatherguy]

Actually now mine says 3 to 5

[HighlandExperience]

WRF shows close to 8 inches over King County. Might be best run yet. Higher amounts towards snowwizard.

[Lisa0527]

Thunder snow in Vancouver!

[Perturbed Member]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/or_snow24.36.0000.gifWell it was fun while it lasted

[GHweatherChris]

WRF shows close to 8 inches over King County. Might be best run yet.

As long as it shows snow over the ocean then things are good for inland.

[MossMan]

WRF shows close to 8 inches over King County. Might be best run yet.

One tiny dot of purple right over my house!!

[luminen]

Thunder snow in Vancouver!

 

Is that what that was?

 

Snowing pretty heavily here now.

[MossMan]

Tim looks to get buried looking at the map posted above!

[Perturbed Member]

WRF 00z soundings for PDX pretty much say enjoy your 34-36F rain. Not really even close to a snow sounding anymore. Only goes isothermal as the back end of the front is going through. No precip left. 

[MossMan]

PuyallupSwampJon might even come back to the forum and be posting pics of his snowpeople building skills!

[Guest Sounder]

I've got a feeling that Jim is going to be by far the biggest winner with this. Poor guy deserves it, that's for sure.

[Phil]

18z models are the worst of all of them. You know better.

This is just wx-forum mythology. There's no statistically significant difference in skill scores between the 18z suite and the 00z suite.

[TT-SEA]

Tim looks to get buried looking at the map posted above!

 

I am more than willing to share if you can figure out how to make that happen.  

[TT-SEA]

I've got a feeling that Jim is going to be by far the biggest winner with this. Poor guy deserves it, that's for sure.

 

 

 

Based on your previous posts... I believe this might be patronizing.  

 

I suspect the infamous warm nose might be a problem for his area... maybe even here as well.     We have seen plenty of wonderful snowfall maps this winter.  

[MossMan]

I am more than willing to share if you can figure out how to make that happen.

Hmmm...where there is a will, there's a way!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Based on your previous posts... I believe this might be patronizing.

 

I suspect the infamous warm nose might be a problem for his area... maybe even here as well. We have seen plenty of wonderful snowfall maps this winter.

100% agree!

[MossMan]

Quite breezy this evening!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Phil]

It will snow in Seattle, don't get me wrong,

 

And it is starting to trend like a major event. The only thing that could probably redeem tomorrow would be a Patriots victory.

No. No no no no no.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/or_snow48.60.0000.gif