March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

Wow!

 

850s at -10 over Seattle at hour 108 now. Looks like almost no break between the two cold periods now. An historic cold wave is looking more likely all the time.

This week could be the cherry on top of an amazing winter

[snow_wizard]

The blocking is just incredible!

[MossMan]

IMG_0613.PNG

Wow!

And in other news it's down to 35 here and mostly cloudy.

[snow_wizard]

This week could be the cherry on top of an amazing winter

Looks like a good situation for a snow event somewhere along the line too. It would be very rare to have an abnormally snowy Feb and Mar in the same year, but we could easily pull it off. Combined with the cold Dec / Jan this winter is way on the right track. We are due for one where Seattle is the big winner.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Details will change but lots of potential.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

WRF has sucked bad recently though

 

The 12z run of it was showing nearly 8" of snow here now it shows 0-T for precipitation of any time. It has had some major busts but I would tend to think the accuracy would have to be a little better within 12 hours of the event. This sort of shadowing/disorganized deformation band is what I've been worried about; some of the coastal areas could end up doing quite well and it's a pretty safe bet for places north of Bellingham. Tomorrow night could still turn out decent in the East Sound as well, but the morning has a high chance of being a non-event; let's hope the GFS forecast wins out.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017030500/images_d3/wa_pcp24.24.0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

Doesn't get much better than this for lowland snow. What a majestic setup!

[snow_wizard]

Vodka cold over southern BC next weekend. Incredible tracking low for Seattle snowfall followed by a blast. Wow!

[HighlandExperience]

Vodka cold over southern BC next weekend. Incredible tracking low for Seattle snowfall followed by a blast. Wow!

Let's not get carried away. Hope we can score an appetizer over the next three days.

[snow_wizard]

Let's not get carried away. Hope we can score an appetizer over the next three days.

This run is NUTS. 850s drop to -10 two separate times in the next week. The block is still amazing a week from now.

[snow_wizard]

I can't wait to see what the WRF spits out for hour 108 through 180.

[HighlandExperience]

This run is NUTS. 850s drop to -10 two separate times in the next week. The block is still amazing a week from now.

 

If we can score snowfall in the next 3-4 days ill feel more confident about the later event.

[snow_wizard]

If we can score snowfall in the next 3-4 days ill feel more confident about the later event.

The WRF really likes tomorrows evening. That model has been horrible with precip amounts in these cases though. I still think tonight has a good shot.

[snow_wizard]

Normally this is the time of year I lose interest in the weather for a while. Not this year obviously.

 

I would love to see a cold / snowy March followed by a cool / dry spring with lots of sunshine and frosty nights. Bare trees until mid April?

[FroYoBro]

Normally this is the time of year I lose interest in the weather for a while. Not this year obviously.

 

I would love to see a cold / snowy March followed by a cool / dry spring with lots of sunshine and frosty nights. Bare trees until mid April?

 

I'm hoping for a few volcanic eruptions. Maybe all plants will die for like 50 years.  

[wxmet]

00z GFS looks pretty incredible for next weekend. Too bad we're not looking at this inside 48 hours. High pressure to the north keeping cold air in place and the low tracking to south with the best 700mb frontogenetical forcing to the north and west of the surface low is a prime setup for significant snowfall.

[epiceast]

Doesn't get much better than this for lowland snow. What a majestic setup!

Is it just me or is this  a major wet snowmaker for Western Montana? Maybe even rain in the valleys, but at least our spring snowpack will be good.

[snow_wizard]

00z GFS looks pretty incredible for next weekend. Too bad we're not looking at this inside 48 hours. High pressure to the north keeping cold air in place and the low tracking to south with the best 700mb frontogenetical forcing to the north and west of the surface low is a prime setup for significant snowfall.

One nice snow for Portland and then one for Seattle. Let it be so!

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the GFS scenario at hour 150 / 156 would be a sure major snow maker for Seattle. Absolute textbook.

[wxmet]

FWIW the GFS scenario at hour 150 / 156 would be a sure major snow maker for Seattle. Absolute textbook.

Looks backed with Fraser River Outflow. Pretty windy through the Sound.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030500/gfs_mslp_wind_nwus_27.png

[snow_wizard]

Looks backed with Fraser River Outflow. Pretty windy through the Sound.

 

Yup. Backwash behind the departing low would bring the cold air right down the Sound. I want this run to verify.

[epiceast]

Yup. Backwash behind the departing low would bring the cold air right down the Sound. I want this run to verify.

Parade of lows through central idaho. Just what the doctor ordered. 1"+ of qpf here, almost all of it would be snow except right after sun breaks during the day.

[epiceast]

Truly a historic drool worthy run. Somebody post GFS snow map I want to see how much of 10:1 snow it thinks I will get.

[HighlandExperience]

Looks decent. Maybe 2-4 inches for east puget sound area.

 

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Looks decent. Maybe 2-4 inches for east puget sound area.

 

Blue right around my house nice

 

[ShawniganLake]

Wow. The mean drops below -12

 

[snow_wizard]

Please vote in the contest poll to determine who gets a free year of WeatherBell.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1456-the-model-contest-winter-of-2016-17

 

How long do we have?  What are the rules on voting for yourself?

[snow_wizard]

Wow. The mean drops below -12

 

IMG_0614.PNG

 

Even SEA drops to -10 on the mean.  Wowwwww!

 

The warm interlude is totally gone now.   This could easily be historic by a number of measures.

[epiceast]

Even SEA drops to -10 on the mean.  Wowwwww!

 

The warm interlude is totally gone now.   This could easily be historic by a number of measures.

Could be the Buzzer shot of the winter

[TT-SEA]

Couple sprinkles here... precip winding down. Snow advisory seems a little excessive tonight... at least in my area.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Upper levels must have really warmed up tonight. Early today the rain was nearly all sloppy snow. Now under heavy rain here with not a single splat. It is also colder here at the surface but not a single snowflake 100% rain all the way up to 650ft here tonight. Significant upper level warmth in place compared to this afternoon.

[Timmy]

Upper levels must have really warmed up tonight. Early today the rain was nearly all sloppy snow. Now under heavy rain here with not a single splat. It is also colder here at the surface but not a single snowflake 100% rain all the way up to 650ft here tonight. Significant upper level warmth in place compared to this afternoon.

Agreed. Dusting this morning and some this afternoon. So far tonight it has been a mix even up here

[Jesse]

Agreed. Dusting this morning and some this afternoon. So far tonight it has been a mix even up here

Just more of a southerly component in the lower to mid levels. The upper atmosphere is actually in the process of cooling down atm.

[epiceast]

00z Canadian seems to be 100 miles to the north of GFS.

[MossMan]

Rain! 36!

[HighlandExperience]

Upper levels must have really warmed up tonight. Early today the rain was nearly all sloppy snow. Now under heavy rain here with not a single splat. It is also colder here at the surface but not a single snowflake 100% rain all the way up to 650ft here tonight. Significant upper level warmth in place compared to this afternoon.

925 temps close to 0, and 850 right around -4,

 

Not expecting much tonight. Hopefully Sunday night though. Will see. Would be happy to see flakes in the air!

[Bryant]

Any word on the euro?

[epiceast]

Any word on the euro?

Looks a lot like GEM to me.

[Timmy]

Back to snow here

[BLI snowman]

Any word on the euro?

 

Not nearly as good as the 12z or the GFS. Still a lot of potential though.