March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Back to waiting longer for the models to come out...

 

NAM starts at 6:45 a.m. & p.m.

 

GFS starts at 8:30 a.m. & p.m.

 

ECMWF starts at 11 a.m. & p.m. (on WeatherBell)

 

The full ECMWF run updates here at exactly 11:56 a.m. & p.m.

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa?time=2017031200,0,2017031200&parameter=Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa&area=North%20America

[crf450ish]

Regarding Friday March 10, 2017,

 

Spokane saw temperatures higher than 50 degrees since Nov. 26, 2016.

 

The average high for March 10 is 47 degrees, according to the National Weather Service. Friday, it was much warmer than that, with the official high reaching 54 degrees at the airport. Spokane Felts Field was even warmer, with the official high there 58.

 

NWS officials said Spokane usually reaches its first 50 degree day on Feb. 13. In 2016, it happened on Feb. 9.

 

This year's long wait to see 50 degrees wasn't even close to the record, thankfully. The latest in the year that it took us to get to 50 was in 1975 when we had to wait until April 10.

[crf450ish]

It was incredible. Deep snow, lots of clear / cold weather with snow on the ground, multiple snow events, days on end of temps below freezing. Best month I've seen here and it was freeking November!

Yeah but we are all aware of the later ramifications of a front loaded winter...

[TT-SEA]

Interesting to note that most of the Earth still has positive SSTAs...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[Phil]

Interesting to note that most of the Earth still has positive SSTAs...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Very common following super-niños. Heat in the upper ocean mixing layer usually takes a few years to radiate out, especially without a strong Niña response this go around.

[TT-SEA]

Very common following super-niños. Heat in the upper ocean mixing layer usually takes a few years to radiate out, especially without a strong Niña response this go around.

 

 

Good to know... thanks.

[MossMan]

48 feels like a heatwave! Might actually go out and wash 2 months of grime of my truck since it's actually not raining!

[Phil]

About to be not bitter about winter.

I'll be bitter if you get 30" while I'm stuck with a sidewinder foot.

[snow_wizard]

Very common following super-niños. Heat in the upper ocean mixing layer usually takes a few years to radiate out, especially without a strong Niña response this go around.

Kind of nice to get all of this heat release over with quickly. Should be a huge crash somewhere along the line.

[Jesse]

When will this endless torching end

[Phil]

[MossMan]

When will this endless torching end

2-3yrs from now when we are back to a Nina.

[dairyd]

Make the rain stop!! Anyone else seeing the dirty ridge popping up on the NAM, UKMET, and GEM this week?  Some very high temps up/down the west coast (80's in central valley Calif.) suggest high pressure begets high pressure and maybe we can benefit from both declining epo and building heights. 

[WeatherArchive]

Make the rain stop!! Anyone else seeing the dirty ridge popping up on the NAM, UKMET, and GEM this week?  Some very high temps up/down the west coast (80's in central valley Calif.) suggest high pressure begets high pressure and maybe we can benefit from both declining epo and building heights. 

 

How would be benefit? Wouldn't that just make it hot up and down the whole coast?  Okay not hot but much warmer then relative average?

[Jesse]

Make the rain stop!! Anyone else seeing the dirty ridge popping up on the NAM, UKMET, and GEM this week?  Some very high temps up/down the west coast (80's in central valley Calif.) suggest high pressure begets high pressure and maybe we can benefit from both declining epo and building heights. 

 

Hopefully we can get back into the longwave troughing position eventually. The Euro shows some hope.

[WeatherArchive]

Looks like the sun is really dead this time. x-ray flux down to A0.0 and the radio flux down to 70. That's getting into rock bottom territory.

Hi.  I've been keeping track at Spaceweather.com which today's suncount is a big fat 0.  16 days of sunspot less sun.  23% so far last year was 9%.  The following years were high on sunspot counts.

 

What I don't get is why are we having all this heat instead of continued cool weather or cold weather even?  Lower sunspots should be a death sentences for these ridges.  Unless the EPO or whatever it's called is messed up?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This week looks pretty wet.

[snow_wizard]

2-3yrs from now when we are back to a Nina.

I think we will be in an overall cold regime for the next 3 years or so. There's a good chance of a Nino near the bottom of the solar min like we had in 2009-10, and then probably a few cold Nina years. We should be good to see some good winters.

[snow_wizard]

Hi.  I've been keeping track at Spaceweather.com which today's suncount is a big fat 0.  16 days of sunspot less sun.  23% so far last year was 9%.  The following years were high on sunspot counts.

 

What I don't get is why are we having all this heat instead of continued cool weather or cold weather even?  Lower sunspots should be a death sentences for these ridges.  Unless the EPO or whatever it's called is messed up?

It's only been warm for less than a week. Even the coldest years have mild interludes.

 

I assume you are from the NW?

[Jesse]

I think we will be in an overall cold regime for the next 3 years or so. There's a good chance of a Nino near the bottom of the solar min like we had in 2009-10, and then probably a few cold Nina years. We should be good to see some good winters.

 

This makes November-March mossman very happy, but April-October mossman very sad.

[snow_wizard]

This makes November-March mossman very happy, but April-October mossman very sad.

No matter how you slice it we are due for a number of very cool summers. It will be interesting if the huge pattern shakeup is able to deliver cool summers like we used to have.

 

I'm hoping for a spring / summer with a lot of 140W ridging. We can have delightful weather with that.

[Jesse]

No matter how you slice it we are due for a number of very cool summers. It will be interesting if the huge pattern shakeup is able to deliver cool summers like we used to have.

 

I'm hoping for a spring / summer with a lot of 140W ridging. We can have delightful weather with that.

I completely agree. Would be perfect.

[Guest happ]

snow_wizard, on 12 Mar 2017 - 12:51 PM, said:

No matter how you slice it we are due for a number of very cool summers. It will be interesting if the huge pattern shakeup is able to deliver cool summers like we used to have.

 

I'm hoping for a spring / summer with a lot of 140W ridging. We can have delightful weather with that.

 

Yes good for you but hot for us down here

[snow_wizard]

Yeah but we are all aware of the later ramifications of a front loaded winter...

That was so exceptional I couldn't have cared less. We had the coldest Nov/Dec combo ever recorded that season.

 

In general I like to see it hold off though.

[James Jones]

It's only been warm for less than a week. Even the coldest years have mild interludes.

 

I assume you are from the NW?

 

Yeah, odd comment considering how cold the last 4 months have been.

[dairyd]

 

Make the rain stop!! Anyone else seeing the dirty ridge popping up on the NAM, UKMET, and GEM this week?  Some very high temps up/down the west coast (80's in central valley Calif.) suggest high pressure begets high pressure and maybe we can benefit from both declining epo and building heights. 

 

How would be benefit? Wouldn't that just make it hot up and down the whole coast?  Okay not hot but much warmer then relative average?

 

Warm air builds up the ridge.  If it is stubborn enough and warm enough it can push north.  It is hard to get warm and dry here without a strong California ridge.  That there are warm temps so early in March (I used to live there) coincide with a strong Calif. ridge building this week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hoping for a nice cool summer, i will take a mild September though. Hosting an outdoor wedding on my property that month.

[dairyd]

Hi.  I've been keeping track at Spaceweather.com which today's suncount is a big fat 0.  16 days of sunspot less sun.  23% so far last year was 9%.  The following years were high on sunspot counts.

 

What I don't get is why are we having all this heat instead of continued cool weather or cold weather even?  Lower sunspots should be a death sentences for these ridges.  Unless the EPO or whatever it's called is messed up?

 

Not sure what heat you are talking about, running roughly 1/3 of the heat units and the grass is just starting to green up.  Maybe you need to recalibrate?

 

 

[Jesse]

Today should pretty easily be the warmest day of the season so far. I would guess 63-ish at PDX by 5pm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a lot of hope for nice weather over the next few weeks.

[BLI snowman]

This week looks pretty wet.

Make-up time for today.

[Jesse]

Not a lot of hope for nice weather over the next few weeks.

 

Today was pretty nice. So was Friday.

 

By mid-March, it usually isn't hard to sneak in a few sunny 60 degrees days, even in an "active" pattern.

[Jesse]

Could see a very mild low on Monday. Possibly our first 50+ minimum of the year.

[wx_statman]

Nice to finally see some spring weather. 

[Timmy Supercell]

It does not feel like March. Whatever it feels like, feels GREAT!!!

 

Also went from freezing fog and upper 20's earlier, to this wonderful afternoon. High 63 degrees today. I hope the frogs broke free of their ice cubes.

[TT-SEA]

Took advantage of a mostly dry afternoon to get out and start the yard clean up and tree pruning process.   Feels good to make some progress finally... although the models are downright depressing for the next week now.   It is so incredibly wet out there.  

[Jesse]

It does not feel like March. Whatever it feels like, feels GREAT!!!

 

Also went from freezing fog and upper 20's earlier, to this wonderful afternoon. High 63 degrees today. I hope the frogs broke free of their ice cubes.

That's pretty typical March fare for you.

[FroYoBro]

Beautiful day. Shot baskets outside for the first time in months. 

[Jesse]

Beautiful day. Shot baskets outside for the first time in months.

Target practice?

[Timmy Supercell]

That's pretty typical March fare for you.

 

Maybe the spread from low-high is typical but the high itself is not far from record. (67 in 2004).