March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

HRRR failure today... all the runs showed the moisture way farther north and west than reality.   

 

Here was the 12Z run for right now...

 

 

 

And the reality...

 

[luminen]

What is it like Living in Kelowna? Always thought that area was beautiful. What type of jobs are there?

 

I don't know what it's like to live in Kelowna, I've never been there, but there are lots of different kinds of jobs. It's probably the better of the two between it and Kamloops though. I've been to Kamloops and it's not that great as a town, but the scenery is nice and wide open.

[Bryant]

The relatively mild temperatures, low clouds, and rain. Along with the smell of damp earth and grass (plants/microbes are waking up). I don't see what is wrong with that comparison.

Nothing wrong with it at all

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rain today has not been very impressive. A little over a half inch. No big deal.

 

Saturday night could get close to snow here on the backside of that departing cold front. 

[crf450ish]

During our 4-week dry spell this coming summer we will hear from some people about how they miss the rain and the trees are dying.

I'm sure looking forward to summer. Dry crackling sounds of grass and willow leaves as the breeze clips through the air on a hot late June day. Really makes me appreciate the seasons.

[Jesse]

Rain today has not been very impressive. A little over a half inch. No big deal.

 

 

Come on atmosphere. Is that all you got

[Jesse]

I'm sure looking forward to summer. Dry crackling sounds of grass and willow leaves as the breeze clips through the air on a hot late June day. Really makes me appreciate the seasons.

Plants don't usually start really drying out until sometime in July.

[Jesse]

That has been a pretty long lived block just SW of the Bering Sea. Amazing that we could have been seeing an historic mid-March cold and snow event the last several days had things gone a little differently. Instead we got buckets of mild rain.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Aside from early in the morning there wasn't much rain here today but the humidity remained over 96% the entire day with lots of fog/mist over a large area this evening. Kind of interesting in a different way and it's felt almost warm.

[HighlandExperience]

That has been a pretty long lived block just SW of the Bering Sea. Amazing that we could have been seeing an historic mid-March cold and snow event the last several days had things gone a little differently. Instead we got buckets of mild rain.

How sad

[TT-SEA]

Warm morning here... 54 now and not even raining.   

 

Surprisingly its warmer out here than at SEA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NYC blizzard bust. Trump called it yesterday.

[Kayla]

Probably should cut all of the funding to NOAA.

 

How much you get there? Turned over to sleet?

 

Models really underestimated the warm nose there it looks like...

[HighlandExperience]

NYC blizzard bust. Trump called it yesterday.

Big bust for coastal areas. Looks like many of those spots will turn to rain by midday. Interior areas doing better.

 

Some spots were expected to see 18 inches. Those totals have been cut significantly. Still they should be happy seeing 3-6 inches of snow in March.

[TT-SEA]

Big bust for coastal areas. Looks like many of those spots will turn to rain by midday. Interior areas doing better.

 

Some spots were expected to see 18 inches. Those totals have been cut significantly. Still they should be happy seeing 3-6 inches of snow in March.

 

I would bet the vast majority of the population there disagrees with this statement.  

[Phil]

How much you get there? Turned over to sleet?

 

Models really underestimated the warm nose there it looks like...

Low was much stronger/farther west than modeled. Have never seen it sleet at hard as it did last night..wind was pounding the sleet against the north side of the house. Almost impossible to sleep.

 

This region finished with approximately 1-3" of snow followed by 4-6" of sleet. I have a 5" glacier here.

[Phil]

This is nuts. You can walk/jump on the sleet glacier without falling through. Reminds me of V-Day 2007.

 

Can't measure anymore since it's solid ice now, but I'm estimating between 4-7" with "sleet drifts" approaching one foot. One area in the driveway and grass was exposed to the wind and has no accumulation at all.

[HighlandExperience]

I would bet the vast majority of the population there disagrees with this statement.

Maybe. Has not snowed much this season over there. Lots of my friends who work on the east coast are dissapointed.

[Phil]

BTW, sleet is super-hard to shovel. It required more effort to shovel this 5" glacier than last year's 3 foot blizzard. Had to use the heavy stainless steel shovel to break up the ice.

[TT-SEA]

This is nuts. You can walk/jump on the sleet glacier without falling through. Reminds me of V-Day 2007.

 

Can't measure anymore since it's solid ice now, but I'm estimating between 4-7" with "sleet drifts" approaching one foot. One area in the driveway and grass was exposed to the wind and has no accumulation at all.

 

Pics?

[Phil]

Pics?

Yes, will upload this evening.

[Jesse]

Yes, will upload this evening.

Any new thoughts on our spring/summer?

 

This mild and rainy pattern sucks. Something cooler and drier would be much appreciated.

[Sometimesdylan]

That has been a pretty long lived block just SW of the Bering Sea. Amazing that we could have been seeing an historic mid-March cold and snow event the last several days had things gone a little differently. Instead we got buckets of mild rain.

We got up to 18 inches in spots here yesterday. Not sure what the official measurement is.

[TT-SEA]

Any new thoughts on our spring/summer?

 

This mild and rainy pattern sucks. Something cooler and drier would be much appreciated.

 

Well over 12 inches of rain at SEA in the last 6 weeks... normal for the time period is just under 4 inches.

[Phil]

6 inches of snow by about 5am. 3-4 inches of sleet and just enough freezing rain to compact things down. Its like wet sand now. I wouldn't call this storm a bust unless you spent several grand on a snowblower for your beachfront property. New Jersey had a nasty icing and we are now getting region wide gusts of 30-40 mph.

Whether or not it was a "bust" probably depends on your perspective. The warm nose advanced about 50 miles farther west than modeled, which obviously isn't great, but not a bust. However, if you were near the transition zone to begin with, it makes a huge difference and could be considered a massive bust. Long Island was placed under a blizzard warning for 12-18" of snow and 70mph winds, and ended up with 2-4" of sleet and even plain rain, though the winds verified in most areas. Inland about 40 miles from NYC, they're racking up several feet of snow, more than what was forecasted.

[TT-SEA]

60 now in North Bend... of course its with strong wind and occasional drizzle.   

 

The small bushes in our yard are starting to leaf out now despite the complete lack of sunshine.   A far cry from being buried by over a foot of snow just one week ago.

 

[HighlandExperience]

Whether or not it was a "bust" probably depends on your perspective. The warm nose advanced about 50 miles farther west than modeled, which obviously isn't great, but not a bust. However, if you were near the transition zone to begin with, it makes a huge difference and could be considered a massive bust. Long Island was placed under a blizzard warning for 12-18" of snow and 70mph winds, and ended up with 2-4" of sleet and even plain rain, though the winds verified in most areas. Inland about 40 miles from NYC, they're racking up several feet of snow, more than what was forecasted.

Very interesting. Plenty of weather weenies on Long Island are pretty sad today. My friend who works in DC said they only received a dusting.

 

Again depends on where you live. Certainly a much needed snowfall for the eastern resorts. They have had a rough season.

[weatherfan2012]

6 inches of snow by about 5am. 3-4 inches of sleet and just enough freezing rain to compact things down. Its like wet sand now. I wouldn't call this storm a bust unless you spent several grand on a snowblower for your beachfront property. New Jersey had a nasty icing and we are now getting region wide gusts of 30-40 mph.

the storm wasn't a bust as the storm varfied but how the snow mix rain line ended up was a busted part in the forecast in certain locations.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 7"+ on the month now. March averages 9" here, so we should exceed that by the end of the weekend. 9" will get me to 70" on the water year. 

[ShawniganLake]

Partly sunny and 58F here. Could be our first 60 of the year.

[Phil]

Very interesting. Plenty of weather weenies on Long Island are pretty sad today. My friend who works in DC said they only received a dusting.

 

Again depends on where you live. Certainly a much needed snowfall for the eastern resorts. They have had a rough season.

Much needed here for drought reasons, actually. We've been absurdly dry this winter. Good news is there's about 2" of liquid frozen in this "ice pack", and most of it will seep into the ground slowly and efficiently with the chilly weather upcoming, as opposed to running off.

 

Depressing that all the flowers have been killed, though. Even the cherry blossoms have turned brown and died.

[Phil]

Any new thoughts on our spring/summer?

 

This mild and rainy pattern sucks. Something cooler and drier would be much appreciated.

I haven't done a complete analog-based extrapolatory analysis, however based on where the system is and where it seems to be going, I think a coolish/wet spring, lasting at least into early summer, is most likely, kind of like 2010 with the broad NPAC ridge/anticyclonic train and trough over BC/GOA.

[dairyd]

I haven't done a complete analog-based extrapolatory analysis, however based on where the system is and where it seems to be going, I think a coolish/wet spring, lasting at least into early summer, is most likely, kind of like 2010 with the broad NPAC ridge/anticyclonic train and trough over BC/GOA.

Wouldn't the enso analogs be closer to 2012 or 2009 coming out of a weak la nina winter?  Depending whether sst's fire up or not would determine which year would pan out for summer.  But isn't current jet/storm pattern as much a function of the cold NE pool than enso at this point?

[DareDuck]

Much needed here for drought reasons, actually. We've been absurdly dry this winter. Good news is there's about 2" of liquid frozen in this "ice pack", and most of it will seep into the ground slowly and efficiently with the chilly weather upcoming, as opposed to running off.

 

Depressing that all the flowers have been killed, though. Even the cherry blossoms have turned brown and died.

We had that here in central OR. Our 31" depth melted slowly over several weeks and just seeped into the ground. The rivers and streams never rose all that close to flood stage as the ground was able to absorb all the water. Great for our trees as they've been stressed for a few years. We haven't been as wet as western OR and pretty much all of WA.

[TT-SEA]

Definitely greening up and coming to life... even without any sun.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely greening up and coming to life... even without any sun.

 

I fertilized the lawn on Sunday.

[TT-SEA]

I fertilized the lawn on Sunday.

 

I am waiting until this weekend.   Too much rain would likely wash it all away.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Central Park got 7.2" of snow. Not bad. 

[Jesse]

I don't like the trend toward all energy approaching us diving offshore on the 12z Euro. Doesn't give a lot of hope for cool and dry weather. Just continued murky southerly flow.

[Timmy Supercell]

So far 70 today at KLMT. That matches the record set in 1994. A small chance we break that this afternoon.

 

One thing that surprises me is that I have been near the south end of a front all day, have filtered sun and it still got this warm. Almost kind of like it's April but it's only mid March.