March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I'm going with a flat B.  I love the overall look of the 500mb anomalies this winter, but the lack of snow when it really counted was too glaring of a problem.  On the other hand persistence of cold, frozen lakes, incredible number of snow chances, remarkable number of sub 40 highs, and extreme lack of 50+ highs were quite impressive.  Just some fine detail adjustments could have made this winter top tier.

 

The unrelenting wet of February and now March is lowering my grade for this winter.   

[snow_wizard]

The unrelenting wet of February and now March is lowering my grade for this winter.   

 

My dream winter would be 1928-29.  In some ways that one is my favorite of the 20th century.  It helps that this area did extremely well on that one also.

[epiceast]

34F at the airport. Same story here, snow only sticking to grass(about a cm on cars now). I don't understand how you guys get above freezing snowfalls that accumulate on roads so often, I've only seen that happen about a dozen times in my life when there wasn't snow cover already.

 

Edit: back down to 33, south wind switched to a gap wind from Hells Canyon(ESE).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This weather is disgusting

[TT-SEA]

This weather is disgusting

 

Truly is.   

 

And facebook is taunting me with 'memories' from previous years when it was much nicer at this time.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Truly is.

 

And facebook is taunting me with 'memories' from previous years when it was much nicer at this time.

Over an inch of rain falling into 10" of snow with about half still left at the end of the day. Ugh. Already 4" of precip this month. Another 15" month definitely a possibility.

[epiceast]

Over an inch of rain falling into 10" of snow with about half still left at the end of the day. Ugh. Already 4" of precip this month. Another 15" month definitely a possibility.

Quick way to consolidate the snow... But not melt it

[stuffradio]

I wasn't even born yet when I joined.

Which came first, Jesse's account, or the baby? No one will know!

[epiceast]

Still snowing even thought 850mb 0C line is a tad north of me now. I guess the valley is holding onto the cold air with no air moving below 5000 feet.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Here is the 4 p.m. analysis.   This is almost never accumulating snow at my location... but it was today.   This is not too far what it showed this morning.  

 

 

Could have been some cool air trapped, or maybe heavy precipitation keeping it cool. It must have been pretty wet snow with that profile. It seems like the warm air aloft was delayed too though, I bet it's warmer there now than it was any time during the day.

[epiceast]

Another cz is forming as 925mb temps drop into business zone for puget sound.

[epiceast]

And I switched over to very light rain about an hour after 850mb temps said I should have. Seems like downsloping is not helping right now. Hopefully the next surge of moisture modeled by HRRR tomorrow morning dumps another inch before the big event tomorrow night.

[MossMan]

35 and drizzle!!!

[ShawniganLake]

Cloudy and 29F here. We picked up a coating of snow overnight with some passing flurries

[MossMan]

Had a dusting of snow about an hour ago, currently 33.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Closing in on 4.5" of precip on the month. Which is about half of average for the month overall. Spring is still quite wet up here. Even May averages almost 5" of rain. The biggest difference on precip between here and the valley is in the spring as we get a lot more rain with the showery airmasses. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today will be my 11th and final day in a row with snow on the ground. 

 

45 days total with snow cover this winter. Not as many as Tim and some others, but still not bad at all. 

[Bryant]

Woke up to some surprise snow falling. No matter the month, it's always nice to see

[bainbridgekid]

Never been happier to wake up to a 1/4 inch of frozen slush on the grass and cars.

 

Officially at exactly a foot for the Winter!!!

[MossMan]

When I arrived at work this morning there was nearly an inch on the ground and on the trees. Now 45 minutes later its nearly gone. Could be the last lowland snow I see for the next few years if the rumor of a major Nino comes true. 

[epiceast]

When I arrived at work this morning there was nearly an inch on the ground and on the trees. Now 45 minutes later its nearly gone. Could be the last lowland snow I see for the next few years if the rumor of a major Nino comes true. 

You'll find a way to get dustings out of convergence zones almost any winter.

[Jesse]

When I arrived at work this morning there was nearly an inch on the ground and on the trees. Now 45 minutes later its nearly gone. Could be the last lowland snow I see for the next few years if the rumor of a major Nino comes true.

There hasn't been a major Niño rumor.

[MossMan]

This winter was so great yet so frustrating at the same time. I am disappointing we never got a large snowfall like what I usually always see in a non Nino year, 4' was my biggest snowfall. Lots of little 1-2" ones which I am fine with IF we would have gotten a good hard freeze right afterwards. The painfully slow seepage of arctic air after the snowfalls earlier in the season just plain sucked. The snow would be pretty much be melted and gone by the time the cold air would arrive, that was the biggest disappointment of this year. 

[MossMan]

There hasn't been a major Niño rumor.

I saw a post somewhere (think it might have been one of the facebook groups) saying things might go from weak Nino, to a raging one with the latest updates? Our luck...it will be a rager!!

[Bryant]

Snowing moderately here 

[Bryant]

I saw a post somewhere (think it might have been one of the facebook groups) saying things might go from weak Nino, to a raging one with the latest updates? Our luck...it will be a rager!!

 

 

And this is why I always encourage you to read the models yourself

[stuffradio]

I saw a post somewhere (think it might have been one of the facebook groups) saying things might go from weak Nino, to a raging one with the latest updates? Our luck...it will be a rager!!

Right now it's only forecast to be a weak Nino.

[ShawniganLake]

This morning was the 31 day this winter with at least a trace of snow recorded here.

[Jesse]

I saw a post somewhere (think it might have been one of the facebook groups) saying things might go from weak Nino, to a raging one with the latest updates? Our luck...it will be a rager!!

Models have been backing off a little. But there wasn't ever anything to really indicate a strong Niño.

 

A Niño must cause quite the inner battle between sun and warmth loving mossman and snow and cold loving mossman though!

[Bryant]

Well over an inch... thank you convergence zone

[Jesse]

There is some really cold air off to our NW right now. Too bad it's not going to drop straight down like some models indicated several days ago.

[Jesse]

Looking like a pretty good bet that Monday will be our first 60+ day of the season. Should feel nice after an almost four month hiatus.

[bainbridgekid]

Well over an inch... thank you convergence zone

What's your seasonal total up to now?

[MossMan]

Models have been backing off a little. But there wasn't ever anything to really indicate a strong Niño.

 

A Niño must cause quite the inner battle between sun and warmth loving mossman and snow and cold loving mossman though!

I want warm and dry summers and cold snowy winters. Not muddy cool summers and muddy mild winters, haha! That is why someday I will be living somewhere in the Methow Valley.  

[MossMan]

There is some really cold air off to our NW right now. Too bad it's not going to drop straight down like some models indicated several days ago.

Such potential just to our north, its a shame that wont slip south...would have been a lovely grand finale. 

[Bryant]

What's your seasonal total up to now?

I didn't keep track, and am regretting it. Never expected to have so many small events this winter. Guessing it's roughly 25", made up of 2 main events of 5-6" and numerous 1-3" events.

 

Ended with 2" over the 2.5 hours it snowed. Was quite heavy for a while

[TT-SEA]

Looking like a pretty good bet that Monday will be our first 60+ day of the season. Should feel nice after an almost four month hiatus.

 

Finally a situation where the models have trended more ridgy and warmer as the time approaches.   That has not happened for months it seems.

 

Here is what next Monday looked like 4 days ago...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls04/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls04-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-5roiFM.png

 

 

And now what the latest ECMWF shows...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls05/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls05-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-ffDtNs.png

[ShawniganLake]

Tim, is it still snowing there today?

[TT-SEA]

Tim, is it still snowing there today?

 

Some flakes in the air but the snow on the ground is melting.    36 degrees.

[MossMan]

Some flakes in the air but the snow on the ground is melting.    36 degrees.

You might be mowing by next weekend!

Or should I say your kids might be mowing by next weekend!