March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[epiceast]

This shower has officially closed i-90 over lookout pass.

[seattleweatherguy]

New ECMWF does show some lowland snow overnight and early tomorrow morning.

 

 

Tomorrow afternoon it shows significant rainfall with an 850mb temp of -2C and a 925mb temp of +1C.

Oh wait I'm in the white bothell seems shadowed

[Jesse]

This shower has officially closed i-90 over lookout pass.

Sounds like shower might be a misnomer. Maybe more like a shortwave.

[epiceast]

Sounds like shower might be a misnomer. Maybe more like a shortwave.

Yea it looks more organized now, very elongated in the direction of its travel. But it was definitely a shower when it was hitting the pass. Quick followup with another one 30 minutes later however, that's probably what caused the road closure. I also don't see any upper level local compression at 850, 700 or 500mb levels. 

[bainbridgekid]

I like SEA's chances of picking up 1/4 to a half inch tonight to pass PDX for seasonal snowfall. Pretty good shower around Aberdeen seemingly headed their way with another lighter shower closer to SEA.

 

Hopefully they are paying attention to measure and record even a quick dusting since they are tied with PDX right now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Good old southerly flow -- rained all night. The 1/2 inch of snow I had is all gone. Just dumping - 36 degree rain here.

[TT-SEA]

Snowing moderately here right now... looks like another 2-3 inches overnight but hard to tell with so much snow on the ground already.    We had 9 inches on the ground last night so probably close to a foot now.     Well over 20 inches now in the last 9 days.

[snow maniac]

Snow mix here.

[TT-SEA]

Snow mix here.

 

Different types of snow mixed together?   

[HighlandExperience]

Good old southerly flow -- rained all night. The 1/2 inch of snow I had is all gone. Just dumping - 36 degree rain here.

Story of our winter. At least it was cold right?

[TT-SEA]

I can't believe I am looking at moisture streaming in on the radar when it's cold enough for snow right from the start. Finally!

 

I would issue a winter weather advisory right now if I were the NWS.

 

 

Did you clear the 10-inch mark?   

[TT-SEA]

Its a miracle!!   Snow!     I believe this is 8 out of the last 11 days in which we woke up to snow falling.    Approaching 85 inches on the season and almost 25 inches in the last 10 days.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Picked up 3/4" overnight with several hours of light snow. Currently cloudy and 30F. Curious to see how today turns out here as the forecast is for mostly rain. Could be a close call for snow through the morning at least.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some very cold rain in the Puget Sound this morning.

[snow maniac]

Snow mix here.

Well now it's full on dumping snow and everything is turning white fast.

[epiceast]

Looks like some very cold rain in the Puget Sound this morning.

Aka snow in January.

[seattleweatherguy]

Yea only cold rain here

[van city]

Its a miracle!!   Snow!     I believe this is 8 out of the last 11 days in which we woke up to snow falling.    Approaching 85 inches on the season and almost 25 inches in the last 10 days.

 

Hey Tim, do you have a room for Jim to move in with you, so can have a piece of your happiness (snow)?

[MossMan]

Chunky rain! 34! Most of my 2" of snow melted overnight!

[TT-SEA]

Hey Tim, do you have a room for Jim to move in with you, so can have a piece of your happiness (snow)?

 

I am not too happy here!   

[van city]

I am not too happy here!

 

He would be. ☺

[FroYoBro]

I am not too happy here!   

 

Then why do you live there? 

[TT-SEA]

He would be. ☺

 

Even Jim might be sick of the snow here at this point.   Every day is adventure because there is no snow down below so life goes on as normal.   

 

Chaining up vehicles to get down the hill is getting real old.  

[van city]

Even Jim might be sick of the snow here at this point.   Every day is adventure because there is no snow down below so life goes on as normal.   

 

Chaining up vehicles to get down the hill is getting real old.

 

Buy a tractor.

[TT-SEA]

Then why do you live there? 

 

 

We love it most of the time.   There are times like this when its a little exhausting but it will pass.   

 

And getting snow is really nice in the heart of the winter when other areas have rain.   Its just worn out its welcome by this point.  

[TT-SEA]

Buy a tractor.

 

Take a tractor to work?  

[van city]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even Jim might be sick of the snow here at this point.   Every day is adventure because there is no snow down below so life goes on as normal.   

 

Chaining up vehicles to get down the hill is getting real old.  

 

Yeah, I've had less snow than you, but almost 50" is enough for me. The last two weekends have satisfied me with snow for the season. I would like to get more, but no more major snow dumps, and inch or two here or there that melts by afternoon would be fine.

 

I am surprised you chain up just to get down the hill. What do you drive? I have a Forester and my fiance has an Outback. We don't even own a set of chains. My Forester sliced through 10" of unbroken snow on my road like it was nothing yesterday. 

 

We love it most of the time.   There are times like this when its a little exhausting but it will pass.   

 

And getting snow is really nice in the heart of the winter when other areas have rain.   Its just worn out its welcome by this point.  

 

You have a beautiful place! Plus having lived there over 10 years and with the recovery in the market I am sure you now have a tremendous amount of equity in your home. 

 

I am to the point with my home where I bought at such a low point in the market, I may even hold on to it if I ever decide to move. At current rental rates for similar homes in the area I could rent it out for $600-800 in cash flow a month. 

[MossMan]

The heavier precip rates helping and it's all snow now.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, I've had less snow than you, but almost 50" is enough for me. The last two weekends have satisfied me with snow for the season. I would like to get more, but no more major snow dumps, and inch or two here or there that melts by afternoon would be fine.

 

I am surprised you chain up just to get down the hill. What do you drive? I have a Forester and my fiance has an Outback. We don't even own a set of chains. My Forester sliced through 10" of unbroken snow on my road like it was nothing yesterday. 

 

 

You have a beautiful place! Plus having lived there over 10 years and with the recovery in the market I am sure you now have a tremendous amount of equity in your home. 

 

I am to the point with my home where I bought at such a low point in the market, I may even hold on to it if I ever decide to move. At current rental rates for similar homes in the area I could rent it out for $600-800 in cash flow a month. 

 

We have a Ford Expedition that my wife uses most of the time and always when there is snow... but she is a wimp.   It would actually do fine coming up the hill in almost any amount of snow.   But going down the hill is a little more dicey.     We have a couple very steep areas of the road.   My son brought a 4-Runner with a V8 and he is much more of a risk-taker but even he gets a little nervous going down the hill when its bad.    My other son brought an Outback.    They both wanted cars that they could use to go skiing and they can also tow the boat with the 4-Runner and they are really looking forward to that this summer.   No parents required to take the boat out with their friends.  

 

A couple years ago... we had maybe 2 inches of snow one morning and I told my wife that she did not need chains but it was icy below the snow and worse than I thought.   She ended up sideways to the road and other cars backed up and it was big mess.   Now she just feels more confident with chains.   I chain up the car in the garage and she takes them off when she gets to North Bend.

 

Housing prices here have gone crazy.   And we built our house so we we had good equity from the start.    We don't plan on moving though so its only on paper.    

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowing hard here. 2 inches already.

[Timmy]

We have a Ford Expedition that my wife uses most of the time and always when there is snow... but she is a wimp. It would actually do fine coming up the hill in almost any amount of snow. But going down the hill is a little more dicey. We have a couple very steep areas of the road. My son brought a 4-Runner with a V8 and he is much more of a risk-taker but even he gets a little nervous going down the hill when its bad. My other son brought an Outback. They both wanted cars that they could use to go skiing and they can also tow the boat with the 4-Runner and they are really looking forward to that this summer. No parents required to take the boat out with their friends.

 

A couple years ago... we had maybe 2 inches of snow one morning and I told my wife that she did not need chains but it was icy below the snow and worse than I thought. She ended up sideways to the road and other cars backed up and it was big mess. Now she just feels more confident with chains. I chain up the car in the garage and she takes them off when she gets to North Bend.

 

Housing prices here have gone crazy. And we built our house so we we had good equity from the start. We don't plan on moving though so its only on paper.

I have a pathfinder off road edition and studded snow tires. I have never even dreamed of chaining up going down our hill (1500' in 3.6 miles). Never had any issues except in my own driveway when icy.

[TT-SEA]

I have a pathfinder off road edition and studded snow tires. I have never even dreamed of chaining up going down our hill (1500' in 3.6 miles). Never had any issues except in my own driveway when icy.

 

Studded tires would definitely be an option for us... but so much of our driving is on bare roads even in the winter.    That would eliminate the need for chains.  

[seattleweatherguy]

Snowing here with rain

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We have a Ford Expedition that my wife uses most of the time and always when there is snow... but she is a wimp.   It would actually do fine coming up the hill in almost any amount of snow.   But going down the hill is a little more dicey.     We have a couple very steep areas of the road.   My son brought a 4-Runner with a V8 and he is much more of a risk-taker but even he gets a little nervous going down the hill when its bad.    My other son brought an Outback.    They both wanted cars that they could use to go skiing and they can also tow the boat with the 4-Runner and they are really looking forward to that this summer.   No parents required to take the boat out with their friends.  

 

A couple years ago... we had maybe 2 inches of snow one morning and I told my wife that she did not need chains but it was icy below the snow and worse than I thought.   She ended up sideways to the road and other cars backed up and it was big mess.   Now she just feels more confident with chains.   I chain up the car in the garage and she takes them off when she gets to North Bend.

 

Housing prices here have gone crazy.   And we built our house so we we had good equity from the start.    We don't plan on moving though so its only on paper.    

 

Makes sense. The highway down to Silverton is actually not all that steep, it really only has two big hills, and the biggest one goes from about 750' down to 300', so that section is usually not snow covered. The drop to Silverton is about 1400', but over the course of nearly 10 miles, the snowiest section of road is the 2-3 miles below my house and that section is pretty gentle.

 

Housing prices are cheap here in comparison to the Seattle area, but they have still recovered to above pre-recession levels. I just sold a house for my company in Salem. It is a nice house, but needs updating badly, we purchased it pre-crash for 235K, sold it last month for 258K. It is 2,800 square feet in a decent older neighborhood in South Salem, so pretty affordable. Especially compared to up there. 

 

Silverton is about 25% more expensive than Salem though. 

[Kayla]

We have a Ford Expedition that my wife uses most of the time and always when there is snow... but she is a wimp.   It would actually do fine coming up the hill in almost any amount of snow.   But going down the hill is a little more dicey.     We have a couple very steep areas of the road.   My son brought a 4-Runner with a V8 and he is much more of a risk-taker but even he gets a little nervous going down the hill when its bad.    My other son brought an Outback.    They both wanted cars that they could use to go skiing and they can also tow the boat with the 4-Runner and they are really looking forward to that this summer.   No parents required to take the boat out with their friends.  

 

A couple years ago... we had maybe 2 inches of snow one morning and I told my wife that she did not need chains but it was icy below the snow and worse than I thought.   She ended up sideways to the road and other cars backed up and it was big mess.   Now she just feels more confident with chains.   I chain up the car in the garage and she takes them off when she gets to North Bend.

 

Housing prices here have gone crazy.   And we built our house so we we had good equity from the start.    We don't plan on moving though so its only on paper.    

 

Get her some snow tires! We have Blizzaks studless winter tires on our two AWD vehicles and have never had any issues since. Was even more appreciative of the Blizzaks once we moved to Bozeman as everyone around town doesn't leave their home without a good set of snow tires through April!

[Geos]

Straight up snow here. It did start as rain earlier this morning. 33.2°

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS continues to trend warmer for the weekend.   

[IbrChris]

1-15 day forecast temperature anomalies (based on an average of the Euro ensemble, GFS ensemble and CMC ensemble and 1981-2010 normals).

 

1-5 day period:

 

PDX: -1.2
SEA: -2.6

GEG: -2.6
MFR: 3.6
BOI: 2.9
YVR: -4.8

 

6-10 day period:

 

PDX: 0.1

SEA: 0.7

GEG: 0.8
MFR: 3.4
BOI: 4.1
YVR: -1.7

11-15 day period:

PDX: -3.0
SEA: -1.8
GEG: -1.4
MFR: -0.8
BOI: 0.3
YVR: -2.4
 

[bainbridgekid]

Moderate snow here at work in Mountlake Terrace and the ground is turning white.

Won't last long, but it's pretty for now.