March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[Money]

GFS coming in significantly N/stronger for the system next week.

 

3-5 for Chicago this run.

[Geos]

Hit 14° this morning, but now have jumped 15° on SW breezes. Filtered sun atm.

 

More like 2-4" for Chicago. With it being so warm tomorrow in that snow zone. The ratios might end being under 10:1.

 

If someone wants to start a thread on this system, go ahead.

[East Dubzz]

33 here in Iowa City with the sun shining. Ah can't wait to get outside here in a little bit!

[Money]

GFS with the same old, same old. Snowstorm for N. IL around the 17th followed by more cold. 

[Geos]

33 here in Iowa City with the sun shining. Ah can't wait to get outside here in a little bit!

 

Just hit freezing here. It's breezy, but the sun makes up for it. 

I think I heard a red-winged blackbird outside a little bit ago. A "spring" bird.

[Money]

the24weatherman what do you think of the 12z GFS?

 

Doesn't reach above 35 from like the 16th to the 25th. And 3 or so snowstorms in that timeframe as well.

 

EURO was hinting at that same idea.

[indianajohn]

00z GFS Fantasy Land....ORD is at 75.5" for the season.  Do the math...

that would be epic!!! Don't think we seen totals like that during the GHD blizzard LOL!!

[tim the weatherman]

the24weatherman what do you think of the 12z GFS?

 

Doesn't reach above 35 from like the 16th to the 25th. And 3 or so snowstorms in that timeframe as well.

 

EURO was hinting at that same idea.

lol this is in fantasy land so dream on.

[Money]

lol this is in fantasy land so dream on.

 

So was your 18-24 prediction for 2 storms in a row where it only showed 2-4 for you.

 

Anyways, it's going to be cold/snowy through most of March. Gonna have to enjoy the last few days here of 40's and 50s

[Tom]

So does anyone else think winter's over mid March????  How many times have we heard winter is over this year in the long range just to see the models correct colder???  It's the pattern and it won't give up.  BTW, is anyone noticing the trough on the GFS and/or PV correcting farther west as we get closer in time???  About a week ago it was placing it in eastern Canada and now it will be in C Canada.  Do you guys remember the PV outbreaks in Jan and Feb that also placed the PV in eastern Canada before correcting itself in C Canada and at times ending up in the Great Lakes???  This time however, it wont penetrate as far south but the same pattern is repeating itself and you will see the models get colder with due time.  It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out and see the pattern.

[Sciascia]

lol this is in fantasy land so dream on.

The time frame is similar to when everything you're projecting is supposed to happen. Wouldn't that put you in fantasy land too?

[Money]

GGEM is almost exactly like the GFS in the long range.

 

Looks like a potential snowstorm around HR 168 (March 16th-17th) followed by a very strong clipper/hybird system on the 18th/19th. Followed by another cold shot.

[Money]

Actually GGEM gets the freezing line down past STL by HR 240 with another strong high moving in from Canada. 

[james1976]

does Iowa get in on any of this or is this another Chicago special?

[Geos]

So was your 18-24 prediction for 2 storms in a row where it only showed 2-4 for you.

 

Anyways, it's going to be cold/snowy through most of March. Gonna have to enjoy the last few days here of 40's and 50s

 

Nobody really knows what the rest of the month will be like. That's too far out to predict right now.

 

I've never seen more than 3-4 days in a row in the latter part of March (2001, 2006, 2011, and 2013) that remained near or below freezing. With the deep snow cover gone, it should have no problem warming into the low 40s from time to time, even in Milwaukee metro.

[Money]

Nobody really knows what the rest of the month will be like. That's too far out to predict right now.

 

I've never seen more than 3-4 days in a row in the latter part of March (2001, 2006, 2011, and 2013) that remained near or below freezing. With the deep snow cover gone, it should have no problem warming into the low 40s from time to time, even in Milwaukee metro.

 

There won't be "no snow cover" if the GGEM/GFS are right. Both have several snowstorms before the cold spell. 

[Tom]

This winter really began to show it had teeth when the warm pattern flipped mid November and turned very cold the last 2 weeks of November and we ended up below normal.  The relentless cold and active pattern in our region never gave up Dec-Feb and although we are seeing a reprieve from the cold the next week or so, Ol' Man Winter will not give up and this winter season will probably go down in the record books as one of the longest/severe stretches of winter weather in our history.

[Tom]

James, yes, Iowa is still in the game.

[Geos]

There won't be "no snow cover" if the GGEM/GFS are right. Both have several snowstorms before the cold spell. 

 

The new snow won't have any great staying power (maybe like 3 or 4 days if it snows 6"). New snow doesn't last too well near the equinox and beyond.

[Money]

The new snow won't have any staying power. New snow doesn't last too well near the equinox and beyond.

 

Keep on dreaming for the 50's. It's going to happen one of these days.

[Iowawx]

Keep on dreaming for the 50's. It's going to happen one of these days.

Expected to hit 46 here today and 52 tomorrow.  

[james1976]

just looked at the entire GFS run. storm on 16-17th and then another one 2 days later! not much warmth throughout either.

[Tom]

Wait and see what starts happening when we get the SW Flow part of the LRC to start showing up late in March into April.  I feel that will be another example of when met's start saying winter is over.  That is when the active part of the LRC starts repeating itself again.  If I remember correctly, there are 4 or 5 storm systems that will hit during this period.  I could be some major Spring time storm systems developing during this part of the wx pattern especially when there will still be cold air around.

[tim the weatherman]

The new snow won't have any great staying power (maybe like 3 or 4 days if it snows 6"). New snow doesn't last too well near the equinox and beyond.

i do agree geos that it will be hard on these snowstorms at this time of the year because of the approach of spring with the length of days and with the angle of the sun.

[Iowawx]

Wait and see what starts happening when we get the SW Flow part of the LRC to start showing up late in March into April.  I feel that will be another example of when met's start saying winter is over.  That is when the active part of the LRC starts repeating itself again.  If I remember correctly, there are 4 or 5 storm systems that will hit during this period.  I could be some major Spring time storm systems developing during this part of the wx pattern especially when there will still be cold air around.

Tom, are you thinking there could be more winter storms in Late March- April? 

[Geos]

Keep on dreaming for the 50's. It's going to happen one of these days.

 

Enjoy your low 50s tomorrow, because that's what is quoted here from MKX this morning.

 

 

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING MILD AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA

ON MONDAY...AS WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. DESPITE THE SNOW

COVER OVER THE AREA...925MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST HIGHS INTO

THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. BROUGHT HIGHS MONDAY

UPWARDS TO REFLECT THIS.

 

[Tom]

Yes, we have seen this pattern in the brutal winters of the late 50's.  Our winter of 2013-14 will be used in analogs for years to come.

[james1976]

a little springlike for a few days but winter isnt over yet. no way a pattern like this can just flip.

[tim the weatherman]

Enjoy your low 50s tomorrow, because that's what is quoted here from MKX this morning.

what about the lower 60's we supposed to get.

[Geos]

what about the lower 60's we supposed to get.

 

SE WI should be about that for highs.

Further south will be interesting... WAA and tonight's lows should suggest where we end up tomorrow. I'll stick with the current grid numbers for now.

 

Currently 35° with mid-level alto cumulus.

[Money]

Tom, do you have the 240 H GGEM snowmaps by any chance? Looks solid.

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

 

[East Dubzz]

Oh boy, a whole half an inch!

[Money]

Talk about a strong clipper.

 

986 in S. MN on the 12z EURO at HR 216. 

[East Dubzz]

Up to 42 here in Iowa City. 36 back home in Dubuque.

[DominicR]

EURO became furthur south/weaker with mid-week system. Ah that energy being help back and progressive nothern stream wave killing this potential.

[james1976]

12z GGEM...

the northeast 

[Sleather]

Oh man, I'm leaving for Bonita Springs on the 20th.... Looks like its going to be fairly cool... Might even be driving in the snow - depending on the model and dates.... Argh...

[Tom]

Winter's over????  Mother Nature says....not so fast.

[Tom]

BTW, what an epic comeback victory by the Bulls who were down by 12 in the 4th quarter against their much hated rivals Miami Heat!  Da Bulls!!!!  Relentless is a way you can describe them...just like this winter has been.