PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Gradient Keeper]

I suspect the EPS will diverge from the ECMWF no later than Day 7.

[Kolk1604]

My Turn

00z EPS Day 1

[Kolk1604]

Day 2 

[Nov1985]

00z ECMWF 850T's are very warm late in the run. But a good sign for later is the solid Kona low proposed in this run. 

[Kolk1604]

Day 3

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

2000-01 pattern if I ever saw one. 

[Kolk1604]

Day 4 

[Kolk1604]

Day 5 

[Nov1985]

3 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

00z ECMWF 850T's are very warm late in the run. But a good sign for later is the solid Kona low proposed in this run. 

Bonus: Look at the low level cold easterly wind streaming out of the mouth of the Columbia into the Pacific ocean in this animation. 

[Kolk1604]

Day 6 

[Kolk1604]

Day 7 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2000-01 pattern if I ever saw one. 

I was wondering if anyone remembers a pattern like that.   Good information. 

[ShawniganLake]

The rain is just a touch warmer tonight. 35F. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Day 7 

@Gradient Keeperis this primed for retro or? 

[Kolk1604]

Day 8 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

What was the 2000-01 winter like? I was way too young to remember it.

[DeepFriedEgg]

00z EPS is just a touch warmer than 12z

[Skagit Weather]

3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Spokane has a similar streak going with 3226 days since their last high below 13 (2/5/14). Next longest streak was 1839 days from December 1998 to January 2004.

Not shockingly, the two are majorly linked (). A pretty direct reflection of the lack of major upper level airmasses recently and more pointedly, a major lack of low level cold air advection into Eastern WA and the Basin, which in turn supplies Portland.

 

Kind of funny considering the lowest high here last December was 17F and I think of my area as slightly closer to the ocean and generally warmer in the winter than Spokane.

[Kolk1604]

Day 9 

[Kolk1604]

Day 10. Too bad our fox didn't make it 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Day 10. Too bad our fox didn't make it 

Nice NNE flow

[Kolk1604]

10 Day surface anomalies  

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

10 Day surface anomalies  

Mega low level cold. How do 850s look?

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Mega low level cold. How do 850s look?

Here's thru Day 11. A lot better than the Op 

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

What was the 2000-01 winter like? I was way too young to remember it.

Overall. Pretty forgettable. It got chilly for a while in mid December 

[Kolk1604]

Day 11 

[Kolk1604]

Day 12 

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Day 11 

Nice long wave pattern. Short waves are the weather makers and the ensembles won’t pick those up at this range. It could get interesting 

[Kolk1604]

Day 13 

 

Edit: Whoops almost Day 13 

[Gradient Keeper]

Pattern looks excellent on the EPS

[Gradient Keeper]

Potential very snowy. Wow. Fun model riding ahead!

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 50 minutes

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Potential very snowy. Wow. Fun model riding ahead!

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 50 minutes

Yup. Day 13 Snow totals 

[Kolk1604]

Day 14 

[Gradient Keeper]

Incredible persistence with that block.

[Kolk1604]

15 Day Surface temps and snow totals. 

Most of the snow falls at the end when temps are colder 

[Kolk1604]

Day 15 

[Gradient Keeper]

That was one amazing EPS run in terms of prolonged cold. Colder runs ahead! MBG!

[Kolk1604]

I think our chances of a white christmas look good 

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Major ensemble improvement for this weekend. Wtf lol

Edited December 8, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[Snownerd3000]

When the deterministic let's you down but it's ok bc the ensembles got your back