PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Anti Marine Layer]

10 minutes ago, Cloud said:

8-10

Big bad cutoff low

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, WildrootParable said:

Yesterday I engaged in a ritual I like to call "Optimistic Shopping", where I stock up on particular groceries and supplies *just in case* snow arrives, and thereby invite the snow to appear within a few days. 

It often works, at least for someone in the region. If you are the happy recipient, you're welcome. 

If your shopping was for milk and eggs instead of booze you're not going to win favor with the GFS with that shopping list.

[WildrootParable]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

If your shopping was for milk and eggs instead of booze you're not going to win favor with the GFS with that shopping list.

I said "particular groceries and supplies", didn't I? 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Rip to the ppl in Longview. They ain’t dead or anything. They just didn’t see the 12z GFS

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

I said "particular groceries and supplies", didn't I? 

I'm good on booze but you're reminding me, I need to make a run

[Cloud]

Gotta say though, this is an odd but consistent pattern being shown w/ blocking coast to coast in Canada. Fun times ahead.

[Nov1985]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Rip to the ppl in Longview. They ain’t dead or anything. They just didn’t see the 12z GFS

It's pretty warm down there when the bulk of the precip falls initially. So I think they will survive this chapter of GFS 8" snow depth fiction! 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 36 and cloudy. Woke up to a 35 degree light rain half an hour ago. Looks like the east wind may favor some spots for snow this weekend but it doesn’t look to be as favorable for a lot of places.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Currently 36 and cloudy. Woke up to a 35 degree light rain half an hour ago. Looks like the east wind may favor some spots for snow this weekend but it doesn’t look to be as favorable for a lot of places.

I have been looking at the details since I was surprised by the snow this morning.    I think I understand why the east wind is allowing for snow out here this morning with 925mb temps just below zero to the east.    It does not look nearly as favorable on Saturday morning though.

Current 925mb map and then for Saturday morning:

 

[MWG]

Temps up to 34F. 

"Some downsloping here in the Rogue Valley will mostly prevent precip until later
this morning or early this afternoon. This will scour out the
colder air that we`re currently observing here in Medford due to
residual low cloud cover that trapped the cold air beneath a steep
low-level inversion." 

 

[Blizzard777]

3 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

You love to see this from the EPS 

Temps are realistic 

I’m good with this 

[Blizzard777]

49 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

To be fair Matt’s been the main one humping 2005 the last few weeks

I’m assuming he’s going to give us a visual response to this 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Too much focus on the long range GFS instead of the ensembles.  

[Terreboner]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Too much focus on the long range GFS instead of the ensembles.  

Short, medium, or long.  It sucks in all time frames IMO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Too much focus on the long range GFS instead of the ensembles.  

Roc Solid

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not terrible.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Too much focus on the long range GFS instead of the ensembles.  

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

At the rate we are going January is in trouble. 

It's been below normal here every day from November 28 to today with one exception last Saturday and is expected to stay that way for at least the next 10 days. 

[Front Ranger]

Storm system gets stuck in the middle of the country for like 4 days on the GFS and just buries the Plains/Upper Midwest.

[Guest administrator]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

 

I'll be disabling GIFs later today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Uhhhhh

[Snownerd3000]

7 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Short, medium, or long.  It sucks in all time frames IMO.

GFS for what is worth, from what I've seen in my limited time model riding, is the best at sniffing out pattern changes. Maybe this is because it goes out 16 days vs 10 and maybe because it runs fast and loose with its modeling.  Who knows but time and time again, when we do get a big cold pattern setting in, its the GFS that moves first with the EURO caving to it over time. That is my take on it at least. Details its for however.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like a snowy morning out in the Columbia Gorge once you get east of Bridal Veil or so.

[TT-SEA]

New 12Z ECMWF for Saturday system...

 

[Snownerd3000]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Storm system gets stuck in the middle of the country for like 4 days on the GFS and just buries the Plains/Upper Midwest.

 

Describes this feature well.

[MossMan]

PNA (GFS) Forecast looking much better today compared to yesterday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

REDONKULOUS blocking signal on the GFS ensembles. 

[Terreboner]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

PNA (GFS) Forecast looking much better today compared to yesterday. 

Looks like High Desert Mat's dart game, lol.

[RentonHill]

18 minutes ago, administrator said:

I'll be disabling GIFs later today. 

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

PNA (GFS) Forecast looking much better today compared to yesterday. 

Would like it to see it compared to the day before.

[Cascadia_Wx]

15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like a snowy morning out in the Columbia Gorge once you get east of Bridal Veil or so.

[Slushy Inch]

It can get very snow in the lowlands if some moisture undercuts ridging while high pressure over the continent stays in place.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

It can get very snow in the lowlands if some moisture undercuts ridging while high pressure over the continent stays in place.

Late December 2005

[JW8]

I'll allow it.

[ShawniganLake]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Uhhhhh

Where’s my SE ridge. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

22 minutes ago, administrator said:

I'll be disabling GIFs later today. 

[Terreboner]

Snyder has a new post from Ha-Vai-ii!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Where’s my SE ridge. 

DENIED due to lack of TELECONNECTIONS! 

[Snownerd3000]

30 minutes ago, administrator said:

I'll be disabling GIFs later today. 

What is this, the NFL?

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Where’s my SE ridge. 

I read this in this voice for some reason. Released in the spring of 1984 before a VERY blocky winter…