Tom Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 Finally, summer is here! We will flip the calendar into met Summer as grilling, boating, festivals, pool/outdoor parties and sun bathing season is upon us. Will some folks roast in the heat, or not?? Who will continue to be drenched by heavy rains??? I'm fully anticipating a great month ahead that will be packed with storm chances and some stretches of very nice summery weather. What may be in store??? Let's start first by taking a look at the CFSv2 and see what it's trends look like. Cooler and Wet seems to be the theme. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201706.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201706.gif The CanSIPS model comes out with it's new monthlies run later tonight. CPC has trended for more widespread cool and wetness from the Rockies on East. @Okwx is going to like this outlook! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 Euro Week 2... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 CPC Week 3 & 4... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Severe Weather Season has sucked so far. Hardly any action to speak of. Not looking to change over the next couple weeks either. After the crappy winter a nice storm season was needed and it ain't happening. SAD! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Definitely like that outlook Tom. It looks like a short summer on the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Forecast for my area has bumped up temps to the 80s fri-sat. It will be above avg finally. Back to 70s next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Here is the latest JMA Weeklies forecast and the new monthly precip forecast: Pretty much looks like a decent June forecast with near average temps overall and periods of above normal rain. Could get drier 2nd half of the month??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 Here was the CanSIPS new run the other night for June: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017060100/cansips_T2ma_us_1.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017060100/cansips_apcpna_month_us_1.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 Interesting, the EPS from yesterday is rather similar to the CanSIPS for June temps...warm Plains, cool Lakes/South/East... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 Nippy indeed last night with lows in the upper 40s and here we are in June. Great "BonFire" indeed. I had ta grab the blankets for crying out loud. Warming trend down the road as 80s are nearing by next week, especially late in the week. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 75 already. Gonna be about 90 all weekend with storm chances. They keep raising the temps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 Yes, it's looking pretty toasty here the next few days. At the same time, models have really dried up. The garden really needed some warm, dry weather, and they got it. I hope we don't go too far the other way, though. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 2, 2017 Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 Yes, it's looking pretty toasty here the next few days. At the same time, models have really dried up. The garden really needed some warm, dry weather, and they got it. I hope we don't go too far the other way, though. Getting that exact treatment in Marshall. Lawn showing signs of stress where it always shows first. I sure hope NOAA/CPC has much more of a clue than the CFSv2 on the moisture. CFS would be a disaster for MI since the past (2) weeks of "hit-n-miss" T-showers have almost entirely missed. Seems almost impossible to get avg anything anymore around my place. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 3, 2017 Talk about a warm stretch! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 3, 2017 While I sip on my coffee on this warm/sunny morning in AZ (80F @ 7:30am), I have been trying to figure out how strong the LRC ridges may become this month and throughout the rest of summer. The first "test" will likely be next weekend to see if they will hit and hold or be more transient (as I expect). Both GEFS/EPS show a big ridge blossom near the Plains/Lakes?Midwest next Sun-Tues as a strong PAC storm targets the PAC NW pumping up the ridge to the east. Since we are in the summer, the jet is weakening considerably and drifting north into Canada as the seasonal shift sets in. However, it is my opinion that we may be seeing a stronger than usual jet stream interaction this summer. The LRC's pattern over the PAC was raging all last autumn/winter and I got a feeling with the colder waters still in place over the N PAC this will keep the jet energized over the summer. Here is the ridge on the GEFS... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017060306/gfs-ens_z500a_us_33.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017060306/gfs-ens_z500a_us_37.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017060306/gfs-ens_z500a_us_41.png I do think there will be stretches of warm/muggy weather but not like we saw last year where we had continued hot/humid air throughout the season. Drier air masses out of Canada will get tugged down more often than not this season which I think many of us will enjoy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 3, 2017 Quite the lop sided snow cover trends on opposite ends of the Pole. N.A. is at decadal lows, meanwhile, Eurasia setting new highs.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted June 4, 2017 Report Share Posted June 4, 2017 State track and field was hosted in La Crosse today. Really regret not putting sun screen on, it got up to a toasty 93°F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 5, 2017 I'll post some more maps from the long lead CPC SST CA forecast leading into late Autumn. We are heading out into the mountains to escape the heat today in the valley. NWS issued an Excessive Heat Warning yesterday through Tuesday for the seasons first official heat wave. Supposed to top out close to 110F today! Near 80F up at 7,500ft elevation near Seven Lakes, AZ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 5, 2017 Report Share Posted June 5, 2017 Local met said above normal temps for the next 2 weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 5, 2017 Report Share Posted June 5, 2017 I'll post some more maps from the long lead CPC SST CA forecast leading into late Autumn. We are heading out into the mountains to escape the heat today in the valley. NWS issued an Excessive Heat Warning yesterday through Tuesday for the seasons first official heat wave. Supposed to top out close to 110F today! Near 80F up at 7,500ft elevation near Seven Lakes, AZ. "out west vs" of going the lakeshore - 2 great options to beat the heat! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted June 5, 2017 Report Share Posted June 5, 2017 Things are definitely drying out around here. Had a small shower move through yesterday but haven't had a drop since the start of the month. Hope things pick back up soon, June is usually our month for severe weather and it has really calmed down recently. Unfortunately long-range models don't have that changing anytime soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 5, 2017 Report Share Posted June 5, 2017 My yard has averaged eight inches of rain in June over the last decade, a pretty amazing number. This June is at least starting out very differently. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Local met said above normal temps for the next 2 weeks. Hell yeah, bring it on! 90's this past weekend. Calling for low to mid 90's around these parts next weekend. Summer! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 95 today and 94 yesterday here in Omaha. It's about time it feels like summer, although I guess technically we're not there yet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Hell yeah, bring it on! 90's this past weekend. Calling for low to mid 90's around these parts next weekend. Summer!As long as there are cooler periods mixed in between...I'm game! ORD hit 90F a little earlier than normal this year... http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/climate/90Facts.png We enjoyed a beautiful day up in the mountains yesterday. As we approached Willow Springs Lake, there was smoke being blown in from a forest fire near Snake Ridge up on the Mogollon Rim. It was an interesting experience to drive through the smoke and get to our destination by the lake. It smelled like someone was having a bon fire and it brought memories of back home when I go up to Wisconsin. I took a pic of the thick, black smoke across the lake. It was initially being blown in towards our direction, but then a E/SE wind kicked in and it cleared out. https://ein.az.gov/emergency-information/emergency-bulletin/snake-ridge-fire-june-3rd-update-burnout-operations-will 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Heat is coming, first 90s of the season. Not sure if it will be considered a heatwave. I am forecasted to be 2 days in the 90s, but, a close call indeed. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 I promised some long range maps that were issued the other day from CPC's long lead SST CA forecast. Here are the late Summer/Early Autumn maps below: JAS... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/cat2m_anom.1.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/caprec_anom.1.gif ASO... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/cat2m_anom.2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/caprec_anom.2.gif SON... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/cat2m_anom.3.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/caprec_anom.3.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Wanna beat the heat this weekend in Lake Michigan and take a dip??? Might think twice with lakeshore temps in the upper 50's... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Slowly warming over next 7 days. Mid 90s by next Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Wanna beat the heat this weekend in Lake Michigan and take a dip??? Might think twice with lakeshore temps in the upper 50's... I've seen GT Bay in the mid-40's water temp at 4th of July weekend. Detroit and downstate peeps came north with their boats fooled by the much warmer and longer spring wx downstate. Unfortunately, some dove off to their deaths via heart attacks. Had one cold water experience in East Bay and I'll never forget it! (was August at that). My dad helped rescue some dude who foolishly took his canoe out on Lk. Huron in April and capsized. This guy was maybe 60 seconds from slipping under when they got to him. Ya gotta respect the elements. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Heat is coming, first 90s of the season. Not sure if it will be considered a heatwave. I am forecasted to be 2 days in the 90s, but, a close call indeed. Perfect week of 70's for Marshall. Where you at Homer?? Meanwhile, my Inlaws were saying how crazy the weather's been over their way. (There's our active wx, lol). At the end of May, they had the worst windstorm since '98, then June 1st it snowed enough to briefly whiten the ground. Avg high for June in Moscow is 72F 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Still no 90s in sight for me. I like it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 Perfect week of 70's for Marshall. Where you at Homer?? Meanwhile, my Inlaws were saying how crazy the weather's been over their way. (There's our active wx, lol). At the end of May, they had the worst windstorm since '98, then June 1st it snowed enough to briefly whiten the ground. Avg high for June in Moscow is 72F 20170606 Moscow windstorm.PNG 20170606 Moscow June snow.PNGCrazy stuff. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 Could be ORD's first official "heat wave" if we get 3 90's in a row... http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab1FileL.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 Gorgeous outlook, other than a few storms on Friday, my forecast is a mainly sunny and warm one and getting warmer to HOT. Heatwave is possible in SEMI by the weekend. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 Folks in the Plains and Midwest may be flirting with the "century mark" on Sunday...Euro high rez showing pockets near 100F! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 /\ That's one toasty CONUS KRMY hit 47º this morning, so up up and away we go. I like how ORD's graphic mentions humidity shouldn't be too bad. That helps a lot. Love me a 3-5 day heat wave. (in summer I'll add) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 /\ That's one toasty CONUS KRMY hit 47º this morning, so up up and away we go. I like how ORD's graphic mentions humidity shouldn't be too bad. That helps a lot. Love me a 3-5 day heat wave. (in summer I'll add)Temps in the 90's with low 60's dews I can deal with but when they creep up into the upper 60's and 70's...fogettaboutit! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 I'm hearing the gardens/lawns need a drink back home...12z GEFS signaling a very wet pattern Week 2. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017060712/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 I'm hearing the gardens/lawns need a drink back home...12z GEFS signaling a very wet pattern Week 2. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017060712/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png I could use a cold drink myself, lol So, as I've squawked about, SWMI suddenly went dry (not dry counties-can still get booze) over the past month. Marshall's actually not as bad off as most: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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