June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

You just have no idea. Those point forecasts are terrible out here. 100 feet away can be 2,000 feet higher. And that is only part of the issue.

Why don't you install a weather station on your property and upload the data to Wunderground? I'm actually curious to see how your climate behaves.

[TT-SEA]

Phil... you should really come out this way during your trip.     It will probably help you understand it a little better.   

[Phil]

Phil... you should really come out this way during your trip. It will probably help you understand it a little better.

That would be nice. I've got three days in the area before I head up to BC, then one day when I get back. I'll be in downtown Seattle for at least one of them, so if I can find the time I'll drive up there.

[Phil]

Still, you should put up a weather station. There aren't many stations at 1100ft in North Bend, to put it mildly.

[TT-SEA]

Still, you should put up a weather station. There aren't many stations at 1100ft in North Bend, to put it mildly.

 

 

 

Its 81 here right now.   I can always go to Everett to cool off though.  

[Phil]

Its 81 here right now.

How does any weather-loving software consultant not have a weather station streaming data online? That doesn't quite compute.

[TT-SEA]

How does any weather-loving software consultant not have a weather station streaming data online? That doesn't quite compute.

 

I know what is happening here.  

[Phil]

I know what is happening here.

Lame. I don't know what's happening there, and neither does anyone else. Hard to find a weather weenie without a backyard station these days, let alone a weather weenie software engineer.

 

Just saying. Think about it.

[TT-SEA]

Lame. I don't know what's happening there, and neither does anyone else. Hard to find a weather weenie without a backyard station these days, let alone a weather weenie software engineer.

 

Just saying. Think about it.

 

 

We just had ADT out today updating our security system and now we have cameras outside that I can monitor any time.   Really happy about this with snow in the winter.

 

I told my son that he does not have to text me from school for snow updates... he can literally stream video the entire day and watch it himself.  

[Phil]

We just had ADT out today updating our system and now we have cameras outside that I can monitor any time. Really happy about this with snow in the winter.

 

I told my son that he does not have to text me from school for snow updates... he can literally stream video the entire day and watch it himself.

Awesome. So now you can stream your video to wunderground as a weather-cam, along with your weather observations.

 

Seriously, why don't you have a station? Are you afraid it'll jinx your climate into perpetual summer troughing?

[wx_statman]

Warm nights anyone? Redding has seen minimums of 85, 85, and 86 over the past three days. 

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=krdd&num=168&banner=NONE

 

This is their first occurrence of consecutive 85+ minimums on record, and they've run it out to three days. All-time record is 87 on 8/11/1971 and 7/15/1972; June record is 86 on 6/15/2004. 

[TT-SEA]

Awesome. So now you can stream your video to wunderground as a weather-cam, along with your weather observations.

 

Seriously, why don't you have a station? Are you afraid it'll jinx your climate into perpetual summer troughing?

 

I don't think I should be streaming my ADT security camera to wunderground. And why would I want to??

 

I have never thought about a station. I know what is happening here... although it nice to have cameras outside now to check when we are not here.

[stuffradio]

Your sun angle is lower than ours by like 10 degrees. It's like comparing DC to Key West.

 

And we never get stratiform rain here in the summer. It pours for maybe 30 minutes and then it's sunny and swampy again.

... I put sunscreen on every day (when it's sunny). I can still get sunburned with sunscreen on.

[ShawniganLake]

Speaking of microclimates, within greater Victoria, temps currently range from 64 to 82F.

[Jesse]

Warm nights anyone? Redding has seen minimums of 85, 85, and 86 over the past three days.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=krdd&num=168&banner=NONE

 

This is their first occurrence of consecutive 85+ minimums on record, and they've run it out to three days. All-time record is 87 on 8/11/1971 and 7/15/1972; June record is 86 on 6/15/2004.

Pretty incredible. What makes this setup so special?

 

Then just on the other side of the Siskiyous in the Rogue valley, Medford has been seeing lows in the 50s and 60s.

[Trainwreck]

None of my relatives in Everett WA have A/C (which is where I'll be in late July). Do you really need AC at 1100ft?

I for one have a/c and it's almost a necessity here. Streaks of mid 80's-upper 90's are a common theme here under constant sunshine for weeks. I've used my a/c about a dozen times all day already and looks to continue for the foreseeable future. Hot and dry summers are the norm here.

[wx_statman]

Pretty incredible. What makes this setup so special?

 

Then just on the other side of the Siskiyous in the Rogue valley, Medford has been seeing lows in the 50s and 60s.

 

From what I can tell, persistent downslope winds from the north. More or less continuous from early Wed morning until this afternoon. 

 

They've also seamlessly combined two separate hot airmasses this week. They already hit 113 on Monday during that SW heatwave, and now they're under the big heat ridge which is underway over our heads. They never left full-on heat wave conditions in between.

[Phil]

I for one have a/c and it's almost a necessity here. Streaks of mid 80's-upper 90's are a common theme here under constant sunshine for weeks. I've used my a/c about a dozen times all day already and looks to continue for the foreseeable future. Hot and dry summers are the norm here.

Where are you located?

[epiceast]

You can sunburn very easily from April - September here.

 

And we have very few days of stratiform rain in the summer.   Lawns turn brown here unless watered.   That is not true there or in Minnesota usually.

February-August* I have never gotten sunburned here in September.

[TT-SEA]

February-August* I have never gotten sunburned here in September.

 

What?

 

March is the same sun angle as September.  

[wx_statman]

February-August* I have never gotten sunburned here in September.

 

I've gotten pretty roasted hiking at Paulina Crater before in early September. That was at pretty high elevation though. 

[Trainwreck]

Where are you located?

Central Oregon. Redmond

[Trainwreck]

I'm High Desert Mat on Marks blog. I was drinking one night when I joined and I just had seen a very bad accident. I found the name suitable at the time.

[epiceast]

What?

 

March is the same sun angle as September.  

You build resistance to the sun by September by being tan. Also February and March have a thing called snow that really likes to burn your face.

[Jesse]

February-August* I have never gotten sunburned here in September.

 

 

You build resistance to the sun by September by being tan. Also February and March have a thing called snow that really likes to burn your face.

 

#science

[Front Ranger]

PDX notched their second 90+ of the year today. Almost exactly a month after their first.

[Front Ranger]

You build resistance to the sun by September by being tan. Also February and March have a thing called snow that really likes to burn your face.

 

Not everyone tans, and not everyone has snow.

[Dave]

But when SEA is in the low 80s (clear of the inversion) you're probably in the 70s, given your 1100ft elevation, right?

 

How often does SEA get into the mid/upper 80s? I think it's safe to say that your highs are usually in the 70s. Or you could install a weather station on your property and stream the data to wunderground.

I can't speak for Tim, but you might be surprised.  I have a buddy that lives east of me at about 1500' near Blue River.  It is commonly 2-4 degrees warmer there even during a heat wave.  In fact, it is normally warmer there than here in the flats of Eugene during the summer and obviously much cooler up there in the winter.  He has a decent weather station to back this up and there are other data points that also confirm.  For whatever reason, small elevation changes (~1000') don't mean much, if anything, during the summer in some locations.

[TT-SEA]

I can't speak for Tim, but you might be surprised.  I have a buddy that lives east of me at about 1500' near Blue River.  It is commonly 2-4 degrees warmer there even during a heat wave.  In fact, it is normally warmer there than here in the flats of Eugene during the summer and obviously much cooler up there in the winter.  He has a decent weather station to back this up and there are other data points that also confirm.  For whatever reason, small elevation changes (~1000') don't mean much, if anything, during the summer in some locations.

 

Same thing here.   Often the same temperature as the valley in the summer and many times its warmer than Seattle.   But it can be so different during the winter.  

 

Actually we probably have warmer low temps on average in the winter as well.   But when there is cold air and moisture... then it pays dividends up here.

[Phil]

I can't speak for Tim, but you might be surprised. I have a buddy that lives east of me at about 1500' near Blue River. It is commonly 2-4 degrees warmer there even during a heat wave. In fact, it is normally warmer there than here in the flats of Eugene during the summer and obviously much cooler up there in the winter. He has a decent weather station to back this up and there are other data points that also confirm. For whatever reason, small elevation changes (~1000') don't mean much, if anything, during the summer in some locations.

Interesting. I guess I'm used to sitting downwind of mountains as opposed to upwind in marine air.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Speaking of microclimates, within greater Victoria, temps currently range from 64 to 82F.

 

Yep, and that isn't even all that uncommon; I frequently walk through 10~20F temperature spreads between downtown and my place a bit to the north.

[TT-SEA]

Yep, and that isn't even all that uncommon; I frequently walk through 10~20F temperature spreads between downtown and my place a bit to the north.

 

Warmer at your house?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Warmer at your house?

 

It's usually much warmer by late afternoon but can be cooler in the mid-morning. The peninsula follows a pretty predictable pattern during warm weather, winds start of moderately from the north in the morning and places north/east of here on the Haro Strait begin cold, by early afternoon the south winds start from the Juan de Fuca cooling off the downtown area and the area where the north/south winds end up converging upon warms up rapidly. I live near the center line of the peninsula so that often happens mid-late afternoon here. Depending on the strength of the prevailing northerly winds the cool southerly will occasionally overtake the northerly winds and push the warm bubble right over the coast of the Haro Strait with everywhere else being colder.

[TT-SEA]

It's usually much warmer by late afternoon but can be cooler in the mid-morning. The peninsula follows a pretty predictable pattern during warm weather, winds start of moderately from the north in the morning and places north/east of here on the Haro Strait begin cold, by early afternoon the south winds start from the Juan de Fuca cooling off the downtown area and the area where the north/south winds end up converging upon warms up rapidly. I live near the center line of the peninsula so that often happens mid-late afternoon here. Depending on the strength of the prevailing northerly winds the cool southerly will occasionally overtake the northerly winds and push the warm bubble right over the coast of the Haro Strait with everywhere else being colder.

 

It would be really strange for it to typically turn noticeably cooler in the afternoon on a sunny day.

[TT-SEA]

Models seem to backing off on the depth of the trough on Tuesday and Wednesday.    Should bring very pleasant and cooler weather either way but it looks to be moving through farther to the east with each run.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It would be really strange for it to typically turn noticeably cooler in the afternoon on a sunny day.

 

Happens almost daily at places near the Juan de Fuca.

 

This is James Bay (just southwest of downtown):

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/JamesBay.day.temperature.sml_zpsjrxptinb.png

 

This closer to where I live:

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/Cloverdale.day.temperature.sml_zpsei3h0tfy.png

 

And this is Gordon Head (northeast of here near the Haro Strait):

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/Hillcrest.day.temperature.sml_zpstuv9fz0o.png

[TT-SEA]

It might not actually work out this way... but the 00Z GFS at 192 hours shows a classic example of the marine layer evident at the 850mb level.    This happens all the time in the warm season.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062400/gfs_T850a_us_33.png

 

Still above normal at the surface though...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062400/gfs_T2ma_us_33.png

[Phil]

It might not actually work out this way... but the 00Z GFS at 192 hours shows a classic example of the marine layer evident at the 850mb level. This happens all the time in the warm season.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062400/gfs_T850a_us_33.png

 

Still above normal at the surface though...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062400/gfs_T2ma_us_33.png

Curse those short summer wavelengths. What once looked like a cool pattern here has morphed into a 3-day cool interlude sandwiched in a torch pattern. Never fails.

[Phil]

Oh, and the GFS is perhaps the worst model for surface temperatures. Spectral, non-hydrostatic pile of garbage.

[Phil]

Tomorrow and/or Sunday might be the hottest day(s) of the entire summer west of the cascades.